Jack's Stats

Froggit I think you are right that there needs to be some attempt to factor in a) the demograpic that votes but doesn't twitter/FB and b) the fact that there can be relative positivity on these two for some acts that don't translate into actual votes/polls e.g. belle amie last week seemed to not be doing too bad on twitter.

Can you explain how you arrive at your "actual results" scores? I'm probably missing something obvious.

Wagner is interesting this week in that although we have already picked up on his popularity and laid accordingly he seems to have gone "global" in the sense that previous haters are now on board. This will give him new legs for a few more weeks I think.

Surely there has to be some kind of estimated muliplier eg john finishes bottom of twitter/FB but avoids bottom 3 = 1.5x multiplier.

I'm not a mathematician but surely trial and error on previous years would come up with some sort of rough guesstimate?

I did toy with this a couple of years ago with twitter but gave up to preserve my sanity so maybe the ultimate Holy Grail.

Oops sorry. My offsets were calculated as enough to get the contestants to above Diva Fever, who were actually eliminated.

Ah, simples.

Actually wouldn't you have to add numbers to be enough to beat belle amie who were in the bottom 3 as we don't now they got less votes than diva fever?

Hi frogg,
Yep, I did this last year.
I think it's fairly obvious the acts that will do better on the net than in the actual vote and those that will do worse.

The younger trendy ones and those that appeal to teens will be over-estimated and those who appeal to the grans under-estimated.

So those over-estimated would be 1D, Cher, Aiden and Wagner.
Under - Mary, John & maybe Paije

According to Yougov,

Treyc, John and Mary had a disproportionate level of support in the older demographics 30/35+ (Treyc more so than John surprisingly)

Also surprisingly, it seemed that most of Paije's support actually comes from those under 25(IIRC 5% for the 18-25 group and just 1% in the polls for the 40-60 and 60+ age groups)

Blimey I know the polls aren't bang up to date but shows how close it is at the bottom with any number down there.  Maybe explains switch to single eviction tonight. No other reason i can see except risk of losing someone they don't want to lose.

Confirms Storm DID have a scottish vote 2% rather than 1%

Thanks for that ghat, interesting. Any link/more numbers?

Froggitt - thanks for the suggestion, will have a look into how you could weight it to make the numbers more representative. Think it is possible to over-analyse data like this though, no matter what you do it can never be more than an indicator to help guide your overall conclusions.

Given your figures jack, have you seen the 3-1 for Paije to beat TreyC in the match bet ?

where's that Cider? I haven't seen any match bets

Hill Billies

Thanks taken some of that.

Mary 1.5 vs 2.5 Katie

Wouldn't have seen those odds a few days back

Hmmm Mary looking value there but I'm not really a fan of hers so will sit that one out!

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Life-Yo... here is the link to that yougov poll. I'm not sure how much we can read into. It's so crammed at the bottom that elimination Market is a lottery

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Life-Yo...     hope that works quite interesting thanks ghat.

Had a look thinking Katie might be worth a punt, but at those odds no chance.

Jack - can you elaborate on the calcs?  Surely using % change in number of fans does not give you a true reflection, consider the following scenario:

Act A: 100,000 fans, 101,000 after
Act B: 20,000 fans, 50,000 after

Would your index rank B higher than A just because of the growth even if their base was lower?

Gunder - Act B would be a long way ahead on both sets of numbers yes.

The baseline numbers make very little difference to the current popularity of the act, such as with Cher's huge numbers of fans.

Act A: 100,000 fans, 110,000 after
Act B: 20,000 fans, 30,000 after

They would score the same on the popularity numbers, as they are adding the same number of fans (suggesting currently equal popularity) but act B would be miles ahead on the momentum, as they have clearly are experiencing a rapid rise in popularity.

As I say, not promoting it as a perfect system - just a useful indicator I think it works pretty well

Jack, thanks for this.  However surely a large baseline of fans would indicate a bigger voting base?  In your example above surely Act A would be better placed having more potential voters.

Disagree with that to be honest, especially with the way FB works. You get a heck of a lot of "stale" support, as very few will make the effort to leave a group if their support wanders.

There is also the aspect of people joining because they've seen their friend has joined. This gives a significant in-built advantage in my stats to those with larger total numbers of fans, which should reasonably reflect the larger voting base. I would stress that current numbers of adds is a much bigger indicator of popularity than total numbers when it comes to facebook.

