Great reserve PDB....won easily

Well Done Team a good first week

Just looking at race now UD.

IF going is GOOD, as described, then it should give older horses a chance to win, at this point in season. Though last few years 3 yods have dominated.

003     Dalakhani     3     Christophe Soumillon     Alain de Royer-Dupré     HH Aga Khan IV     2:32.30
2004     Bago     3     Thierry Gillet     Jonathan Pease     Niarchos Family     2:25.00
2005     Hurricane Run     3     Kieren Fallon     André Fabre     Michael Tabor     2:27.40
2006     Rail Link     3     Stéphane Pasquier     André Fabre     Khalid Abdullah     2:26.30
2007     Dylan Thomas     4     Kieren Fallon     Aidan O'Brien     Magnier / Tabor     2:28.50
2008     Zarkava     3     Christophe Soumillon     Alain de Royer-Dupré     HH Aga Khan IV     2:28.80
2009     Sea the Stars     3     Michael Kinane     John Oxx     Christopher Tsui     2:26.30
2010     Workforce     3     Ryan Moore     Sir Michael Stoute     Khalid Abdullah     2:35.30
2011     Danedream     3     Andrasch Starke     Peter Schiergen     Burg Eberstein / Yoshida     2:24.49
2012     Solemia     4     Olivier Peslier     Carlos Laffon-Parias     Wertheimer et Frère     2:37:68
2013     Treve     3     Thierry Jarnet     Criquette Head     Joaan al Thani     2:32:04
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When SOLEMIA won as a 4 yo in 2012 ...it was SOFT going. This horse was beaten in October 2011 in a GROUP 2 race for 3yos + ON GOOD GOING by a French bred 3 yo.....trained by A De Royer-Dupre.......the trainer of DOLNIYA, a French bred 3 yo.



So perhaps the going , if GOOD, will help DOLNIYA to do well in this race, especially with 3 wins i a row in form and lightly raced.


The trainer (ADR-D) has won race twice ( 2003 and 2008) with 3 yods....so knows how to win this race wit 3 yods.

DOLNIYA has S A AGA KHAN as owner , and appears to be same family that the 2 winners that won for ADR-D had .....This family has won race a few times....so they appear to taget the race.

FILLIES have  won race 3 times in last 11 years as 3 yods.....and in same period 4 yod fillies have won race only once (SOLEMIA on SOFT going). However, with going being GOOD, perhaps this gives a filly a better chance against the colts due to easier conditions.

Prix Niel winner this year was ECTOT.......undefeated 3 yo........but strong doubts about this one winning. at the distance.

Taghrooda won King George etc........but defeated by TAPISTRY in next race on GOOD going....but may well have had PRIX DE L'ARC as main target???

C Soumillon has not won race....so must be high up on his targets to win on DOLNIYA  Soumillon was also 2nd last year on Japanese horse against TREVE.....so has to be well up for race this year!

So a fair number of factors in favour of DOLNIYA UD.............and only thing not clear on is the DRAW.

If going is GOOD the 2    5 yods might find going favourable.....but which one likely to win? I suspect Gold Ship might be better one of two....as lightly raced and other one might be a pace setter?

The going ...if GOOD makes race harder to figure out.....so also not going for this race today for TEAM............DOLNIYA appears to have every chance to win though UD, so might go for it in DIV 2 ???????


GL with bets today.

BTW ....SL appear to have an error on RACE CARD re owner of DOLNIYA......they have S A Agan Khan.....but according to RP ...this is the BREEDER ....and the owner is H H Aga Khan....

btw Soumillon has won the race with Zarkava & Dalakhani.

In top 5 places ....3 of them had a low DRAW....so TAGHROODA drawn 15 did really well....DOLNIYA had a fair run ...but just too far off pace to get there...unfortunately.

4 yo winner on GOOD going......suspect had it been soft a 3 yo probably would have won ...TAGHROODA probably.

Back to normal racing.....Enjoyed race though!

One for a dodgy Tuesday. 

Posted 10 pts on......

3.10 Leic:  Knife Point. "Improver won't mind the rain"

G/L this week DEMONS. 

"if you~dig" 

Having seen someone's Arc thing at the weekend, and talking myself out of Treve, I've gone with a horse tomorrow that's named after me.

Maybe not lol?

Good Luck today Steph  and undecided.

Nice inner there Steph

Thanks all, glad to help :)

Great winner Steph Well Done

Sorry for late post on afternoon shift this week.

stephaniebot 08 Oct 14 21:35 
Having seen someone's Arc thing at the weekend, and talking myself out of Treve, I've gone with a horse tomorrow that's named after me.

Maybe not lol?
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stephaniebot - I thought you opted for "Stephanie Francis".......but "Prettyasapicture" is better name for how we feel after it fighting its way home ...wd

GL RB today.

Saturday 3pm rule:
There is a cut-off for posting selections to prevent late tactical play.
As it is a little unfair if you pick a subsequent nr after 3pm, (to not be able to replace it), you may post a reserve.
The reserve is tied to the original selection, whether it's posted by you or on your behalf.
Once original and reserve is posted it cannot be changed.

The downside of this reserve system is that it can get a little confusing/messy, a bit more work for me and indeed for all who pick after 3pm, needing to come up with reserves. So see how it goes for a couple of weeks and let me know what you think.

Good Luck with your selections today, it is very tight at the top so one winner could move us up along way.

Have left a message on FBF's thread on GENERAL BETTING UD.......so hopefully he responds before say 2.45....

RAIN at Newmarket is making the 3.50 race extremely difficult....

Initially Morrison one caught my eye - NEARLY CAUGHT ....and generally the first one that catches the eye is one that runs a fair race. As a 4 yo RAIN probably helps this one.

After checking out DIGEANTA .....this looks  a horse set out for the race......but RAIN might stop it winning.....though opted for it in DIV 2.

COMMUNICATOR also looks set out for this race...... probably a bit RAIN might help it running wel.

EARTH AMBER probably need s a lotta rain.....

So never used this race for TEAM.
==========================================

I've put up DUKE DES CHAMPS in 6.00 race ...as a RESERVE in case my 5.30 selection does not run  for team. May well need more RAIN ......and at CHEPSTOW fair chance it will come. If FBF does not post a selection by 2.45 pm ......I think DDC can be used as a selection for FBF??????


Hopefully FBF responds to my post on his thread on GENERAL BETTING FORUM. May well have "better things to do" though

Leave it to you Captain

yeah, don't panic, don't panic!

good stuff, just need a reserve for it now, and for Aquarius, as it probably won't be needed I'll put forward a suggestion Shine A Diamond 5.10 Hex - Win, but I'm not in form so only to be used as a last resort