X Factor 2010
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Thought I'd share with you my rather complicated calculations to determine popularity, and keep it updated through the show. Worked extremely well last year (including correctly predicting Danyl and Miss Frank bottom two in week 3), so hopefully it can throw up some useful clues again. Numbers still settling down with it being week 1, but look pretty fair already to me.
Week 1:
Popularity rating (gives a good indication of how popular the act is currently, on a medium term basis):
Mary 1057
1 Direction 815
Aiden 684
Matt 667
Cher 446
Rebecca 262
Belle Amie 140
Nicolo 135
FYD 132
Diva Fever 129
Wagner 101
Paije 98
TreyC 91
Storm 85
John 85
Katie 72
Trend rating (short term indicator, should be positive after a well received performance and negative if the public was disappointed. Very useful for spotting potential "shock" bottom two appearances where their popularity may still be high):
Aiden 58
1 Direction 37
Mary 32
Nicolo 6
Matt -3
John -10
Cher -13
FYD -13
Storm -22
Belle Amie -22
Rebecca -24
Katie -26
Don't take as gospel, but hope these numbers are somewhat thought provoking
Week 1:
Popularity rating (gives a good indication of how popular the act is currently, on a medium term basis):
Mary 1057
1 Direction 815
Aiden 684
Matt 667
Cher 446
Rebecca 262
Belle Amie 140
Nicolo 135
FYD 132
Diva Fever 129
Wagner 101
Paije 98
TreyC 91
Storm 85
John 85
Katie 72
Trend rating (short term indicator, should be positive after a well received performance and negative if the public was disappointed. Very useful for spotting potential "shock" bottom two appearances where their popularity may still be high):
Aiden 58
1 Direction 37
Mary 32
Nicolo 6
Matt -3
John -10
Cher -13
FYD -13
Storm -22
Belle Amie -22
Rebecca -24
Katie -26
Don't take as gospel, but hope these numbers are somewhat thought provoking
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Replies: 176
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Nice one Jack. Are you sure Rebecca trended so badly?
Twitter has it's limitations: the best XF trenders appeared to me to be Aiden, Wagner and Gamu. However it is useful and it's really good that you put up that info that we can discuss. Some groups and the comedy acts appeared to trend better than their odds imply (I think I'll go with the odds). |
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Don't quite understand it but I'm sure it's all good stuff. Matt and Aiden both up there so I think I'm ok?
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Thought I'd share with you my rather complicated calculations to determine popularity
That would be interesting (we've just got your results so far). |
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n1 Jack.
What are you using to get the ratings? Twitter, FB, Polls? |
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Could be a worse start, could be better. Was on Katie at 8/1 to be evicted tonight using these numbers and feel a tad hard done by, was also red on Belle Amie and Wagner and as suggested by the numbers their support was better than might've been expected. Tad surprised Nicolo was that low in the vote, though.
Numbers will have settled down for next week, so fingers crossed for a more spot on prediction. It's a specific way of looking at FB numbers fll most accurate indicator I've found, although tends to slightly overestimate the voting power of the teeny vote (this year, 1 Direction) |
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Are you sure Rebecca trended so badly?
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Yes Henry, it doesn't mean her performance was poor, just that based on what people were expecting she was disappointing. Which TBH I think is quite fair (and she drifted in the betting accordingly)
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I was just surprised Jack because she got loads of positive tweets but I didn't compare them all like you did.
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I've tried twitter stats in previous years/contests and sometimes they throw up the odd gem but generally are the way to the workhouse imo.
I thought belle amie trended but not according to these stats..which I trust by the way. |
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Not using twitter for the trending George
the trending is done using the percentage rate of increase in support after the act has performed compared to before they performed, and then judged against the other contestants' rate of increase to indicate who's performances stood out. Should be more accurate than simply who's most talked about.Nice to see you trust the stats though hopefully a useful addition to your personal opinions |
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Ah I see. Still don't understand why b amie trended.
