Order Watch

thats only apparently 'bleedin obvious' if you cherry pick ... other bottom 2 or 3 contestants have been:-

Diva Fever(7th), TreyC(7th), Katie(9th), Katie(10th), Nicolo(12th) and Belle Amie(12th)

My guess (and it's only a guess) would be that Storm, John and Belle all finished last in the public vote, although we only know that for sure about BA.

For the others it has either come down to song choice - or in the case of Katie, pure dislike...

Storm obviously finished bottom of the PV.

That's right, of course he did...

The point I was trying to make was that of those eliminated so far, four appeared in the first three.  Only Nicolo and Diva Fever did not - and DF were not bottom of the public vote.

ttt - great thread

My watch still hasn't arrived [>o]

1. Cher
2. Mary
***
3. Katie
4. Aiden
***
5. Paije
6. Rebecca
***
7. Wagner
8. Matt
***
9. TreyC
***
10. OD

thanks squares

2nd week in a row TreyC has been in a section by herself. Not sure if this is significant.

Making a cup of tea takes a while

All on one post with top 3 or 2 in BOLD
Show 1
FYD, Matt * John, Rebecca * Storm, Belle Amie * Cher * Diva Fever, Paije * Katie, Mary, Nicolo * One D., Wagner * Aiden, Treyc
Show 2
Storm * Treyc * Paije, One Dir * Cher, John * Diva Fever * Rebecca, Aiden * Wagner, Katie * Belle Amie, Mary * Matt
Show 3
Paije * John, Rebecca * Cher * Matt, One D * Treyc, Mary * Aiden * Belle Amie, Wagner* Katie
Show 4
Mary, Aiden * Belle Amie, Rebecca * Treyc * Matt, Wagner * Paije, Katie * One Direction, Cher
Show 5
Cher, Mary * Katie, Aiden * Paije, Rebecca * Wagner, Matt * Treyc * One D

bottom 2 or 3 i meant obv.

Other than first or last which is tied in with introductions/ recaps etc. those who had stand alone slots were:-

Cher, Treyc, Diva Fever, Cher, Aiden, Treyc, Treyc.

If it helps getting votes to have your own in-between ads slot, maybe they're trying to nurse Cher, Aiden and Treyc through to the last 8 to get them tied to being on the tour

Total red herring imho

They couldn't give a monkeys about Tracy

Rebecca has only been past halfway once and that was only just past halfway.
She's clearly being held up for a late run.
Let's just hope it's Dancing Brave in the Arc and not in the Derby

TraySee is a non entity, shouldn't even be in the Finals.

Five Leaves: Rebecca ... clearly being held up for a late run.

Couldn't agree more mate.

Let's just hope Cowell manages it and doesn't do a Greville Starkey and let Matt get an unassailable lead.

FLL and OTHH - very apt analogies!

Got to be a two horse race between these two now - but there's a chance that Matt by setting a blazing pace will do a Mister Baileys...  Rebecca is still sitting with a double handful in behind.  She is clearly being groomed in the same way that Joe, Alex and even Leona were understated and undersold in the first few weeks.

I think they would be happy with either of these two winning - as would I [;)]

Safe Order Called

Aiden
Rebecca
Matt
OD
Paije
Cher
Wagner
Mary

Paije
----
Aiden
Mary
----
Katie
Matt
----
Cher
Wagner
----
OD
----
Rebecca

thanks squares

All on one post with top 3 or 2 in BOLD
Show 1
FYD, Matt * John, Rebecca * Storm, Belle Amie * Cher * Diva Fever, Paije * Katie, Mary, Nicolo * One D., Wagner * Aiden, Treyc
Show 2
Storm * Treyc * Paije, One Dir * Cher, John * Diva Fever * Rebecca, Aiden * Wagner, Katie * Belle Amie, Mary * Matt
Show 3
Paije * John, Rebecca * Cher * Matt, One D * Treyc, Mary * Aiden * Belle Amie, Wagner* Katie
Show 4
Mary, Aiden * Belle Amie, Rebecca * Treyc * Matt, Wagner * Paije, Katie * One Direction, Cher
Show 5
Cher, Mary * Katie, Aiden * Paije, Rebecca * Wagner, Matt * Treyc * One D
Show 6
Paije * Aiden, Mary * Katie, Matt * Cher, Wagner * One D * Rebecca


