X Factor 2010
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22 Nov 10
16:21
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Date Joined:
24 Dec 05
Matt
The default winner, as he has been from his bootcamp performance.
A good looking guy who has a pretty decent if uninspiring (for me) voice, who on the whole comes over well on the show if you buy into his mock sincerity. Which most appear to do so.
His so called 'outburst' at Wagner last night was a fuss about nothing and will have done him no harm whatsoever.
He'd need to reproduce one of his foul mouthed newspaper rants on one of the live shows to do himself any real damage and I suspect he's way too cute to do that.
A worthy favoruite but beatable.
1D
Another OK performance this week to add to their previous OK performances.
Will OK before enough to win with the help of Cowell? Maybe, as we saw last year with Joe ;), but I still believe they'll come up well short and could find themselves in a 'shock' B2 in the next couple of weeks.
When I look on twitter every week I struggle to find any support beyond text speaking teenage girls.
They're just not broadening their support and I believe they'll come up well short against an on form Rebecca and Matt.
I can see why the market fears them given they have Cowell in their corner, but I'm far from certain that he actually wants them to win above others
Way too short for me.
Rebecca
The best voice in one of these shows ever (for melv ;) )
Not this week though. She started badly and it went downhill from there. I thought she was going to stop at one point, so fairplay to her for getting to the end and despite Cowell's praise, for realising and admitting that she was rubbish.
Just a one off? As a backer and a fan I hope so, but the worry has to be that she won't regain her confidence that she'd been gaining over the previous weeks.
The odds are she'll nail at least one of her songs this week and Cowell will heap praise on her and congratulate her on an excellent comeback.
He clearly still wants her to win, as we saw with him picking her out again last night, despite her below par performance and he'll favour her in the final over 1D imo. Assuming she regains her form of course.
I can see why the market has lost a little confidence in her, but for me it's been overdone and one week I reckon one of these flip flops will stick.
Cher
Where was her massive fanbase this week? Out tarmacing pensioners drives no doubt. (one for the daily mail readers)
More seriously though, she doesn't have a massive fanbase. Just a small and very vocal one, who as the numbers dwindled, was always going to be swamped by the mainstream viewers and voters. Just as Aidens fanbase was and I suspect 1D's will be too.
Rapping just isn't voter friendly on a show like this and her sneering, rather cocky looking face means she was always going to struggle to endear herself to the audience.
My niece described her as looking like one of the girls at school who would bully you and reading general internet opinion she's not alone in that thought.
As I've said before, she's not just marmite, she's that swedish rotting herring.
Virtually no hope and should probably be the outsider of the field.
Wagner
Very little chance. Little is better than none though.
The little hope is a RATM type mass campaign which could give Cowell the ultimate poke in the eye by having someone who can't sing or dance winning his flagship show.
What a glorious dream that is. You may say I'm a dreamer but I'm not the only one, etc....
I know others disagree but for me the maths are possible. 500,000 people multi voting for him in the final would see him winning easily. iirc there were nearly 1M who signed up for the RATM campaign and in terms of motivation a Christmas no.1 was nothing compared with this massively greater prize.
Mary
Not a huge amount to say. A very decent singer who I'm sure appeals more to this audience than some of those shorter in the market.
Cowell obviously knows that as since week 1 he's been loath to give her too much praise.
I'm sure her song and performance was right up his alley this week, but his comments were very muted.
It suggests to me that she's still polling well and he's afraid she'll take the 3rd spot in the final above his peado project.
No real chance of winning but could be a surpise (to some) finalist.
Katie
If Vickers was marmite and Cher is swedish rotting fish, then Katie is horse meat.
The French may well like their horse meat and having watched a few overly dramatic French films they clearly like their drama queens, but neither are very British.
Corned beef and Stoicism is much more our thing.
On a personal note, along with Rebecca, she's the one who I look forward to most each week.
She's always very watchable, but rarely very likeable.
Surely only a loon or a Frenchman could believe she has a cat in hells chance of winning.
A toss up between her and Cher who should be the bigger price. Given she's been bottom only the 4 times, I'd probably favour her.
So it's still a 2 horse race for me. Matt and Rebecca, with Rebecca storming to victory and replacing Cheryl as our new national sweetheart.
All honest and dishonest views welcomed.
The default winner, as he has been from his bootcamp performance.
A good looking guy who has a pretty decent if uninspiring (for me) voice, who on the whole comes over well on the show if you buy into his mock sincerity. Which most appear to do so.