Surprised Mary was so popular before (?) singing given demographich profile of most twitterers. Nicolo a difficult one to spot as he was enough marmite to cause people to twitter but not enough marmite to be saved. I take it you discount same twitterers repeating..then you have the multiple accounts...anyway look forward to your future ones. |
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Initial indicators after tonight show a major positive trend towards Wagner (sooner than I expected). Will be looking to bet on him to avoid the bottom 2/3 next week. Surprisingly little positive reaction to Katie so far though, considering her performance tonight. Trending fairly flat. Will post up some numbers during the week but initially speculate Treyc and Storm to be good value bottom 3 bets for next week
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Katie tweets appear to be mainly negative
 Aiden, Wagner both still trending strongest, now followed by binned acts. I also find that Treyc (and Paije) has been a slow burner and is trending better now than she did a couple of hours ago and is equal to the ones just below the binned acts. |
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9pm Sunday through to 6pm Wednesday:
Popularity rating: Mary 2144 1 Direction 687* Aiden 603 Matt 481 Wagner 242 Cher 236 Rebecca 171 Belle Amie 92 Katie 72 Diva Fever 68 Paije 60 Storm 51 Treyc 48 John 46 Trend rating: Mary +67 Aiden +29 Wagner +23 Matt -2 Katie -9 Diva Fever -9 John -10 Treyc -11 Paije -11 Cher -12 Belle Amie -13 Rebecca -13 Storm -14 1 Direction -16* * May be skewed from the merging of groups According to the numbers there is a huge swing towards Mary, and the reaction from Wagner getting through has certainly sparked some momentum. Rebecca worryingly low, though would not suggest she is in trouble this week. Nearer the bottom of the list, Belle Amie are doing surprisingly well, whereas Treyc surprisingly badly (despite the positive vibe towards her on here and DS) other than that it's fairly hard to call at this stage. Would suggest the bottom 3 will be made out of Storm, Katie, Treyc, John, Paije and Diva Fever. (though doubt the latter 2 will be next out) So overall, the positions I'm taking right now are: Mary to win 9/1 Wagner to win 190/1 Treyc 3rd Elimination 25/1 Wagner 3rd Elimination LAY 4/1 With a watchful eye on John, Storm and Katie for 3rd elim. As always, don't take as gospel but hopefully some useful numbers |
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jack
Good stuff. Interesting, keep up the good work. |
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I love Rebecca's voice, but definitely this years Lucie.
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sadly have to agree with you there FLL.
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I have to disagree there Figgy.
Lucie was a very good singer but she had nothing unique, she had no show stopping ability. Rebecca on the other hand as we have seen from her original audition has the ability to make people go wow which when she has the right song she will show us. For me Rebecca had just about the worst song on Saturday and yet was gave nowhere near the worst performance. |
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Hel
I'd agree with that. Didn't quite get it with Lucie. Good but not THAT good and a good few better than her last year. Rebecca though is better IMO. I personally liked her song although don't think she performed it that well but nowhere near the worst of the night. Thought she was about middle for last week. Not bad. |
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HF - mad world is a sh!te song but people seemed to love aiden's version of that.
i find most of the songs they sing on XF are tripe. |
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I actually like Mad World but I understand what your saying.
What I meant was it was a shiite song for her that didnt play to her strengths where as mad World played right up to Aidens strengths. Mary had a perfect song for her in Its a mans world but do think she would have been as impressive with some upbeat disco song? |
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yep fair point HF, totally agree on that.
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helmuthian is right on the money in this thread imo. rebecca has a knockout voice and given the right song could really shine, perhaps more than anyone else. teardrops is a horrible song for her, and we saw her at her worst. lucie had a nice voice but nothing special, and she was welsh.
mad world was perfect for aidan - eerie, weird, spooky, otherworldly - a bit like him. imagine aidan singing teardrops and you'll see what i mean |
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personally i think mary will go further than aidan
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Mary has some large demographics behind her and I just cannot see a last 4 without her no matter how much they may try in the future to mess her about tbh.
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Mary would p1ss up belting out a disco thing. Unlike mere saplings like Rebecca
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Didn't know she had incontinence problems!
 Maybe she should try these?[;)] |
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grrrrrrrr missed off link
http://www.incontinencechoice.co.uk/ranges/tena-incontinence-products-266/?gclid=CK-CodGc0qQCFWlc4wodVSyVJg |
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Hel
Yes see what you mean about Mary with an upbeat disco number. She can no doubt belt out a good ol' slowie but can she do something else. I think with the crowd behind her and shaking her 'thing' (and there's plenty of it!) I think she'll do ok. |
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For this reason I think she is versatile.
She's a popular shouter, with a strong regional vote. Can hardly go wrong until late on when the special ramps kick in in imho |
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Hate to say it but I agree with the last post.
Hang on 'The Last post'? "BUGLER"! |
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 Are we talking again yet Lou?You know how much I like you  |
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How can you expect him to talk to you after you joined the cavalry?
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they don't like it up em sir
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Lucie was a very good singer but she had nothing unique, she had no show stopping ability.
That maybe right for a show like this, but she did a show stopping and was pushing favourite before the live shows, just like Rebecca. Like Rebecca though her voice was all about the tone and not about giving it some welly while the fireworks go off behind her. That's what Cowell likes and Rebecca isn't it anymore than Lucie was. As such I can see her going the same way without some help from Cowell and I'd be surprised if that help was forthcoming. Mary on the otherhand.... Personally I think she should be favourite. |
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That should read -
...she did a show stopping audition** |
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The show could be stoppin' for her in 6 or 7 weeks Figgy. Needs to better IMO
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"do"
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Rebecca?
Yep, goes out to Wagner in week 6  |
