early doors predictions (the forum,) -part 2

katie & mary...cher saved in the sing off

Mary bottom and goes.

Katie v Waggy sing off and katie survives but this time to cheers!

I just started a thread that should have been added to this, sorry.

What are your figures based on mugptr?

Katie, Mary, 1D

copied this over from elsewhere

Very difficult this week.  Much prefer it when there is a single elimination with the bottom two.  Had a good series of predictions and getting decent odds, esp Aiden and Cher.

With Matt looking likely to have a large portion of the vote, it's a bit of a scrap for the others.  Cher and Wagner probably enough support to keep them from bottom.  Maybe Katie's support to keep her out of the bottom last week is short lived like Rachel last year.

If I had to call it.  Katie first out.

Mary and Cher sing off.  Mary sings better than Cher.
Louise and Dannii send Cher home.
Cheryl and SCowell send Mary home.
Deadlock - Mary goes.

I think you're spot on with Katie, Squares.  Last week was a temporary reprieve...  I expect normal service to be resumed and the Weasel will be back in the danger zone this week, probably gone first.  She simply hasn't got enough support.

henry - it was just based on the forum putting up 2 names,quite accurate last week.

katie bottom, mary loses out to cher in sing off (assuming there is one).

Bottom 3
Katie goes 1st with lowest votes

sing off
Mary
Rebecca

Rebecca is saved over Mary in sing off

Just some food for thought:-

At last 7 last year, the voting figures for the 7 remaining acts were:-

Stacey 26%
Joe    16%
Danyl  16%
Jedward 15%
Olly    10%
Lloyd   10%
Jamie    8%

Olly, the eventual runner up would've been in bottom 3

grendel

Interesting.  Good stuff.

The previous year Alexandra Burke polled 4th bottom with 7 left and was 3rd bottom with 6 left a week later

never count ur money till result is in OFFICIALY as previous years show shocks in store;watch matt drift over the next week and certain others shorten

Yes interesting post grendel. Gives me hope for Rebecca who I now see as clear with Matt though as is obvious things can change quickly.

For me the most interesting % there is Jedward. Comfortably outside bottom 3. With more acts in this year wagner has had to swim against the tide of panel negativity further/harder to get this far. If anything I think the pro wagner momentum is growing plus his Creep came out well in terms of viewer polls so even on the none anti cowell measure he would do ok this week I think.

2/1 him to avoid bottom 3 looks value to me.

Katie bottom

Cher and 1D in sing-off - cher goes.

Purely on the basis that I think we're reaching that point in the show when the teen vote starts to get squeezed and the acts that get 97% of their votes from them start to struggle.

Mary is still a bit of an unknown given that she hasn't actually hit the bottom 2 before and could be down there - but I can see her appeal with the older demographics that aren't well represented on twitter and there isn't much competition for votes with her sort of act.

Having said that, any combination of Mary / 1D / Rebecca / Cher in the sing-off wouldn't surprise me.

I was just wondering whether those figures and the subsequent movements are so relevant with the situation we have this year with the 4 extra contestants and double eliminations.

Those 2 years, at the 7-act stage there were still 3 shows left to go before the final (final 3) whereas this year there is only one more weekend. 

And we're still unsure whether there will be 3 or 4 for the final weekend.  Perhaps one of those in the industry could tell us!!

And, with this format, the judges' involvement has continued until a later stage.  There are normally 3 weeks before the final with PV only.

squares, my info is 4, and that the idea is for each to have an act in the final.
as of last week, even the production co wasn't 100 per cent sure of cowell's intentions.

Cher bottom. Weasel saved over Rebecca in sing off. Tantrums and tears before bedtime on forum.

Cheers Nick.  That has always made most sense to me.

I wasn't including you as  a faux "insider" btw.

ha, no, thanks squares, i am not an insider but i have a small handle due to remaining contacts from the time when i was....

but of course, everyone connected is so cagey these days, impossible to get anything of real import, which is why i am 99 per cent sure all voting leaks this year are a pile of c rap

if voting leaks were genuine we'd have big brother eviction style favourites each week ... i.e. long odds on, but surprises have not materialised in betting movements

true dat

Tough one

Mary goes bottom

Katie vs 1d

Katie goes

Can I make it the magnificent seven?

interesting gb, mary  not katie bottom...on what grounds?

Toss up I think, equal green on both nick

yeah, i am double green on katie than mary, and i am thinking about putting mary profit on katie too. just really think she'll be bottom. should i, shouldnt i, that's the question...

Wagner goes tonight. I'm heavily on him to go first, at half the odds I could have got if I'd waited , with a cover bet on Mary 10th-out and a tenner on Waggy 11th.

So Wagner 1st, s/o between Katie and Mary and it's goodbye Mary.

But agree with FLL and GB that there's value backing OD for B3 but think it's a week too early to have any real hope of getting paid out.

So you have Cher in final othh?

is that just your opinion or have you had wind of how they are doing in the voting ? It does seem as though they have thrown everything at getting Wagner out this week

God knows who's in the final, George, formats of the semi finals and number of acts eliminated next week etc etc.