His so called 'outburst' at Wagner last night was a fuss about nothing and will have done him no harm whatsoever.
He'd need to reproduce one of his foul mouthed newspaper rants on one of the live shows to do himself any real damage and I suspect he's way too cute to do that.
A worthy favoruite but beatable.
1D
Another OK performance this week to add to their previous OK performances.
Will OK before enough to win with the help of Cowell? Maybe, as we saw last year with Joe ;), but I still believe they'll come up well short and could find themselves in a 'shock' B2 in the next couple of weeks.
When I look on twitter every week I struggle to find any support beyond text speaking teenage girls.
They're just not broadening their support and I believe they'll come up well short against an on form Rebecca and Matt.
I can see why the market fears them given they have Cowell in their corner, but I'm far from certain that he actually wants them to win above others
Way too short for me.
Rebecca
The best voice in one of these shows ever (for melv ;) )
Not this week though. She started badly and it went downhill from there. I thought she was going to stop at one point, so fairplay to her for getting to the end and despite Cowell's praise, for realising and admitting that she was rubbish.
Just a one off? As a backer and a fan I hope so, but the worry has to be that she won't regain her confidence that she'd been gaining over the previous weeks.
The odds are she'll nail at least one of her songs this week and Cowell will heap praise on her and congratulate her on an excellent comeback.
He clearly still wants her to win, as we saw with him picking her out again last night, despite her below par performance and he'll favour her in the final over 1D imo. Assuming she regains her form of course.
I can see why the market has lost a little confidence in her, but for me it's been overdone and one week I reckon one of these flip flops will stick.
Cher
Where was her massive fanbase this week? Out tarmacing pensioners drives no doubt. (one for the daily mail readers)
More seriously though, she doesn't have a massive fanbase. Just a small and very vocal one, who as the numbers dwindled, was always going to be swamped by the mainstream viewers and voters. Just as Aidens fanbase was and I suspect 1D's will be too.
Rapping just isn't voter friendly on a show like this and her sneering, rather cocky looking face means she was always going to struggle to endear herself to the audience.
My niece described her as looking like one of the girls at school who would bully you and reading general internet opinion she's not alone in that thought.
As I've said before, she's not just marmite, she's that swedish rotting herring.
Virtually no hope and should probably be the outsider of the field.
Wagner
Very little chance. Little is better than none though.
The little hope is a RATM type mass campaign which could give Cowell the ultimate poke in the eye by having someone who can't sing or dance winning his flagship show.
What a glorious dream that is. You may say I'm a dreamer but I'm not the only one, etc....
I know others disagree but for me the maths are possible. 500,000 people multi voting for him in the final would see him winning easily. iirc there were nearly 1M who signed up for the RATM campaign and in terms of motivation a Christmas no.1 was nothing compared with this massively greater prize.
Mary
Not a huge amount to say. A very decent singer who I'm sure appeals more to this audience than some of those shorter in the market.
Cowell obviously knows that as since week 1 he's been loath to give her too much praise.
I'm sure her song and performance was right up his alley this week, but his comments were very muted.
It suggests to me that she's still polling well and he's afraid she'll take the 3rd spot in the final above his peado project.
No real chance of winning but could be a surpise (to some) finalist.
Katie
If Vickers was marmite and Cher is swedish rotting fish, then Katie is horse meat.
The French may well like their horse meat and having watched a few overly dramatic French films they clearly like their drama queens, but neither are very British.
Corned beef and Stoicism is much more our thing.
On a personal note, along with Rebecca, she's the one who I look forward to most each week.
She's always very watchable, but rarely very likeable.
Surely only a loon or a Frenchman could believe she has a cat in hells chance of winning.
A toss up between her and Cher who should be the bigger price. Given she's been bottom only the 4 times, I'd probably favour her.
So it's still a 2 horse race for me. Matt and Rebecca, with Rebecca storming to victory and replacing Cheryl as our new national sweetheart.
All honest and dishonest views welcomed.
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Replies: 273
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actually, i pretty much fully agree with just about all of that!!
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Are you being honest Papa?
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I agree with most of that, but, I just cant see Rebecca being a national sweetheart
Theres something about her that just doesnt come across well imo listening to the judges comments she just stands there nodding like the Churchill dog Her voice this week was simply awful and if that was at the auditions she wouldnt have got through. She obviously has confidence issues and I cant see that getting any better after saturdays fiasco |
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just my HONEST opinion fll. it's no better or worse than yours.
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A1
They're not STILL pushing her surely after that debacle? |
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Fair enough A1.