Foreseeing another point; the number of people in these groups at any one time is small enough that that the numbers of adds will not be significantly affected by pre-existing support (could argue that "live" supporters from earlier are unable to be included in future stats due to already being part of the group, but this should be negligible)

Thanks though, it's got me thinking in depth about the positives and drawbacks about this data

Bingo spot on

Nice work Jack. 

Cemented my own thoughts, but thanks to your stats had a good top up on John and saver on Treyc.

Keep it up!  Much appreciated...

Midweek update:

Popularity:
1 Direction 1513*
Wagner () 964**
Matt 787
Mary 376
Cher 336
Aiden 332
Rebecca 272
Belle Amie 132
Katie 128
Treyc 80
Paije 79

* It's half term
** Skewed by facebook campaign headlines

Momentum rating:

Wagner +22
1 Direction +10
Matt +3
Katie +2
Cher -3
Rebecca -3
Aiden -4
Belle Amie -4
Treyc -5
Paije -8
Mary -11

Great week last week for the numbers, would've cleaned up on the bottom 3 market too but that's life. Quite a clear bottom 4 in the numbers at the moment, would be surprised if the bottom 2/3 is not made up from Paije/Treyc/Belle Amie/Katie this week, with Paije particularly looking in trouble. Would be gobsmacked if Wagner isn't safe again.

A point on Cher, these numbers don't include her main facebook group which is adding 10-15,000 fans daily. She causing a lot of negative reaction yes, but there are a hell of a lot of lovers there too. Would be wary of underestimating her support.

Katie is another interesting one. Her numbers are better than they were, but aren't great. In danger of bottom two again depending on performance/slot. Looking at numbers, her shift in support perhaps over-estimated on the forum.

Mary, despite supposedly being right at the top of the voting, definitely has the momentum strongly against her. It's really a heck of a fall, and if it hadn't been for the suggestion she came top 2 on Saturday, I'd be looking at her for shock bottom 2 potential. It's up to you to decide if the Tesco/Ireland/Older vote people is enough to take you to victory, because unlike 2 weeks ago it looks like that's now all she's got

I'm convinced that you need the teeny-girl vote behind you to win the X Factor, and lack of this would explain why Rebecca is doing so poorly in the figures. She may have the best voice, be the most talented etc - but I struggle to see the teen girls getting behind her, and for this reason struggle to see her winning. Quite Stacey Soloman-ish in this regard.

My bets for the week:
Wagner 6th Elim LAY 5.8
Rebecca Outright LAY 6.4
Cher Ouright (cautious) BACK 13.5

Not much value around this week using the figures.

Opinions welcome

CAUTIOUS[;)]

you're bonkers [:p]


great work

One D figures very interesting - yes it is half-term, but I'd wager that a LOT of those half-termers will also actually be voters on X-factor.

Yes it's interesting Stu, I'm large green and adding on this drift. Have to be wary though as Lloyd was doing well in these figures last year. People join because they fancy them, but if they can't sing well they wont vote. Less of a worry for 1D than Lloyd, but still something to be aware of.

Exactly my perspective Jack - Lloyd was basically a fairly awful act (minus his appeal/looks) whereas these guys have reasonable ability as an overall act (some stronger and weaker singers but overall a very solid act), and their best singers are better singers than others in the individual categories.

Talent + appeal is massive IMO for this series.

Teeny girls didn't get Ray Quin anywhere near Leona or stop JLS topping Alexandra.

Teeny girls got behind both Alexandra and Leona though

Good work Jack.

Mary is going nowhere tho

I still find it amazing that she's the 4th favourite on FB, above the likes of the much trendier Aiden, Cher and Rebecca.
It shows she has broad support and why she's doing so well in the actual vote.

I wonder how many over 40, non FB users will vote for Cher? ;)
Plenty will be picking up the phone for Mary every week.

Once again, really useful stuff...

If you combine this with the running order so far, you'd have to say that Katie is going to be vulnerable as soon as she appears in the front half again.  Likewise Belle Amie.

Treyc may get the bounce this week, providing she gets a decent song that appeals to her target audience.  She survived when on second in week two, so must have some support.

Likewise Paije - he was on first last week but still finished clear of the bottom two.  I don't know who is voting for him, but perhaps he has found his niche in the granny vote - hence not trending well with the on-line stats.

Due to the influence of the running order I don't think you can bet early on the elimination market this week (other than to lay Wagner), but whoever of the bottom four in your stats appears on stage first is definitely going to be the one to plunge on in-running.  Much as John was last week!

Dizzy

Well said.

Yep spot on Dizzy when there's no obvious value around it's worth waiting to see. The running order/performances will decide who's going this week.