...the curse of Mary returns

Using only the remaining 8 acts relative performing positions with points awarded 8 (last) down to 1 (first):-

Wagner 36
One Direction 36
Katie 31
Matt 27
Mary 24
Rebecca 23
Cher 23
Paije 16

Thanks Grendel, very interesting.

Illuminates Cowell's attempts to keep Wager and 1D, and to a lesser extent Katie, in the competition.

It also shows that Paije has been getting public support despite being totally sh@t on by Cowell.

Also shows PAIJE has dodged two bullets by opening the show on two occassions.

Frankly Paige's achievement in still being in this competition given the slots, songs and wardrobe he has been given is almost as great as whoever goes on to win this.

It seems an act after you before the ads is a curse .. esp. since week 3

Yes Paije done very well to get this far considering his slots.  Due a 'pimp' slot it can only help his cause.  Can't see him making the final 4 or 5 though.

Sorry, did not see this thread before.

You can't assume that anyone is due anything though.

Someone like Lloyd from last year, for example, made it all the way to the final 5 with these positions:

8th of 12, 7th/11, 2nd/10, 4th/9, 3rd/8, 2nd/7, 1st/6, 2nd and 6th at 2-song stage.

There are some contestants who make it a fair way but never close the show.

It's only forums like this that pay much attention or significance to running orders and their influence, most of Joe Public are oblivious to the fact they are subliminally manipulated.

There will be relentless ramping of their chosen one this year in the coming weeks, my guess judging from Simon's comment after Matts performance of 'First Time Ever I Saw Your Face' about it being the Matt and Rebecca show is that they will try and get Rebecca to win, I don't think she is popular enough to win though.

grendel

When you say after Matts performance of 'First Time Ever I Saw Your Face' about it being the Matt and Rebecca show is that they will try and get Rebecca to win, why do you pick her and not Matt when he's mentioned them both?  Noy saying you're wrong but if he mentions them both how do you conclude it's her rather than him?

Grendel: 18 Nov 10 12:24  It seems an act after you before the ads is a curse .. esp. since week 3

Interesting spot, Grendel. A quick look at last year shows that of the 20 times there were two acts between a break it was 14-6 in favour of the act singing second!

LOU

If Matt had just sang and Simon was commenting on his performance, the fact he even mentioned Rebecca when his comments should have just been about Matt says a lot imo.  Its almost a bit disrepectful.

onthehushhush

I don't get your stats, surely there were more than 20 times that two acts sang between ads, what does the 14-6 signify?
With an act after you before ads/ end of show, this year has been 29 so far with 9 of them being in bottom 2 or 3.

According to my stats from last year, there WERE only 20 times acts sang together between ads (this from the first seven shows, when everyone only sang once). For instance in shows 6 & 7 there was only one time per show that two acts appeared together - the rest of the time it was one-act-per-segment.

Of the 20 'clashes', 14 times the act singing second in the segment out-scored the act singing first, with only six occasions the other way around, more than I would expect if order had no say in matters.

In short: it looks like you're on to something!

ah i see, i think i was thrown by the fact there were 12 finalists last year as oppose to 16 this.  I take it you have all the shows voting figures then from last year

by the way... mums the word, we'll clean up [;)]

The vote figures are on the ITV website!

