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X Factor 2010

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grendel
12 Oct 10 16:49
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Date Joined: 02 Jul 04
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Episode 1

1. FYD
2. Matt
3. John
4. Rebecca

5. Storm
6. Belle Amie
7. Cher
8. Diva Fever

9. Paije
10.Katie
11.Mary
12.Nicolo

13.One Direction
14.Wagner
15.Aiden
16.Treyc

Bottom 3:-

Nicolo
FYD
Katie

I wonder if Nicolo and Katie suffered from being either side of obvious showstopper Mary and her performance overshadowing theirs hugely, FYD obviously suffered from being on first ... we may see any other performances either side of showstoppers suffering as the series goes on

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By:
LOU MACARIS TARTAN B
When: 12 Oct 10 16:51
grendel

That's a fair point.  Never really thought of that.  Mary comes out with the best of the night and you tend to forget the one either side.  To be fair though won't you tend to forget a lot of them when she comes out and does that though but I see your point.
By:
grendel
When: 12 Oct 10 17:19
what is also interesting is the spread of ad breaks, the above performances were in this order with * signifying an ad break

* 1 2 * 3 4 * 5 6 * 7 * 8 9 * 10 11 12 * 13 14 * 15 16*
By:
onthehushhush
When: 12 Oct 10 17:24
Thanks Grendel, useful thread
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 12 Oct 10 17:26
If I never hear 'neon rainbow' again, it'll be far too soon
By:
onthehushhush
When: 17 Oct 10 00:34
Didn't see the show but Wiki has the order as:

1. Storm
2. Treyc
3. Paije
4. One Direction

5. Cher
6. John
7. Diva
8. Rebecca

9. Aiden
10 Wagner
11 Katie
12 Belle

13 Mary
14 Matt
By:
Dizzy42
When: 17 Oct 10 08:25
Two second half spots for Mary and Wagner suggest the producers want them both in for a while yet.  Likewise Aiden.
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 17 Oct 10 08:26
Hi Grendel, I promise I'll order a watch when my winnings are in

hth
By:
Dizzy42
When: 17 Oct 10 12:49
The bookies reacted to Storm going on first immediately - slashing from 10s into 7s and 6s (which only last until the end of the song when he was generally 3s and 4s).

Do you think this is genuinely due to weight of money, or more realistically the odds compilers / handful of shrewdies factoring in the draw?!
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 17 Oct 10 12:52
Bit of both
By:
grendel
When: 17 Oct 10 15:44
Wiki has the order right hush, ad breaks were *

1 * 2 * 3 4 * 5 6 * 7 * 8 9 * 10 11 * 12 13 * 14

Storm on first ... and strictly was still on at the time so should be bottom
By:
Benjy
When: 17 Oct 10 22:36
Katie in trouble next week with a probable early slot and Mary cursing those around her are my two conclusions from this. Silly
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 17 Oct 10 22:43
1d due a pimp slot, with John imo
By:
ghatroonh
When: 18 Oct 10 01:56
Is there a strictly overlap next week?

Either boys or girls will open the show.

Rebecca or Cher most likely of the girls IMO (they wouldn't risk Katie unless they feel it is time to call it a day)

Although they (particularly Cher) should be able to handle the clash at this stage.
By:
Benjy
When: 18 Oct 10 11:58
Yes there is a clash for the first act only.

A girl will surely open the show being the only category with all 4 left and no girl going first so far.

Cher the only one who I would be sure can avoid B3 after going first. Can't imagine her fans are the Strictly type and as she is slightly unique (in a crap way) going first won't really help people forget her.

Rebecca going first would be an interesting one for elimination at a price. Quite a few of us seem to acknowledge her vocal ability but see her as a perfect shock elimination candidate.

It should really be Katie going first though, she's had two second half slots so far, Treyc and Rebecca have already been first on from their category and Cher has been first half in both shows.

Considering a decent bet on Katie being the next out. Going to get a lot of publicity this week though I think which although mostly being negative is likely still a help.
By:
onthehushhush
When: 23 Oct 10 19:38
ttt
By:
Benjy
When: 24 Oct 10 21:44
I've realised this is actually of very little use generally as there is no fairness at all in the running order and they just pick the acts in an order according to who they want to keep around and who they don't.

Compare John (who clearly wasn't what they are looking for and had no real use to the show) and Katie (who is their main publicity act atm) for example;

John went 3rd of 16, 6th of 14 and 2nd of 12.
Katie went 10th of 16, 11th of 14 and 12th of 12.

There is other examples of this as well but I can't believe the contestants don't realise this. I suppose they can't really say much anyway but think the show could make a little more effort to be a fair/even singing competetion rather than the blatant manipulated money making scheme we all know it is.

-----

Next week however a girl will surely go first, the only cattegory yet to do so. Which one is anyones guess though.
By:
onthehushhush
When: 24 Oct 10 21:47
I've realised this is actually of very little use generally as there is no fairness at all in the running order
Don't use it to try and predict what the running order will be, use it to predict what the running order will do
By:
Benjy
When: 24 Oct 10 21:54
What happened this week then?
By:
onthehushhush
When: 24 Oct 10 22:01
Didn't realise it hadn't been posted.
1 Paije
*
2 John
3 Rebecca
*
4 Cher
*
5 Matt
6 Wand
*
7 Treyc
8 Mary
*
9 Aids
*
10 Belle Amie
11 Wanger
*
12 Katie
By:
George Bailey
When: 24 Oct 10 22:02
Sent john home and kept katie in. You said yourself katie in trouble if an early slot.  Look and learn glasshopper.
By:
onthehushhush
When: 24 Oct 10 22:03
From that I would take it that Paije and John would be in trouble, and as posted elsewhere, so would Trecy as she's with Mary. I would instantly see Wagner and Katie as safe, probably Belle Amie too.
By:
George Bailey
When: 24 Oct 10 22:06
mary curse continues.  coincidence surely?
By:
Benjy
When: 24 Oct 10 22:09
Mary hurting the person before her (although I'm not fully sure this fits with the theory of her getting boring).

and

Possibly it's favourable to appear just before an ad' break rather than another performer.