There is now also a Wagner website

Vote Wagner
http://www.vote-wagner.co.uk

I can't be having Katie as the longest price of the likely four to go so I'm starting with a small back of her for elimination.

Plus she really is due an early slot having being protected well so far.

I think she may well be in trouble too.  Without hearing them sing of course.

Initial reactions:

Popularity:

1 Direction 1025
Wagner 931
Cher 865
Matt 669
Mary 382
Aiden 366
Rebecca 365
Katie 135
Paije 103
Treyc 82
Belle Amie 77

Momentum rating:

Cher +19
Wagner +4
Rebecca +2
Katie +2
1 Direction +1
Matt 0
Aiden -2
Paije -5
Treyc -6
Belle Amie -8
Mary -9

For eviction tonight, looks like laying Wagner and Aiden is the way forward. Wagner's popularity seems to be steaming ahead, and Aiden has held up surprisingly well in the numbers - he wont be going anywhere imo. Belle Amie/Treyc/Paije/Katie's odds seem in about the right ratios compared to the numbers, therefore don't see any other obvious value for tonight.

Higher up the list, a very disappointing reaction in the numbers to Rebecca's performance - possible she got overshadowed by the later performances. Still don't believe she can win this without getting the younger audience on her side.

Bets for tonight:
Wagner 6th Elim LAY 4.7 (or whatever it crashes down to later )
Aiden 6th Elim LAY 11.5
Aiden Ouright BACK 38

Good luck all!

jack ur a mug .

Yep Jack.

Just lay Wagner to win and forget about all these stupid stats

I appreciate the work, Jack.  Confirms my own guess for the bottom two; Belle Amie and Treyc.  Paije and Katie appeared late enough in the show to get sufficient support this week, although their time must be up soon...

Treyc 2-1 for b2 about, if you're interested.

Nice one Jack - on the money again.

Thanks Dizzy not the exact bottom two, but well within the error threshold. All recommended bets came good.

Looking even better for Wagner after last night The reaction to him getting through gets stronger and stronger each week

Anything this week Jack?

Jack is slacking this week.

Poor form.

Good to see your still putting a shift in.

Alas the X Factor team decided to completely mess me around by merging lots of facebook groups, thus completely sending my stats haywire figured it out now.

Popularity rating:

Matt 2284
1D 1279
Aiden 392
Wagner 301
Rebecca 300
Cher 149
Mary 103
Paije 94
Katie 61
Treyc 38

Momentum rating (new formula!):

Matt +62
Paije +4
Rebecca -1
Aiden -2
Treyc -6
1D -8
Wagner -14
Katie -15
Cher -16
Mary -17

Absolutely huge increase in popularity for Matt, completely dominating the field at the moment based on the numbers. Big drops for Mary and Cher (who was actually losing fans on facebook quicker than she was adding them for a while last night ). Numbers decent for Aiden, Rebecca and Paije.

Bit of a drop in momentum for Wagner which is worrying, would not feel safe laying him for eviction this week. The momuntum is a big factor when it comes to who will be in the bottom two.

Treyc looks doomed on the numbers, and seems decent value to go tonight. Possible Mary might squeeze into the bottom two with her over Katie, but rubbish momentum numbers for the pair of them suggests Mary will probably scrape through with the larger outstanding fanbase.

Katie looks a bit short to me on these stats, and Treyc a bit long, so bets for tonight are:

Treyc 6th Elim BACK
Katie 6th Elim (cautious) LAY
Aiden Outright BACK 28

Good luck all!

jack

Excellent as ever.  Keep up the goood work we all like to see what you come up with and it's always good stuff.

Glad it's useful Lou, especially with your boy right up there!

Sterling work, jack.

Rebecca flat is not surprising to me. She is too subtle for the xf mob.

jack

Yes he's doing ok so far but hope he can keep it up.  His rivals are dropping away gradually though and all the stats seem to have him well clear.  Long way to go still.

Excellent stuff Jack.

Confirmation bias cider?

Rebecca is definitely gaining momentum on other measures.
I had her with a quarter of Matts support on twiiter in week 2. She's now getting half of his support.

She's also smashing her previous numbers of thumbs up on the itv site and is closing on Matt there too.

It's very hard to lead all the way in these shows as we've seen time and time again.

Perhaps fll!

It's debatable who is the most competent singer between the two, and they have different styles too. Both immensely strong for this format. 50/50 depending upon taste I suppose.