And those clashes in full (with act in CAPS winning):

1: Kandy v OLLY, Rikki v STACEY, Frank v JAMIE, Lloyd v LUCIE, Jed v JOE
2: OLLY v Frank, Rachel v JOE, LLOYD v Jed, Rikki v JAMIE
3: LLOYD v Frank, JAMIE v Stacey, JOE v Lucie
4: JOE v Lucie, Lloyd v STACEY, Rachel v JEDWARD
5: OLLY v Lloyd, Lucie v DANYL, Jed v JOE
6: Olly v JOE
7: Jed v DANYL

looking again it's actually 13-7, not 14-6. I must have miscounted.

hmm ... you'd have to factor in the favoured act going 2nd in a segment anyway

looks like more stand alone segments from now on judged on last year... more ads revenue !!

1. Matt
========
2. Cher
3. OD
========
4. Rebecca
5. Mary
========
6. Paije
7. Wagner
========
8. Katie

thanks for putting it up squares

could be interesting tonight, Rebecca got double curse of Mary slot and an act after her before ads

A girl has closed the show 5 out of the 7 weeks, yet only opened the show on one week.

Cher surely more under threat from that theory grendel?

This was the traditional week to throw us off the scent that the RO is unbelievable biased

I would agree with that GB, esp if Cher is competing with OD for the "young" vote.

This week's show proves for once and for all that the producers are more than aware of the elimination betting...  Not for the first time this series either.

Favourite to leave on last, 2nd fav was penultimate act, 3rd fav three from the end, 4th fav, four from the end, with the market leaders to win the show all in the first half this week.  They clearly want a shake up as this is bound to create a shock result in the bottom two.

It's Cher that looks to be isolated by this - available at 67 before the show and now just 11.4.  Sandwiched between Matt and One Direction, with the early slot / first of two to perform before an ad all contributing to her vulnerability.  Not to mention a performance that will not appeal to her core fan base (although one of her best in my view).

The sing off beckons!

two more acts having an act after them before the ads in bottom 2

grendel

just my imagination

but i'm convinced Cowell will keep One D close to Matt every week now

maybe something to watch.

All on one post with top 3 or 2 in BOLD
Show 1
FYD, Matt * John, Rebecca * Storm, Belle Amie * Cher * Diva Fever, Paije * Katie, Mary, Nicolo * One D., Wagner * Aiden, Treyc
Show 2
Storm * Treyc * Paije, One Dir * Cher, John * Diva Fever * Rebecca, Aiden * Wagner, Katie * Belle Amie, Mary * Matt
Show 3
Paije * John, Rebecca * Cher * Matt, One D * Treyc, Mary * Aiden * Belle Amie, Wagner* Katie
Show 4
Mary, Aiden * Belle Amie, Rebecca * Treyc * Matt, Wagner * Paije, Katie * One Direction, Cher
Show 5
Cher, Mary * Katie, Aiden * Paije, Rebecca * Wagner, Matt * Treyc * One D
Show 6
Paije * Aiden, Mary * Katie, Matt * Cher, Wagner * One D * Rebecca
Show 7
Matt * Cher, One D. * Rebecca, Mary * Paije, Wagner * Katie

Just done some probability maths on the above and last years with info provided by onthehushhush....

Using how many contestants were in each round and how many had acts after them before an ad break, with all things being equal by chance there should have been 4.2 acts in the bottom two last year and there were 7. This year there should have been 6.37 and there have been 11.
An impact value of 1.67 (2009) and 1.73 (2010)

grendel

i don't know how you do it , all too advanced for me but good stuff.  Very interesting.

ttt

Curse of Mary really clear when you look at it all together:

6/7 weeks adjacent to a B2/B3
4/7 weeks in the same show section as a B2/B3
2/7 weeks immediately between B2 and B3

In two of the last 3 weeks one of the bottom two has sung directly after Matt and all 3 of the last weeks the person who has sung after Mary has been in the bottom two.

This represents a coefficient, dirigible, biometric, venn diagram parabola nexus of 0.002731.

Can someone check my maths?