The national sweetheart was abit of a joke, but she's at least as likeable, to my mind much more likeable, than Leona. I agree the confidence thing is a worry. She may have lost it for good and if so us backers are fvcked. |
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Just re-watching results show , when they call out rebeccas name she turns to Cherly and says, "Oh i was so scared ,i was so scared"
For me she's not improving like she should be. As the acts get less and less I think she will get worse as she realises she could be going out |
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A good write up
 always interesting to hear how others' thinking is structured.Have to say I disagree when it comes to Rebecca, but our opinions on her have differed for a while. Not broad enough appeal, failed to make the final step up that the other winners have, and little teeny vote behind her. Can really see her limping in 3rd/4th. Only 3 weeks left time is running out to get into a prime position, I think it's too late. Vote tranference between 1D and Cher I think is interesting. Cher voters seem very likely to be 1D fans also, so with her demise comes a boost in 1D's votes. Very much a one way thing though. Can't see the winner needing 6 million votes this year, so that gives 1D a reasonable chance. However Matt as the default winner with broad appeal seems difficult to overcome barring further drops in his performances/support. Just needs 1 more good performance to clinch it. A "teeny favourite" always seems to make it into the final 2 aka JLS, Olly, Ray, Leon. (3 of whom notably hit the bottom 2 late on. Cher??) Though the one with broader appeal usually wins aka Joe, Alex, Leona. The "best" contestant without the teeny vote seems to roll in about third/fourth aka Stacey, Ben, Diana, Niki, Brenda etc Based on previous series I think most likely is 1st: Matt 2nd: 1 Direction 3rd/4th: Rebecca |
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jack, i am almost entirely in agreement with your post. i think rebecca could be pipped for third too, by mary or even wagner....
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figgy,
I like to disagree with people usually but unfortunately you seem to have hit many nails on their heads. Am I right in assuming that you are now on the ignore list? |
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Did someone say something.........
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Yep agreed nick
those seem the two most likely |
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jack
Yes 3rd at best Rebecca for me. 4th/5th even perhaps. |
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Cheers Jack.
Good to read your thoughts too. I have to disagree thought that the teenie vote, or the vocal teenie vote is that important. I just don't believe the teenage girls on twitter or FB who pledge their undying love to the latest heartthrob, have any sizeable impact on the final result. Where were they when Aiden went out and Cher needed their support this week? I believe It's the over 30's and 40's who decide the winner and that won't be voted for Cher or 1D without a huge amount of prompting. |
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they*
HF - it seems so  Rather sad for Lou really that he won't know who are the B2 on my twitter stats next week. |
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Good post fll.
It will be hard to keep Matt and One Direction out the final, but my view is that the third place in the final is not a given for Rebecca and I am not as convinced as you that Simon wants her to win. It's only my view, but she may have reached a plateau and I'm yet to be convinced she can (or even believes she can) go higher. I do like Rebecca and enjoy her voice, but does she has the X-Factor? Then again, I have an all-green book because I am rotten judge of talent and to prove this...the performer I think has the X-Factor and who I most look forward to seeing each week is Katie. Best Regards |
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a quality post.
I'm one of the maths class that thinks the Wagner pipedream cannot succeed. The RATM crusade was a completely different battle/campaign/crusade You cannot beat a Matt or a Rebecca over a 2 day vote.The anger to defeat them simply is not there. RATM had a real vengeance because it was a big anthemic rock track up against am anaemic cover version which was so manufactured that it was meant for a girl to sing. It was also about reclaimimg the Xmas no.1 for the GBP from another faceless XF act. Wagner cannot deliver on that front. He's also getting worse every week.Great interview though |
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In the barrage of stuff he doesn't know that wont even make a ripple Figgy! [;)]
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Also where were they when the mcfly guy went out 4th or 5th in the opera show.
They were hugely vocal on twitter and FB about how he must win, but he failed miserably, despite the fact he was actually pretty good. |
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Hi lg, you must be a Frenchman
 I agree there's always a danger that when you lose momentum in these shows it can be hard to regain it. She missed an open goal on saturday. Though given the song she was asked to sing it was rather like playing with a deflated beach ball. So I'll excuse her for that, but a nervy wait to see if she can recapture the magic (for some of us), this saturday. aa - yep, it's a long shot. I just think it's less of a long shot than Katie or Cher winning. |
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Agree laughing ..... not about Katie though sorry.