However, Matt is so much more of a voting proposition. He sucks the voters into the story that he is singing, look at Chezza's reaction which I believe was a genuine one, as she missed him doing this at BC. He has woman licking out of the palm of his hand. They vote.

lol eating out of the palm of his hand, even!

Licking too I suspect :)

Yep, I agree in a fair run race he wins, but I think Cowell made it fairly clear last night who he'll be backing in the later stages.

I'd rather have them both onside and lay the likes of 1D who wouldn't be value at double their current price.

Yes he was piling it on for Rebecca. If she wasn't getting middling slots I'd suggest she might have needed a nudge up to be safe, who knows perhaps she does?

He might want a genuine h2h as either would be acceptable winners and he likes them both. He complemented Matt on his attitude again ln.

It just seems unlikely to me that they'll allow the two to amble to the last Sunday without trying to shake it up somehow.

Matt has reached the 'creative' peak arguably

Doing a boot camp song already

I thought the same last night GB - could have peaked too early?

Still looks increasingly like a two horse race to me though - Matt and Rebecca all the way.  They stood out a million miles above the rest in last night's show...

spot on again!

oh I love these stats

Yes well done Jack and as I posted earlier today:

So going for the obvious with katie and treyc with (toss up) treyc going on the basis that there is nothing in it between them poll wise so value lies with treyc.

Looks like all roads lead to Rome [;)]

Given your figures jack, have you seen the 3-1 for Paije to beat TreyC in the match bet ?

Forgot about this, go collect

Bingo bango - on the money again...

Yes thanks for that Cider I owe you a drink. Did you get on?

any updates? wagner shoots back to top spot surely?

I'll post up a full set up of numbers tomorrow when the late-slot bias has worked it's way out. Tends to be skewed towards the later acts at first, and then settles down. Probably relates to the actual voting quite well actually.

Initially looking good for Rebecca and 1D, not bad for Matt and Cher, poor for Mary, Aiden and Paije, and bad for Wagner and Katie. Wagner in a rather precarious looking 5th place

how ****, said to the missus this eve that i suspected wagner might be polling around 5th spot now

he's just revving up for a momentum charge into the final i would think, it's no good peaking too soon in this show

**** = kweer

that (when spelt correctly) is still a normal word last time i checked, bf

How kweer- wasnt that a catchphrase from 'the fast show', some time back..

You about Jack?

Where's Jack gone, is he ok?

If he's anything like me, he'll still be in mourning after Sunday's elimination deadlock result!

Hi peeps! Apologies about last week, a mixture of boredom with X Factor, lack of value, being busy, and X Factor team messing with my data sources meant I didn't post. Aiden going was a bit of a shocker, but he was certainly low in the stats. Wish I'd been around more to spot that opportunity.

Initial reactions from this week (momentum in brackets)

Matt 1033 (-1)
Cher 882 (-12)
1 Direction 850 (-11)
Katie 748 (+17)
Wagner 675 (+9)
Rebecca 393 (-4)
Mary 218 (0)
Paije 201 (+2)

Very interesting week in terms of bottom 2, Paije and Mary look the bets to me at the prices. Wagner a screaming lay.

Fairly neutral in the outrights, already loaded up with Rebecca lays, and can't see any other obvious value around. Haven't been placing many bets lately.

Bets for this week:
Mary 9th Elim BACK 15
Paije 9th Elim BACK 5.4
Wagner 9th Elim LAY 2.6

Good luck as ever peeps

Jack

Great stuff as ever.  Well done cheers.

Good to have you back Jack, always a good read

jack where u get your stats from

We missed you last week!  Interesting to see Rebecca in free-fall - and Cher rating so highly.

Paije is the one act that seemingly defies the stats though - so perhaps it's worth a little tickle on Rebecca for bottom two too?  Although she would never lose a sing off, she could be a little vulnerable this week.

Paije back and Wagner lay come good another good week.

Cher too high on the stats (a la Lloyd last year methinks), the negative momentum was a big warning flag though. Not especially surprised.

Thought I'd show you the kind of reaction there is after the results show, this is the current state of affairs:

Wagner 1619 (+35) (just LOL)
Cher 1032 (+1)
Matt 927 (-4)
1D 740 (-13)
Katie 273 (-6)
Rebecca 258 (-4)
Mary 141 (-2)

Will obviously settle down during the week, but looking like Mary, Katie and Rebecca are the initial targets to go on Saturday

mary's voters don't have laptops.

yep, nice work jack. I agree with aa though. Mary nearer the top than bottom this week.