Or to keep it simple if you backed the first 2 on to be in the bottom 2 and layed the one singing last how much would you have won?

people always seem to be commenting on other threads, so:

Singing Positions of Remaining Contestants

Mary 11/16 13/14 8/12 1/11 2/10 3/9 5/8
(so hasn't gone last, reasonable mix)

Wagner 14/16 10/14 11/12 7/11 7/10 7/9 7/8
(not first nor last, no early slots, lot of 7ths)

Katie 10/16 11/14 12/12 9/11 3/10 4/9 8/8
(not first, last twice)

Cher 7/16 5/14 4/12 11/11 1/10 6/9 2/8
(reasonable mix)

Rebecca 4/16 8/14 3/12 4/11 6/10 9/9 4/8
(not first, few 4ths)

Matt 2/16 14/14 5/12 6/11 8/10 5/9 1/8
(reasonable mix)

OD 13/16 4/14 6/12 10/11 10/10 8/9 3/8
(not first, fairly reasonable mix)

good stuff squares, thanks mate

mary obviously due a last slot. i still cant help thinking, with her support base, that she is very tradeable at 46s

nick

Yes i agree.  See your point.

A bit about RO in here, although I wouldn't say Wagner has been getting poor slots.

Girls have, however, closed the show on 5 from 7 weeks and opened it only once.


X Factor judges Louis Walsh and Dannii Minogue have reportedly complained over the "preferential treatment" being given to Cheryl Cole's acts.

The pair are said to be annoyed by the alleged favouritism shown to Cher Lloyd, Katie Waissel and Rebecca Ferguson, and have told Simon Cowell that things need to change.

According to the Daily Star, Walsh and Minogue were further angered when Cole arrived at rehearsals in a Rolls-Royce - while they use so-called 'ordinary cars'.

Other complaints have apparently included that Cole receives the best styling and that her acts receive the best performance slots in the live show's running order.

"It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see Cheryl's acts are getting the best slots," an insider told the paper. "Over the last couple of weeks both Dannii and Louis have been concerned about where their most vulnerable acts - Paije [Richardson], Wagner [Carrilho] and Mary [Byrne] - sit in the Saturday lineup.

"They've been in what everyone calls the 'graveyard' slots at the start of the show where viewers are most likely to forget their performances. Louis raised his concerns with Simon but was told to 'lump it'."

However, an X Factor spokeswoman said: "The order in which acts perform varies each week. None of the finalists are shown preferential treatment, with each of them getting their chance to shine on the stage."

an update of the relative order of singing of remaining 7 acts: average is 28

Wagner  37
One D   33
Katie   33
Mary    25
Matt    24
Rebecca 23
Cher    21

hardly favouring cheryl's acts

However, an X Factor spokeswoman said: "The order in which acts perform varies each week. None of the finalists are shown preferential treatment, with each of them getting their chance to shine on the stage."

Take note of act on after first ad break ... been in bottom 2 for last 5 weeks

surely coincidence grendel???

actually whoever does will be on again so may not count against them unless they get another first on after ads slot

maybe coincidence nick .. who knows but last year and this year acts on with another act after them before an ad break are statistically more liable to be in bottom 2

1st half

Wagner
-------
OD
Mary
-------
Cher
Rebecca
-------
Matt
Katie


might mix up ad breaks in 2nd half?

Wagner
-------
OD
Mary
-------
Cher
Rebecca
-------
Matt
Katie
-------
Wagner
OD
-------
Mary
-------
Rebecca
Katie
-------
Matt
Cher

All on one post with bottom 3 or 2 in BOLD
Show 1
FYD, Matt * John, Rebecca * Storm, Belle Amie * Cher * Diva Fever, Paije * Katie, Mary, Nicolo * One D., Wagner * Aiden, Treyc
Show 2
Storm * Treyc * Paije, One Dir * Cher, John * Diva Fever * Rebecca, Aiden * Wagner, Katie * Belle Amie, Mary * Matt
Show 3
Paije * John, Rebecca * Cher * Matt, One D * Treyc, Mary * Aiden * Belle Amie, Wagner* Katie
Show 4
Mary, Aiden * Belle Amie, Rebecca * Treyc * Matt, Wagner * Paije, Katie * One Direction, Cher
Show 5
Cher, Mary * Katie, Aiden * Paije, Rebecca * Wagner, Matt * Treyc * One D
Show 6
Paije * Aiden, Mary * Katie, Matt * Cher, Wagner * One D * Rebecca
Show 7
Matt * Cher, One D. * Rebecca, Mary * Paije, Wagner * Katie
Show 8
Wagner * One D, Mary * Cher, Rebecca * Matt, Katie * Wagner, One D., Mary * Rebecca, Katie * Matt, Cher

