This one is actually in my notebook Tugay, trainer is very good on tapeta in this sort of grade and also very effective getting wins out of horses he gets from others after getting marks down. Horse back from a fair lay off last time when running choke out and fading latter stages

This horse has dropped 18lb in last 10 runs (11lb since Michael has got him) which would usually have me running away from it in the opposite direction but it is certainly not a negative for this trainer with plenty of similar past acquisitions.

Looking at this race with three lto winners tonight I'd be inclined to leave it and see how it runs 2nd time up back from break. IF it shows up well tonight without winning I would imagine it would be back here for a less competitive 4up race (there are some real duffers available this grade).

I certainly couldn't put anyone off it at a price today though my gut feeling is it's probably one in a run or two.

I'll see how the price goes
Either win are bomb out

Decent run should gone with my gut for the ew

They are all 3up hcps but some options at Wolves early October at 0-60 level so we';; have to see where he enters it next.

AT 4.15

Better luck next time Tangle.

SE...that MJ 2yo a big contender for this week's nap

Mister Allegro?

I'm rarely one for his nurseries because they haven't really been races in general I'd associate with him. But tentative signs in recent seasons his firepower has increased a bit in them.

Generally speaking I don't tend to back many of his lto winners cos it's hard to get long term value with them as a group. But looking at his runners winning their first race lto in a nursery going into another is good form small sample (15-44, 9.79 exp), he doesn't run many with pens (4-9, 2.55 exp) so samples very small looking for similar runners since BFSP.

So samples certainly not offering negs but not reliable due to size either.

Main ? is obviously how much was dependant on the surface last time.I don't tend to listen to trainers comments certainly not to make my mind up on a horse but it should be noted he did use the switch to aw as a big benefit on last run along with being ridden positively we know it was gelded too so which element was the most important is a bit of guesswork at the moment.

I'd be surprised if it drifted and won personally but there's nothing to put anyone off if the market vibes are ok.

think that 2yo probably wins tonight but no price so ponte 2.40 frankel's storm is my nap this week
not a mega strong nap but does flag up on a couple of systems & with hannon horse a NR decided to stick it up
race cut up curtis back on bounce out make all again

It was nibbled earlier and is a very strong stats pick and I think conditions will be spot on today.

As long as it doesn't go off the rails drifting I'll stick it on last minute.

I'm not crazy on hornby but have still played small & also small on haggas in same race

Hoirnby actually won on the last qualifier in this stats group but it was 100/30 fav (4.99 BFSP)

its not that strong but nothing behind fav is so I'm going in

]wish me luck!

no good

front 2 set a steady pace, haggas horse too keen run ok, hornby done it all wrong again horse not good enough anyway

worth a try SE, these small field flat hcaps are often ripe for taking the chalk on
sound reasoning

hornby banged out made all next race

absolute crap

The dam was a strong stayer and the fact it sluiced up on heavy over a mile as a 2yo.

Wouldn't be a massive surprise if he gets it going again up in trip.

Yes it's certainly not a real confident hunch mate but seen many of his do similar.

Time will tell as always.

Hard lines today better luck with next pick. I have to have some of my longer term notebookers come out soon and be in the right races really need to bang in some results getting quite deflated with this comp tbh.

Morning fellas, i've gone for You're Hired EW in the cambridgeshire as well, hoping for a place at 50/1.