Jack I posted this on FLL's stats thread last night:

Asaparagus I would argue that Jack's stats support the Cher plunge as he has her as the biggest percentage (?) faller. Momentum is everything in these things imo and once you have lost it if you don't have a big core vote you are toast.

Cher vote = emperor's new clothes.

The trick with all these stats is gleaning all the information you can from them. I have said "percentage" but I think they are just actual numbers?

I'm a lot cheesed off with survation. They emailed me the poll at 8.29pm tonight that had Cher well bottom. Poll line closed by then I think. That will teach me to be honest and tick the "yes I gamble on this" box as clearly they delay the email for those who tick that box. Grrrrr [>o][>o][>o]

Yes GB2 good call, and agreed - momentum is everything tis why I put the momentum figures in, and it certainly was against Cher at the weekend. Also think the teeny vote was a bit distracted voting for Katie - Cher should fly though next week after this wake-up call.

Unlucky with survation although not sure how much I'd trust them anyway!

cher is a certainty to survive next week

George, i got the Email at exactly the same time

I never tick the gamble box, obviously, I think it just went out late

Looking at your momentum stats Jack, 1D are only positive twice?

That fits with what I've found elsewhere. They're not winning over many, if any new fans.

Jack how do you work out your momentum and what do the figures represent or is that a trade secret? Your Wagner momentum figure for example seems to have caught the trend in his favour even though it predated Biffas comments. Not prying just curious.

Thanks A1 just because I'm paranoid doesn't mean they're not out to get me [smiley:crazy]

Hello chaps, the original specials data nerd is back. Some truly great stuff on this thread but I feel you have yet to crack some hurdles.

I have used most of the tools going over the last 3 years - Polls, Google Trends, Twitter, Streamgraphs, Socialmention, Facebook Analysis, Trendrr (the best by a mile if used correctly but is sadly now a pay site) and many more.

I now think the key to this is momentum. Look at last years stats (http://xfactor.itv.com/2009/news/viewer/item_100312.htm) and you can see that it was about now that Joe pulled clear. I have a lovely graph overlaying Twitter mentions for all contestants for the whole 3 months against the actual voting figures - the relationship is non linear. However momentum shifts predict things a lot better.

After all this work I still feel I can predict the results better than my statistical models can - hence I don't bother much (except BGT where Twitter rules).

This is the week that the winner will show themselves - whoever blows them away with a late slot will win it imo. (and underestimate Mary at your peril).

who hasnt had the pimp slot yet?

matt?
mary?
one d?

help me out here..

all the info on the "order thread"  nick

thanks mate

Hi Occam good to see you back. I always thought your stats predictions were either spookily accurate or miles off which reflects the inconsistent nature of the beast.

What has puzzled me this year is the accuracy of fll's twitter stats given their demographic.

I agree with you and have said elsewhere that the Big Mo (as they call it in US elections) is everything. I will concentrate my number crunching on trying to establish this in future weeks.

I also agree that gut instinct is as good as anything. Just watch it with an open mind. Pick up the phone within 10 mins of the last act (like most do)and see where your vote goes.  If you can be truly objectve you won't go far wrong. 5 hours of number crunching to back up the gut feeling doesn't go amiss mind.

nick

I think Matt's had a pimp slot hasn't he? Mary certainly hasn't and don't think One D have either?

matt had pimp slot week 1, one d have had it too, mary hasnt....interesting, she may be due it this week, though with two songs it may make far less of a difference

seven left, two songs each, this is the week when it all comes together

when we see really who can possibly win this thing, and surely, surely, that doesnt apply to katie, mary, wagner or cher

nick

I agree with you but would add mary as a 'possible'.  Would have definately had Cher too but how can she get over the fact she's been bottom 2 proving she's not getting enough votes.  So for me Matt, One D, Rebecca ..... and possibly Mary can win it.  She must be due a 'pimp slot' which can only help too.

I have listed weekly singing positions of remaining contestants on Order thread.

The way these shows pan out these days (esp XF, AI) I wouldn't assume anyone is "due" anything though.

This week:

1 Direction 1479 (+10)
Matt 1372 (-2)
Cher 1226 (-10)
Rebecca 887 (+2)
Mary 338 (+1)

Cher looks value to go to me. Cher supporters appear to be turning to 1 Direction - there's simply not room for two teeny acts at this stage. Cher going would be a great result for 1 Direction's chances.

Jack - you and Figgy agree that Cher is the value bet to go, but Mary is some way adrift on both sets of stats...

Surely this points to Mary finishing bottom of the vote?