Double curse of Mary for One D. plus 2 performances with a following act before an ad break.... I can see them being in the bottom 3

grendel

I think bar Matt it could be anybody.  Very open make a claim for all of them.

grendel, FWIW only first performance had an act after then before the ad break.

no both squares, there was no ad break between One D and Mary's second performances, was in a 3 act section .... i knew i wasn't going mad as I just rechecked on my Sky+

oh really grendel, so it went

ads
8 Wagner
9 OD
10 Mary
ads

Cheers, I thought Mary had that as a single slot.

1st songs

1. Rebecca
ads
2. Mary
3. Matt
ads
4. Cher
5. OD

2nd half

6. Matt
7. Mary
ads
8. Cher
9. rebecca
ads
10. OD

so the order was mixed up for the 2nd songs again.

Mary only remaining act to have never closed the show.  Started off with lateish slots but has been on earlies since.

Cher has opened the show once and closed it twice.

Rebecca has opened it once (last night) and closed it once. 

Matt also in 1st once and last once (some time ago).

OD only remaining act to have never opened the show and have closed it twice, including last night.

The order was very interesting last night.

Assuming they felt they had to let Rebecca perform nearer the end of the show than Cher this week to avoid any accusations of bias, they could hardly have done more to negate the impact of a late slot for her.
i.e. First song sung as far away from the vote opening as possible, second song squeezed into the final segment between Cher and 1D (three songs after the adverts?)

Rebecca did more than enough to compensate for the positioning but it certainly seems as if the intention was to neutralise the adavantage of a obligatory late slot for her as much as possible?

Order and Voting positions:-

Show 1

FYD 14, Matt 2
*
John 9, Rebecca 6
*
Storm 13, Belle Amie 11
*
Cher 3
*
Diva F 10, Paije 7
*
Katie 15, Mary 1, Nicolo 16
*
One D 4, Wagner 12
*
Aiden 5, Treyc 8

Show 2

Storm 14, Treyc 10
*
Paije 9, One D 3
*
Cher 6, John 7
*
Diva F 12
*
Rebecca 5, Aiden 4
*
Wagner 11, Katie 8
*
Belle Amie 13, Mary 2
*
Matt 1

Show 3

Paije 7
*
John 11, Rebecca 5
*
Cher 4
*
Matt 1, One D 3
*
Treyc 12, Mary 2
*
Aiden 6
*
Belle Amie 10, Wagner 9
*
Katie 8

Show 4

Mary 3, Aiden 6
*
Belle Amie 11, Rebecca 5
*
TreyC 9
*
Matt 1, Wagner 8
*
Paije 7, Katie 10
*
One D 4, Cher 2

Show 5

Cher 5, Mary 4
*
Katie 10, Aiden 6
*
Paije 7, Rebecca 2
*
Wagner 8, Matt 1
*
Treyc 9
*
One D 3

Show 6

Paije 6
*
Aiden 9, Mary 4
*
Katie 8, Matt 1
*
Cher 5, Wagner 7
*
One D 3
*
Rebecca 2

Show 7

Matt 1
*
Cher 8, One D 4
*
Rebecca 3, Mary 5
*
Paije 7, Wagner 6
*
Katie 2

Cheers grendel, nice work.

Interesting that over 11 shows (with last night being the 11th)

P1mp slots

Girls 8/11
Groups 2/11
Boys 1/11
Olds 0/11

Coffin slots

Boys 5/11
Olds 3/11
Girls 2/11
Groups 1/11

so it can never be assumed that anyone is due anything for the sake of fairness.