Are the only two potential angles I can see.
By:
Dizzy42
When: 24 Oct 10 22:21
The Paije / John back to back opener had to hurt one of them - and John was by far the weaker of the two.

Said last night that the producers had put them on as sacrificial lambs, and poor John was sent to the slaughter!

Bad song, bad set, bad suit - and sadly for him, second on.  The nail was already in his coffin before the rest of us could press the 'back' button!
By:
onthehushhush
When: 24 Oct 10 22:25
I would be very interested to see the votes for this week. I would say Rebecca harmed John the same way Mary harmed Treyc. And it's interesting they put Belle Amie alongside Wagner, who are unlikely to damage each other's support.
By:
Hove_Park_Upper_School
When: 25 Oct 10 06:14
Has anyone kept a close eye on the "in no particular order" of the people saved each week? [;)]

I've been following this for the past 2 series plus this series so far, and with a bit of interpretation & common sense I think there may be a pattern to the order. [:o]
By:
squares
When: 25 Oct 10 09:36
I've got 'em HPUS.  I'll stick them on here now.
By:
squares
When: 25 Oct 10 09:38
1st Show 9/10/10.

Called Safe INPO

TreyC
John A
Aiden
Diva F
Cher
Storm
Belle Amie
Matt
Wagner
Rebecca
Mary
One D
Paije

OUT - Nicolo
B2 FYD and Katie, FYD OUT
By:
squares
When: 25 Oct 10 09:40
2nd Show 16/10/10

Katie
John
Matt
Rebecca
One D
Mary
Cher
Paije
TreyC
Wagner
Aiden

OUT - Storm
B2 Diva F and Belle Amie, Diva F OUT
By:
squares
When: 25 Oct 10 09:42
3rd Show 23/10/10

Cher
Aiden
Wagner
Katie
One D
Rebecca
Belle Amie
Matt
Mary
Paije

B2 John and TreyC, John OUT


I've always kept all this sort of stuff, although tbf haven't found it gives away that much.
By:
Benjy
When: 25 Oct 10 09:47
You going to tell us what it is? Just looked at the first 3 shows this series amd can't see anything, pretty small sample though.
By:
grendel
When: 25 Oct 10 09:58
Thanks for onthehushhush for keeping track, I was gonna ffwd thru sky+ to get the order and ad breaks but it had been erased, next I was gonna do it on itvplayer when I had time.

Interesting to see the curse of Mary still in evidence, I wonder if this sort of thing had happened in previous series, though clashing with Strictly was more prevalent in recent years.

I don't think there's much to be gleaned from 'in no particular order' other then its done to leave the mentors with as equal number of acts left as possible to the end, betting is suspended before this point anyway.
By:
grendel
When: 25 Oct 10 10:16
Just thought I'd put all 3 shows so far on one post

Show 1
FYD, Matt * John, Rebecca * Storm, Belle Amie * Cher * Diva Fever, Paije * Katie, Mary, Nicolo * One D., Wagner * Aiden, Treyc
Show 2
Storm * Treyc * Paije, One Dir * Cher, John * Diva Fever * Rebecca, Aiden * Wagner, Katie * Belle Amie, Mary * Matt
Show 3
Paije * John, Rebecca * Cher * Matt, One D * Treyc, Mary * Aiden * Belle Amie, Wagner* Katie
By:
Shrew D
When: 25 Oct 10 12:17
I thought I'd do an average 'slot time' for the singers that are left in.


Wagner 14, 10, 11 = average 11.7
Katie 10, 11, 12 = 11
Aiden 15, 9, 9 = 11
Mary 11, 13, 8 = 10.7
Belle Amie 6, 12, 10 = 9.3
Treyc 16, 2, 7 = 8.3
One D 13, 4, 6 = 7.7
Matt 2, 14, 5 = 7
Cher 7, 5, 4 = 5.3
Rebecca 4, 8, 3 = 5
Paije 9, 3, 1 = 4.3

It may be useful to some but may also be misleading. [:)]
By:
LOU MACARIS TARTAN B
When: 25 Oct 10 12:21
Shrew D

Good point though.  In theory the likes of Paije and Rebeccca are due a later slot than say a Katie or Wagner.
By:
jack12321
When: 25 Oct 10 12:26
Alas there's nothing fair about the way they do it. Danyl for example was in the latter half of the show 7 times out of 9, and last on 3 times.

Interesting regardless, the data can be taken in a few different ways
By:
Benjy
When: 25 Oct 10 12:28
I suppose it's useful to see which ones they are desperate to keep around but I used averages last week to come up with Katie singing first and she was on last. Laugh

I'm still finidng it hard to believe she won't be first next week as well Cry
By:
LOU MACARIS TARTAN B
When: 25 Oct 10 12:35
benjy

Yes Cheryl has all four acts left so they have to get through them and Katie had very favourable draws so far.  I think she could well open the show and I think she could be in trouble to go this week.  Not a very good singer for me, the weakest of Cheryl's girls.
By:
Imperialista
When: 25 Oct 10 12:52
I think they want katie to stay, after all they bought out her contract in the US etc.

I reckon treyc will open, she's the least favoured of the 4 girls by cheryl in my opinion
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