zerohype

Hi,

Sorry no blog selection today.  I've emailed my members a couple of very decent trades, but I should have some midweek picks posted for you possibly Monday or Tuesday, so check back.

Cheers, and have a great day whatever you're trading and punting!

Hi,

Quite a day with all the technical difficulties Betfair encountered.  Luckily for us it mean't maximum profit on our two trades, as we couldn't trade off.  This puts us on 14 out of 14 winning blog trades!

Some of you may not have been matched in the Nottingham Forest v Doncaster game , as it only dipped under 6 a couple of times when I wrote the blog.  Doncaster gave it a good go, and left Forest still needing a win, but a successful lay bet for us if you got on.

Barcelona B v Ginmastic was a flurry of goals, then backs to the wall for the last 20 mins when they went down to 10.  At 4-0 it wasn't really a worry, and the 2nd tip of the day wins.

Unlucky for my members today, Burnley v Millwall, as we would have traded off Millwall at half time given the run of play.  Burnley had a bad day at the office, and because Betfair imploded we were left with our first trading loss of the year.  Putting us on an impressive 43 out of 44 winning trades overall, so nothing to be too upset about.  :o)

I should have another tip later or tomorrow morning.

Cheers

Hi,

If you didn't get matched on the Donny lay under 6's, it's not looking hopeful at the moment as its drifted out to 7.4 already with a few hours to go.  I would never lay that high, but I'd recommend following the match anyway if it doesn't miraculously move in to 6 or under before the off. 

At any stage if Donny go ahead, the odds to lay them will shoot right down somewhere between 2's and 3's if it's relatively early, maybe lower obviously depending on the time of the goal.  I'd look to lay them then, as I would always fancy Forest to equalize at least, and then there is your trade off point when/if they do! 

This of course depends on if/when Donny score, if it's in the last few minutes, then maybe not!  If it's early enough for a comeback, get on the lay at that point as opposed to taking high odds we currently have.

Just some advice. :o)

Cheers

Hi,

After a very quiet week we’re back in action with a selections in the English Championship, and Spanish Segunda.  I hope to have a selection or two on Sunday depending on team news.

Liquidity is currently quite low in both the Championship and Segunda, but with no Premiership games this weekend I would expect the prices to move in.

Selection One

English Championship

Nottingham Forest v Doncaster

Lay Doncaster @5.8, never higher than 6.  Trade off if Nott Forest go ahead, or the game remains a draw and the odds drift out enough to make approx 60% upwards original profit.

Kick off: 3pm GMT

Analysis:

I'm siding with Notts Forest to end a poor run of five games without a win. Their home record reads, W10D7L1, scoring an impressive 30 goals and conceding 15. Suffering their first defeat at home to Hull in their penultimate match, the confidence might not be high, but if they are to challenge for promotion they need to get past this bad patch now. Nathan Tyson could return to the squad for the game. The forward has missed the last five matches with an ankle problem, but was with the travelling party at the Sheff United game on Tuesday.

Doncaster have picked up a few more points recently, losing only one of their last five. They lost their last away game 5-2 at Leeds which we profited from on the under 2.5, and then held to a 1-1 draw at home to Coventry. Their away record reads, W4D4L10, scoring 26 goals which would be great if they hadn't conceded 41. That's easily the worst defence away. Doncaster will be without leading goalscorer Billy Sharp.

Forest go into the game having suffered back-to-back league defeats for the first time in a year. The Reds have not been beaten in three successive league matches since March 2009.  If Donny make a game of it, I would still fancy Forest to go ahead at some point, even from behind.  They are usually strong, and hard to beat at home.  Forest to Win or Draw!


Selection Two

Spanish Segunda

Barcelona B v Gimnastic

Lay Gimnastic @4.8's, never higher than 6.  Trade off if Barcelona B go ahead, or the game remains a draw and the odds drift out enough to make approx 60% upwards original profit.

Kick off: 5pm GMT

Analysis:

What I like about this game is quite simply the stats and the value.  Barcelona B home record reads, W7D4L3, scoring 24 and conceding 12.  They sit 5th in the Segunda Spanish division, and if they can bag the win and Granada drop two points tomorrow, they move to 4th.  Which is a big incentive for them to win this one and close the gap behind the leading three. 