That's really interesting.  The manipulation this year has plumbed new depths and been quite cynical at times.  But providing you can factor this in to your punting it's an invaluable weapon to have in your armoury, not only for the elimination betting, but it really does give a good steer on who they want out / keep in - and more importantly, who they desperately need to help to remain in the competition...

Will be fascinating to overlay these with the actual voting percentages once known...

I was saying that to a random mum on the school run this morning Dizzy

Loaded question but she agreed wholeheartedly that Cowell manipulation to get the final he wanted was way over the top this year

Finally the general public have sussed him a little?  His popularity is nowhere near what it was a couple or three years ago. Lucie did for him

The % are out btw, I think

yep

http://xfactor.tellymix.co.uk/results

They had to get Cher into the final 4.  Mary would have looked ridiculous with Will I Am

Actually, would love to have seen Mary and Christina Ag.  When CA turned up trying to steal the show, Mary would have just boomed over her and if she tried any more diva tactics Mary could have elbowed her out of the way, or just stood in front of her to make her vanish.

Sounds like something they could do on TV Burp.

Mary would have got Westlife

Or Johnny Logan

Could have got Vince Clark back to do "Only You"

very 80s retro/le roux styleee

over the weekend I couldn't get Leave In Silence out of my head.

Now, for some reason, you've reminded me of How Winter Kills, aa

got some terible news ..late last night.

alan normile,lucy normile's husband/assistant trainer died of cancer.

only 38,very young family...always enjoyed the crack at the local courses up here

nothing you can really say

saw that in the RP this morning aa.  A total shocker to say the least 

squares

It's right waht you say and great stuff as ever with you.  I'd love to be able to sit Cowell down and ask him "Why is it they don't all get a turn each at going first, a turn second, the last spot" etc etc.  I wonder how he could answer it?  It's blatantly unfair from your figures so how could he defend it, what could he say?

He'd say "it's my show and I can do what the fk I like"

which is more or less what he said after the Mary/Cher debacle.

Seriously though I wonder how he could answer it?

Another thing rergarding order:  Whilst it's definately not favourable to sing first when Matt did 'Come Together' fist which i didn't think was great in a very poor 'Beatles week' he still topped the vote!

must have been that vest

Amazing.  He turned out to be bomb proof.  Not even Laryngitis could stop him...

I thought he was poor in Beatles week too; wrong song choice and graveyard slot, but obviously the juggernaut was already well on its way by then!

Lou Squares   

All's well that ends well

I don't think it is amazing at all.
The show is hugely uncompetitive at the top end, and we had an extremely votable person for this audience who was arguably the best performer and in the top 2 singers. The show is crafted to look like it is an open contest.

Tell that to Paije [;)]

Cheers grendel. Unless I'm reading it wrong suggests opening show ain't fatal (weeks 1 and 2 i think overlapped with end of SCD; certainly week 2 did)but pimp spot is a big advantage.

Cider - I agree that there were only 4 or 5 possible winners from the outset (some would argue only 2 or 3), but what I thought was amazing was that Matt could still top the vote with a sizeable percentage in a week when he was on first with a poor song choice and performed badly (compared to other standout performances).

As GB says, the opening slot obviously isn't fatal if you have a strong enough contestant to carry it.  As soon as one of the weaker singers gets the graveyard shift, that's the time to plunge on.  But the voting patterns still prove that there's absolutely no point in punting on the elimination market until you know the running order.

It's the only thing that kept Wagner and Katie in so long (that and dodgy sing off / deadlock decisions!)

The order of the first show is irrelevant as there was no voting but show 2 was:-

Nu Vibe * Sammi * Craig, Janet * Frankie, Jonny * Marcus, Rhythmix * Misha * The Risk, Sophie * Kitty

Frankie continues the trend of an act having an act after them before ad break being in the bottom 2, being blooody awful helped too of course.