zerohype

Hi,

After a very quiet week we’re back in action with a selections in the English Championship, and Spanish Segunda.  I hope to have a selection or two on Sunday depending on team news.

Liquidity is currently quite low in both the Championship and Segunda, but with no Premiership games this weekend I would expect the prices to move in.

Selection One

English Championship

Nottingham Forest v Doncaster

Lay Doncaster @5.8, never higher than 6.  Trade off if Nott Forest go ahead, or the game remains a draw and the odds drift out enough to make approx 60% upwards original profit.

Kick off: 3pm GMT

Analysis:

I'm siding with Notts Forest to end a poor run of five games without a win. Their home record reads, W10D7L1, scoring an impressive 30 goals and conceding 15. Suffering their first defeat at home to Hull in their penultimate match, the confidence might not be high, but if they are to challenge for promotion they need to get past this bad patch now. Nathan Tyson could return to the squad for the game. The forward has missed the last five matches with an ankle problem, but was with the travelling party at the Sheff United game on Tuesday.

Doncaster have picked up a few more points recently, losing only one of their last five. They lost their last away game 5-2 at Leeds which we profited from on the under 2.5, and then held to a 1-1 draw at home to Coventry. Their away record reads, W4D4L10, scoring 26 goals which would be great if they hadn't conceded 41. That's easily the worst defence away. Doncaster will be without leading goalscorer Billy Sharp.

Forest go into the game having suffered back-to-back league defeats for the first time in a year. The Reds have not been beaten in three successive league matches since March 2009.  If Donny make a game of it, I would still fancy Forest to go ahead at some point, even from behind.  They are usually strong, and hard to beat at home.  Forest to Win or Draw!


Selection Two

Spanish Segunda

Barcelona B v Gimnastic

Lay Gimnastic @4.8's, never higher than 6.  Trade off if Barcelona B go ahead, or the game remains a draw and the odds drift out enough to make approx 60% upwards original profit.

Kick off: 5pm GMT

Analysis:

What I like about this game is quite simply the stats and the value.  Barcelona B home record reads, W7D4L3, scoring 24 and conceding 12.  They sit 5th in the Segunda Spanish division, and if they can bag the win and Granada drop two points tomorrow, they move to 4th.  Which is a big incentive for them to win this one and close the gap behind the leading three. 

Gimnastic are hovering near the bottom of the table in 17th spot, their form isn't the best at home or away this season.  The away record reads W3D3L7, scoring 13 but conceding 20.

Looking at home games against bottom 6, Barcelona B have collected an average of 2 points in 2 matches.  Which isn't great, as they seem to play best against teams mid 10 in the table.  Gimnastic though when playing opponents placed in the top 6 of the Segunda were Barcelona B are, have collected an average of 0.56 points in 9 matches this season. If you just only consider home games against top 6 teams, Gimnastic have achieved an average of 0.2 points in 5 matches.  Barcelona B to Win or Draw this one!

Good luck!