It will be hard to keep Matt and One Direction out the final, but my view is that the third place in the final is not a given for Rebecca and I am not as convinced as you that Simon wants her to win. It's only my view, but she may have reached a plateau and I'm yet to be convinced she can (or even believes she can) go higher. I do like Rebecca and enjoy her voice, but does she has the X-Factor? Then again, I have an all-green book because I am rotten judge of talent and to prove this...the performer I think has the X-Factor and who I most look forward to seeing each week is Katie. Best Regards |
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excellent opening post and some excellent responses - just like the old days on here and just how it should be.
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Take your point fll, the teeny vote alone isn't really enough to win
 but I still think you have to have them on your side. If the middle aged females really did decide these shows then I'm certain Ben/Stacey/Niki etc would've done better.I find it slightly ironic that you have this view and yet have such an accurate Twitter stats thread surely teen girls make up a large percentage of those numbers.Not looking for an argument btw |
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on this note it strikes me that the 8s on cheryl losing all her acts first is a truly preposterous price. matt and one d nailed on for final, is it really 8s that rebecca gets more votes than mary, with ireland and tesco's behind her considerable frame, and wagner, who is sailing along comfortably on the anti cowell ticket and could conceivably (although i hear and respect aa's recent post) pick up even more as it becomes more and more of a reality. i know lots of people whom wouldnt bother voting now, but if he got to the final (4 in the final) they might think it's on and get involved. it could happen, half a million dissenters multiple voting. 8s, mmmmm
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nick
Sorry but I agree again! Loving the hmmmm at the end too! on this note it strikes me that the 8s on cheryl losing all her acts first is a truly preposterous price. matt and one d nailed on for final, is it really 8s that rebecca gets more votes than mary, with ireland and tesco's behind her considerable frame, and wagner, who is sailing along comfortably on the anti cowell ticket and could conceivably (although i hear and respect aa's recent post) pick up even more as it becomes more and more of a reality. i know lots of people whom wouldnt bother voting now, but if he got to the final (4 in the final) they might think it's on and get involved. it could happen, half a million dissenters multiple voting. 8s, mmmmm |
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We're on the same wavelength nick, grabbed 9's this morning
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Good fairly ramp free appraisal ffl! totally agree about Cher.i am concerned about 1 direction though as im green on Matt quite heavily.
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well done chaps, i'm going in again, worst case it's down to the last 4, we have mary or wagner onside vs rebecca. is that head to head an 8 to 1 shot, with rebecca losing confidence and public opinion towards cheryl evaporating faster than a malteser cradled in the crevice of your ballbag....
once again, mmmmmm |
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just shows what losers r on here thinking rebecca will go b4 fat mary lolllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll
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Also Rebecca not sang first yet ........... due a turn. Don't think Cher or Katie have either? Matt got he's out of the way last Saturday.
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Cher 1st of 10
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altho you won't see that
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Jack - The twitter stats have been accurate, but they've often been way out with acts that appeal mostly to under 30's.
It was the case this year with Aiden, who was actually high up on my stats the week he went, and the likes of Jedward and Lloyd last year. Without checking I think 1D have been top of my stats the last 2 weeks. No way do I actually believe they are topping the actual vote though. Just looking at the lack of over 30's tweeting in a positive manner about them and things like thumbs up on the itv site, suggest to me they're still not broadening their appeal. They still could with Cowell's prompting, but I'm far from convinced they're good enough to do so. |
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yeah lay prof but you think maddie's parents are guilty, so obviously your judgment is bang up there with the label that turned down the beatles because 'they didnt like their sound.'
they were 'in the industry' too |
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yeah and we all know the industry the mcscums and their friends are in;and no its not doctors etc
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i've got absolutely no idea what you're talking about
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Matt started with a considerable advantage over Rebecca. Until two weeks ago I felt she was making considerable inroads on that lead, but that stalled a little in Elton John week, and completely faltered this week. To have any chance she needed to continue eating into Matt's lead. She simply could not afford an off week, particularly with just 2 more shows until the final. I thought Matt was poor this week as well but all the signs are that his fans are far more forgiving than Rebecca's, and his support seems as strong as ever. With or without SC's support I'm afraid to say that Rebecca has lost the zeitgeist and I can't see her getting it back in time. Have taken her big red.
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bunny
Surely Matt did ok though didn't he with a bad song. Rebecca was really bad. You can't compare them on the night surely. One not bad at all (quite good I thought but not his usual standard) and rebecca very poor? |
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i think going first / running order becomes slightly less important this week, with two songs to sing.
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