And fishloginman: just opinion. I think they've thrown the kitchen sink at getting rid of Wagner this week, right down to the faint praise. That's when you know they're getting serious!

I've taken what 2.62 365 would let me have on Waggy avoiding b3

But I do think it's interesting that it's a b3 and this was announced an hour after the lines opened

cheers othh

Are we sure that there will be a sing off?

There's a rumour on the forums that it's just the B2 with the public who will get the chop.

Bottom 3, Mary, Katie and 1 of either Wagner or Rebecca

If Wagner has any type of support he could well avoid bottom 3 and that could mean a sing off

between Katie and Rebecca. I wouldnt trust Cowell and his puppets to do the right thing so

40's about Rebecca for 11th elimination looks a value bet

jesus fig that throws a spanner

how would that effect tenth elim as well? how would they know who would be tenth????

Cant see any reason why there wouldn't be a sing off.

More chance of Wagner being botton 3 than bottom 2 ( stae the obvious)

Adds to the tension/drama and puts Cowell more in control

A 1 hour show with a 3 minute segment on reading out the vote result doesn't seem right imo

Could mean all our winning bets go up spout, in worst case scenario

figures so far (roughly)
katie - 11
mary - 10
wag - 2
1d - 2
cher 3
rebecca - 2
matt - 0

i know gb, worrying

GeorgeBrush

You've been good at the bottom 2/3 predictions.  Don't really touch it myself but who do you think this week.  I think it's very open and I wouldn't be at all surprised if it were any one of the other 6 bar Matt.  Almost a lottery pick for me.

It's on here somewhere Lou.

I agree, Matt the only absolutely safe haven for green. Even Rebecca vulnerable, though not as much as my picks....

Annoying, because you can normally pick out 2 or 3 who are safe at this stage

George

Yes gun at my head not Rebecca but very open I think so you never know.  The acts must all be really worried.

Matt will be a bit smug. They won't leave him till last safe either

George

Purely guessing obviously but I've a feeling one of the first two names if not THEE first name out will be Matt.

My gut instinct for bottom 3 is Cher, One Direction and Katie

Ok grendel I'll go Katie, Cher, Wagner.

I agree with HF

Mary bottom

Katie vs Wagner

Katie stays. (I will still boo though)

I have the same bottom three still - Katie, Mary and Wagner, although the market is now suggesting that it'll be Cher joining Katie and Mary, not Waggy...

Matt and 1D very safe - but apart from that it is a lottery, as other people have said. Any combination from the rest in bottom 3 wudn't really surprise me.

novelty

I'm not so sure that One D aren't in the 'lottery draw' with the rest of them.

I think they are safe this week. I could possibly see Matt and Bex having more votes but not another two of the acts. Surely not? It's between Wagner, Cher, Mary and Katie. It has to be. I'd love 1D to be in bottom three but can't see it happening.

I wouldn't be surprised about 1D being in the mix either tbh.

We're getting to the point were you need support from more than one demographic, and I don't think 1D have that - they're singing just isn't good enough to appeal to anyone other than teenage girls.

Cher and Katie bottom two...dunno who'd be in with them though...so don't know who'd be going first out of those two...

Wagner to win fb group state:

reports from twitter coming out say wagner is in fourth bottom place just a head of rebecca we dont wont him droping in bottom 3 as the judges will vote him of every one cast xtra votes tonight on 09016161101

I can't help but think reading this thread and fll's comments re twitter leak that the wagner market might be one to avoid.

Cowell desperately wants him out and he is quite capable of going for either a bottom 2 or 3 depending on the vote.

Oh dear I'm getting embroiled in conspiracy theories. This assumes his Satanic Majesty knows the vote of course

Tutunka1 - the voting leak comes from the person whose previous leaks have been hit or miss - she's got some right, but some have been way way off(plus suspiciously, she didn't predict at all last week when it was very unpredictable).

figures so far (roughly)
katie - 16
mary - 12
cher - 6
wag - 4
1d - 4
rebecca - 2
matt - 0

cheers ghatroonh, can't say i've followed the rumours this series but it's good to see some insightful comments

OK, it's as per shows 1&2, so I'm told. So last place goes, and then a sing-off between next two.

And please don't bet according to Twitter rumours.

cheers Mr hush

10th - Mary

11th Rebecca V Cher (Cher wins)

I agree with Mr Hush - Twitter leak is ridiculous. Essentially it's saying any of five could be in the bottom three! Hardly the most insightful leak of all time! Even if the leak was true - it would still be so hard to predict who wud finish bottom three due to how close it's meant to be.

Who'd have thought this series would suddenly become so unpredictable 2 or 3 weeks a go.

the leaks are not genuine, if they were would we have a 7/4ish fav. 5 mins before show starts

to be 10th elim. that is

final figures (roughly)
katie - 16
mary - 13
cher - 6
wag - 4
1d - 4
rebecca - 3
matt - 0

At last!  After messing up my elimination bets in the last two weeks, back on track with Katie at 7/2 early doors on Monday, followed by Waggy at evens to go...  Thank Figgy for that!