X Factor 2010
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Jack's Stats
Jack's Stats
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Replies: 176
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Treyc 2-1 for b2 about, if you're interested.
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Nice one Jack - on the money again.
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Thanks Dizzy
 not the exact bottom two, but well within the error threshold. All recommended bets came good.Looking even better for Wagner after last night  The reaction to him getting through gets stronger and stronger each week |
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Anything this week Jack?
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Jack is slacking this week.
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Poor form.
 Good to see your still putting a shift in. |
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Alas the X Factor team decided to completely mess me around by merging lots of facebook groups, thus completely sending my stats haywire
figured it out now.Popularity rating: Matt 2284 1D 1279 Aiden 392 Wagner 301 Rebecca 300 Cher 149 Mary 103 Paije 94 Katie 61 Treyc 38 Momentum rating (new formula!): Matt +62 Paije +4 Rebecca -1 Aiden -2 Treyc -6 1D -8 Wagner -14 Katie -15 Cher -16 Mary -17 Absolutely huge increase in popularity for Matt, completely dominating the field at the moment based on the numbers. Big drops for Mary and Cher (who was actually losing fans on facebook quicker than she was adding them for a while last night  ). Numbers decent for Aiden, Rebecca and Paije.Bit of a drop in momentum for Wagner which is worrying, would not feel safe laying him for eviction this week. The momuntum is a big factor when it comes to who will be in the bottom two. Treyc looks doomed on the numbers, and seems decent value to go tonight. Possible Mary might squeeze into the bottom two with her over Katie, but rubbish momentum numbers for the pair of them suggests Mary will probably scrape through with the larger outstanding fanbase. Katie looks a bit short to me on these stats, and Treyc a bit long, so bets for tonight are: Treyc 6th Elim BACK Katie 6th Elim (cautious) LAY Aiden Outright BACK 28 Good luck all! |
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jack
Excellent as ever. Keep up the goood work we all like to see what you come up with and it's always good stuff. |
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Glad it's useful Lou, especially with your boy right up there!
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Sterling work, jack.
Rebecca flat is not surprising to me. She is too subtle for the xf mob. |
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jack
Yes he's doing ok so far but hope he can keep it up. His rivals are dropping away gradually though and all the stats seem to have him well clear. Long way to go still. |
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Excellent stuff Jack.
Confirmation bias cider? Rebecca is definitely gaining momentum on other measures. I had her with a quarter of Matts support on twiiter in week 2. She's now getting half of his support. She's also smashing her previous numbers of thumbs up on the itv site and is closing on Matt there too. It's very hard to lead all the way in these shows as we've seen time and time again. |
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Perhaps fll!
It's debatable who is the most competent singer between the two, and they have different styles too. Both immensely strong for this format. 50/50 depending upon taste I suppose. However, Matt is so much more of a voting proposition. He sucks the voters into the story that he is singing, look at Chezza's reaction which I believe was a genuine one, as she missed him doing this at BC. He has woman licking out of the palm of his hand. They vote. |
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lol eating out of the palm of his hand, even!
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Licking too I suspect :)
Yep, I agree in a fair run race he wins, but I think Cowell made it fairly clear last night who he'll be backing in the later stages. I'd rather have them both onside and lay the likes of 1D who wouldn't be value at double their current price. |
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Yes he was piling it on for Rebecca. If she wasn't getting middling slots I'd suggest she might have needed a nudge up to be safe, who knows perhaps she does?
He might want a genuine h2h as either would be acceptable winners and he likes them both. He complemented Matt on his attitude again ln. It just seems unlikely to me that they'll allow the two to amble to the last Sunday without trying to shake it up somehow. |
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Matt has reached the 'creative' peak arguably
Doing a boot camp song already  |
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I thought the same last night GB - could have peaked too early?
Still looks increasingly like a two horse race to me though - Matt and Rebecca all the way. They stood out a million miles above the rest in last night's show... |
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spot on again!
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oh I love these stats  |
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Yes well done Jack and as I posted earlier today:
So going for the obvious with katie and treyc with (toss up) treyc going on the basis that there is nothing in it between them poll wise so value lies with treyc. Looks like all roads lead to Rome [;)] |
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Given your figures jack, have you seen the 3-1 for Paije to beat TreyC in the match bet ?
Forgot about this, go collect |
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Bingo bango - on the money again...
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Yes thanks for that Cider
I owe you a drink. Did you get on? |
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any updates? wagner shoots back to top spot surely?
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I'll post up a full set up of numbers tomorrow when the late-slot bias has worked it's way out. Tends to be skewed towards the later acts at first, and then settles down. Probably relates to the actual voting quite well actually.
Initially looking good for Rebecca and 1D, not bad for Matt and Cher, poor for Mary, Aiden and Paije, and bad for Wagner and Katie. Wagner in a rather precarious looking 5th place  |
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how ****, said to the missus this eve that i suspected wagner might be polling around 5th spot now
he's just revving up for a momentum charge into the final i would think, it's no good peaking too soon in this show |
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**** = kweer
that (when spelt correctly) is still a normal word last time i checked, bf |
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How kweer- wasnt that a catchphrase from 'the fast show', some time back..
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You about Jack?
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Where's Jack gone, is he ok?
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If he's anything like me, he'll still be in mourning after Sunday's elimination deadlock result!
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Hi peeps! Apologies about last week, a mixture of boredom with X Factor, lack of value, being busy, and X Factor team messing with my data sources meant I didn't post. Aiden going was a bit of a shocker, but he was certainly low in the stats. Wish I'd been around more to spot that opportunity.
Initial reactions from this week (momentum in brackets) Matt 1033 (-1) Cher 882 (-12) 1 Direction 850 (-11) Katie 748 (+17) Wagner 675 (+9) Rebecca 393 (-4) Mary 218 (0) Paije 201 (+2) Very interesting week in terms of bottom 2, Paije and Mary look the bets to me at the prices. Wagner a screaming lay. Fairly neutral in the outrights, already loaded up with Rebecca lays, and can't see any other obvious value around. Haven't been placing many bets lately. Bets for this week: Mary 9th Elim BACK 15 Paije 9th Elim BACK 5.4 Wagner 9th Elim LAY 2.6 Good luck as ever peeps |
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Jack
Great stuff as ever. Well done cheers. |
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Good to have you back Jack, always a good read
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jack where u get your stats from
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We missed you last week! Interesting to see Rebecca in free-fall - and Cher rating so highly.
Paije is the one act that seemingly defies the stats though - so perhaps it's worth a little tickle on Rebecca for bottom two too? Although she would never lose a sing off, she could be a little vulnerable this week. |
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Paije back and Wagner lay come good
another good week.Cher too high on the stats (a la Lloyd last year methinks), the negative momentum was a big warning flag though. Not especially surprised. Thought I'd show you the kind of reaction there is after the results show, this is the current state of affairs: Wagner 1619 (+35) (just LOL) Cher 1032 (+1) Matt 927 (-4) 1D 740 (-13) Katie 273 (-6) Rebecca 258 (-4) Mary 141 (-2) Will obviously settle down during the week, but looking like Mary, Katie and Rebecca are the initial targets to go on Saturday |
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mary's voters don't have laptops.
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yep, nice work jack. I agree with aa though. Mary nearer the top than bottom this week.
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