Gimnastic are hovering near the bottom of the table in 17th spot, their form isn't the best at home or away this season.  The away record reads W3D3L7, scoring 13 but conceding 20.

Looking at home games against bottom 6, Barcelona B have collected an average of 2 points in 2 matches.  Which isn't great, as they seem to play best against teams mid 10 in the table.  Gimnastic though when playing opponents placed in the top 6 of the Segunda were Barcelona B are, have collected an average of 0.56 points in 9 matches this season. If you just only consider home games against top 6 teams, Gimnastic have achieved an average of 0.2 points in 5 matches.  Barcelona B to Win or Draw this one!

Good luck!

Hi All,

Champions league football is so unpredictable, I very rarely get involved with our lay bet trading strategy, and in the Premiership game the odds are just too high for Birmingham right now.  So it's better to hang on to your profit made from our trades so far, until the right match comes along I say!

Have a good day if you're having a trade or punt!

Dear All,

I was hoping to have a selection in the Championship with the Middlesborough v Derby game, but unfortunately Boro have too many injury concerns which includes both senior keepers, along with both first choice centre-halves. Derby are not great at the moment, but I've decided this is a game to avoid with these injuries.

I’ve looked at my other options today, and it would just be punting for the sake of it which I always avoid.  I'll update you tomorrow when I've scanned the week ahead, and should have more of an idea when our next selection will be.

Good luck today if you’re trading or punting!

Hi,

Monday always feels good after a weekend of winners.  With two winning trades for my members, and two Betfair blog tip winners!

This makes it 41 out of 41 winning trades on the year so far, as I only started this blog a month ago.

Saturdays Tip

Leeds v Donny I predicted to LAY Under 2.5 Goals, and then trade off at a decent profit.  We got a little lucky as we couldn't trade off as it wasn't in play, but my analysis was correct and there was really no need to worry with Leeds winning 5-2!

Sundays Tip

Lazio v Palermo I predicted to LAY Palermo and trade off around 60% of original profit.  We could have stayed on for more as Lazio quickly went on to hold a 2-0 victory, but sticking to the trade off rules gave us locked in decent profit, and another comfortable winner.  Laying at 4.9 and hedging off 11.5.

I should have another selection for Tuesday.

Have a great day today whatever you're trading or punting!

Hi,

I’ve just traded off at 11.5, you can probably get better now for a nice green screen!

Cheers

Hi,

I've pondered over a few games today to select for my blog tip, and arrived at today's selection:

Lazio v Palermo

Italian Serie A

Lay Palermo @ 4.9 away to Lazio.  Never take more than 6's, and trade off for 60% if the option arises.

Kick off:

Analysis

What I like about this game is Lazio's home record, W9D3L2, scoring scoring 22 but conceding 12.  Lazio remain in fourth place in Serie A, despite their defeat to Cagliari last weekend. They have 48 points from 27 matches and are 10 points behind leaders Milan.  In none of the last six games in Serie A involving Lazio have more than two goals been scored, so they are strong at the back and will need to be against Palermo. 

Palermo are in eighth place in Serie A with 40 points from 27 matches, six points off a Europa League slot.  Serse Cosmi, who replaced Delio Rossi as the coach after the weekend's 7-0 humiliation to Udinese, is the 17th appointment at Palermo since Maurizio Zamparini took the helm in 2002.  Palermo have the fourth best attack in the Italian top flight this season (44 goals scored), and the second-worst defensive statistics (43 conceded).  Palermo's away record reading W4D2L7, 19 goals scored but 22 conceded.

I think this will be a close game, as Palermo will be trying to shake off the humiliating defeat and get back in contention for a Europa league spot, but Lazio are a hard team to beat at home, and as much as Palermo have an amazing strike partnership I think Lazio will Win or Draw this one.

As always if you can trade off for around 60% original profit at any stage, for example if Lazio go ahead or the game drifts out for a draw around the 70 mins plus mark, I'd always take the green up.  I'll post if the opportunity arises to go green for a decent profit. 

I've emailed a selection to my members today, so check your emails if you haven't already, and you will get an email/sms if we can trade off either match.

Good luck whatever you're trading or punting today!

 

Well I got a little lucky with this one, but my analysis was spot on for the match itself.  Before I could even start this email its turned from 1-2 to 2-2, so it’s a very lively match indeed!

If you followed my advice on this selection, you should now have made a great maximum profit!

Nice!