Be quick

Can anybody still get a bet on with them bigger than £1.87

Good spot.

cheers cider im on[;)]

10/3 now. [;)]

Indeed, clueless wouldn't do it justice !

Hope that's reverse forecast odds [;)]

its either One D or Rebecca for 2nd.

bookies might aswell pay out on Matt now[:)]

That is a truly awful bet

great spot, Cider. I've emptied my balance onto it. And it's now 100/30!

yep, cheers cider. Only allowed £15 but it all helps

cheers cider, decent value that i reckon

Im with tutunka cant see why its value on the maths it slightly below the true odds by my reckoning.

should be at least 7/2 imo

Bex/Matt for me, [;)]

stu

Do you think she'll beat him?

lou - is that not implied in his post or are you deliberately being an idiot?

lol GTL

Lou - yes.

stu

Fair enough.  I think it's all over myself in Matt's favour but she's a nice price.  I'm trying to back her myself (got some on) just to make her a taker so I'm level if she wins.  Don't fancy One D at all myself.

you think it's all over, but you're backing the 3rd favourite?

you are a TOTAL FANTASIST lou.

But she's a false 3rd favourite GTL [;)]

George

Yes I'd have her second in of what's left now.  Don't think she'll win it but just in case rather than lose I'll make her a taker.  Laid her at 4.53 all in, 90% of that before the finals started on the TV so not a bad ploy.  I'll have about £330 on her to cover me but I do begrudge it I must admit as I don't think she'll win ............... but you never know of course.

I wouldn't begrudge it Lou I'd just call it a shrewd move [;)]

Oh yes it is shrewd as she could well win it so rather than me end up doing about £1700 if she did win at least I'd end up level devils.

Lou after nailing your colours so doggedly to the matt mast for so long what pray has caused this doubt to set in?Surely a singing candlestick can't threaten the Special One

George

No I don't think she will but I'm over 3k green on Matt so £330 is worth it just in case.  I do honestly THINK though that it's giving away £330 I really do.  Obviously if any of the others win I've lost £330 more!

Lou with gambling you either take a stand or play it safe. With a £3k green on matt greening up on Rebecca is a no brainer. I'd be begrudging it if I felt the need to green up on 1D

One D could win it though George to be fair.  I'll almost certainly leave it at that though with just Rebecca as a 'taker'.

They could Lou but I don't think they have the broad appeal to win this. The 30/40 year old women in my office don't even mention them in their chat. In fact I think they are bottom 2 material this week which is ironic given Cher's apparent unpopularity.

Prolly no bottom 2 this week GB2

Although, always a chance of change ;-)

90% of your rebecca lays were pre-show and your average lay is 4.53?

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

The polls are starting to not show the love for 1D GB and there's just something about Cher that makes me think she could pip them.

Kicking myself a bit with my poll stats this week. Called katie bottom and mary in b3 but then had wagner/cher tied next. Called it about 6 hours early as there was a measurable move against wagner on twitter later on compared to the huge support for him post Biffagate. Biffa probably kept him safe last week.

Also didn't factor in the usual b2 bounce that cher clearly got.

Spotting when the novelty act's bubble has burst is very hard but with hindsight it was a big ask for wagner to avoid b3 this week.

George bailey

An office............. what do you do for a living may I ask?

I work in an office [;)]

george, are you in "the industry"?

Where exactly did you do this pre-show laying Lou?

Hopefully not a Tea boy if your bags keep splitting

Ah, ok, first week before 1st live show I guess

Yes I'm in "the industry" GMT I'm katie's grandma's "agent" [;)]

A1 we used to use industrial strength tea bags but what with the cuts we now use them really cheap thin ones...fortunately for me

I use tea bags twice in my office GB2

But you must remember to take them out before the milk goes in

Using the money saved to pile on Cher to win

You trying to trip me up as well now George?

Just for you.   UK / The X Factor 2010 / Winner  Rebecca Ferguson Lay   03-Oct-10
22:16    5 350.00  5 04-Oct-10 18:53   

UK / The X Factor 2010 / Winner  Rebecca Ferguson Lay   03-Oct-10
22:05    4 16.00  4 03-Oct-10 22:06 


hmmmmmmmm

Not really, I was confused to your meaning

More?

UK / The X Factor 2010 / Winner  Rebecca Ferguson Lay 1  12-Nov-10
09:33    3.05 4.00  3.05 12-Nov-10 09:50   

UK / The X Factor 2010 / Winner  Rebecca Ferguson Lay  12-Nov-10
09:28    3.05 100.00  3.05 12-Nov-10 09:47

Rebecca Ferguson    5.73    £7,140.10    £33,767.60

My lays are bigger than yours, anyway

Yes I don't go in THAT heavy.  Only had £180 back on her matches so far though.  Looking for about another £150's worth.

lou - if those are your lays, then 77.9% of your lays are pre-show.

That's some position you have taken re Rebecca GB.

Re Cher save the tea bag money as she can't win; we all know that. I still think there is some value in thinking she could pip 1D to the final three but certainly only for pennies not for real money.

She is quite capable of putting on a good old fashioned saturday night light entertainemt all singing all dancing spectacular that just might appeal to enough casual voters to trump 1D's increasingly bland "performances". Other than with the teenies I suspect the average viewer knows their names even less than their mentor.

Don't fret GB2, I'm a marketmaker in the first few weeks of show. Still a few k green on the girl

Just about given up like....

George Bailey

Yes but don't forget he's obviously backed her too.  He aint gonna lose £34k if she wins.  Hope not anyway!

Never understood how the big early layers work their profit. I assume its all about trading but what happens if say you are the poor sod who laid ulrika at 80s? Presumably more than made up for by the also rans who get laid then drift?

With my stakes I can just back or occasionally lay when odds on.

George yes I wonder that myself.  Everything's always to 100% on here so how can you always buy something and sell it for a better price.  It's a bit toss of a coin isn't it?  That said obviously judgement comes into play whereby they feel his price will drop so I'll buy now or she'll go higher so I'll sell etc etc but hard to get it right I think.  For instance I laid Wagner weeks ago at 144 thinking he was a million to one chance.  Now if I'd have known he'd have ended up about 10/1 ........................

GB2 - there are some terrific value lays to be had if you catch them right.

wagner @ 11.0 and cher @ 6.8 probably my two best this year.

while laying jamie archer at about 9/2 last year was one of my best ever bets!

gutted that i missed out on mary at 6/1 this year!

Neither my nerves nor my bank would allow me to lay anything at 144 Lou.

GMT I can see the value in laying as the series progresses and we get to know the acts and who is voting for them. Agree with Cher as i backed at 14s and laid at 7s myself pre/post Stay. If I had the money I would have laid Wagner till the cows come home at 10s. Might have had a mild heart flutter if he had survived this week but would have known he couldn't win...marmite never does.

My query was about those who take positions very early doors. Like Lou says judgement has to come into it or else some high techie programme that does the maths automatically.

George

It's pure judgement full stop.  We can't know what share prices are going to go up as we'd obviously all buy.  They're using their judgement a bit like you did with Cher backing her at 14 and laying at 7.  I suppose you've just got to get more right than wrong.