World Cup
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marychain's World Cup Preview
marychain's World Cup Preview
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Thanks Rob Green, did me a favour there. You utter (unt. Needed it as well after looking likely from Gerrard's early opener.
A profit of 2.1 points from the bet. So, Day 2 P/L +.1 points. Overall P/L +1.1 points. |
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Right, really looking forward to seeing the Slovenians. Remember them being neat, tidy, with loads of possession and some decent attacking players. Not sure that they will light the tournament up exactly, but could get a couple of goals here. Algeria will be looking at this match as their best chance of a win, and if it doesnt go to plan, can see them getting frustrated.
My main bet today is sending off yes 2 points @ 4.2 Also going to have small bet on Novakovic to score .5 pts @ 3, FGS .25 pts @ 6.4 and .25pts unquoted @ 22 |
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terrible game so far
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Good old Algeria, can always rely on them to go mental and lose their heads.
Really disappointed with the Slovenians though, they had an opportunity to liven this tournament up by going for it, but they seemed more concerned about not losing. Only two three teams have really gone for it so far in this tournament, South Korea, Argentina and South Africa (in the second half). The rest have been very ordinary and defensive. So, I lost 1 point on Novakovivc and unquoted, but won 6.4 points on the sending off, or 6.2 points after commission, for a profit on the game of 5.2 points. Day 3 P/L +5.2 points Overall P/L +6.3 points |
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A couple of scorer bets in this one.
John Mensah FGS .25 pt @ 90 to score .25 pt @ 40 Kwadwoh Asamoah FGS .25 pt @ 24 to score .25 pt @ 13 |
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nothing to do with the World Cup but Mrs Slocum looks a very decent price at 7.4 to win the St Jude Classic golf tonight. If we consider Garrigus is probably going to choke then Slocum is effectively 1 shot off the lead fighting with Karlsson and Westwood, neither of who are prvoen finishers.
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A bet in running in the Serbia v Ghana game. It's 0-0 after 66 minutes, and I think Ghana are getting stronger. The available price seems too big, so 1 pt on Ghana at 5.7
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So a good chance a piece for Mensah and Asamoah when the score was 0-0, but no goals and a 1pt loss. However the in running back of Ghana nets a profit of 4.7 points, or 4.6 after commission. So a profit of 3.6 pts for the game in total.
Day 3 P/L +8.8pts Overall P/L +9.9pts |
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Summary of bets so far. All P/Ls are after commission
Pre tournament Bets (27 points staked) Outright (7 points) 4 pts - Spain @ 5.1 2 pts - Argentina @ 8.2 1pt - France @ 23.0 Goalscorers (5 points) 2pts - Higuain @ 26 .5 pt - Di Maria @ 1000 & .5pt - top 4 @ 150 .5 pt - Navas @ 920 & .5pt top 4 @ 120 .5 pt - Silva @ 700 & .5pt top 4 @ 100 Other Bets(4 points) 1pt - Final Referee – Frank de Bleekere @ 7.2 1pt (risk) - Final Four lay England @ 2.46 1pt - Nominate Finalists France and Spain @ 65 1pt - England Team Top Goalscorer Aaron Lennon @ 38 Group Bets (11 points) A - 2pts - South Africa to qualify @ 2.9 B - 1pt – straight forecast Argentina/South Korea @ 6 C - 1pt – Slovenia to qualify @ 3.1 D - 1pt – lay Germany to win the group @ 1.95 E - 1pt – straight forecast Holland/Cameroon @ 3.7 F - 1pt – Slovakia to qualify @ 2.3 G - 1pt – Dual Forecast Brazil/Ivory Coast @ 2.7 H - 1pt straight forecast Spain/Chile @ 2.3 And - 2pts - Switzerland to finish bottom @ 4.1 Bets during tournament 1. 1pt - lay Mexico/Uruguay double @ 2.04. WINS +1 point. 2. 1pt - draw ht/Argentina ft @ 4.6. LOSES -1 point. 3. 1pt - sending off Argentina v Nigeria @ 4.2. LOSES -1 point. 4. 1pt - England v USA +1.5 first half goals @ 3.2. WINS +2.1 points. 5. 2pt - Algeria v Slovenia sending off @ 4.2. WINS +6.2 points 6. 1pt - Stake split between unquoted @ 22, Novakovic FGS @ 6.6 and Novakovic to score @ 3. LOSES -1 point. 7. 1pt - Stake split between Asamoah FGS @ 24, to score @ 13 and Mensah FGS @ 90, to score @ 40. LOSES -1 point. 8. 1pt - Ghana to beat Serbia (i/r) @ 5.7. [b]WINS 4.6 points.[/b] P/L so far on settled bets +9.9 pts |
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9. 2pts - Germany v Australia both teams to score @ 2.26
10. 1pt - Over 3.5 goals @ 4.2 11. 2pts - Ghana v Germany @ 5.5 12. 2pts - Slovakia v Italy @ 6.8 13. 2pts - Honduras v Switzerland @ 4.8 Right, a load of bets here, so here's some explanation. I fancy some goals in this. Germany could well win this comfortably, but they arent the most convincing team at the back, and I think Australia could nick one. They dont have a lot up front, but they will be pretty dangerous from set pieces, and I wouldnt be surprised if they took the lead. 2.26 is pretty big for both teams to score, so I've gone for 2pts, with 1 pt on +3.5 goals @ 4.2. For the other bets, (11-13) they are all on the third round of group games, but I've got these bets on early. These are three teams that are available at big prices, but could have a significant advantage with the altitude. Germany, Italy and Switzerland are all due to play their first two matches at sea level before moving up to altitude for their third. Their opposition, Ghana, Slovakia and Honduras play all their three games at altitude, so should be well acclimatised by the time of these group deciders. Even if altitude doesnt make a difference, they are all going to be playing against fit, athletic and motivated opposition, but with the altitude factor, these could turn into very decent prices, and a win in any of the three games will secure a profit. |
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Germany are 2-0 up just before half time against Australia and look like they can slice through the Aussie back four almost at will.
14. 2pts Germany v Australia unquoted i/r @ 3.25 |
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Shame Cahill missed from point blank range of that corner about 3 minutes in, or it would have been a clean sweep on the bets front in this match.
Still, +3.5 goals and unquoted in. 9. 2pts - Germany v Australia both teams to score @ 2.26 LOSES -2 Points. 10. 1pt - Over 3.5 goals @ 4.2 WINS +3.1 Points 14. 2pts Germany v Australia unquoted i/r @ 3.25 WINS 4.4 Points A profit of 5.5 points for the game. Day 3 P/L +14.3 points Overall Profit +15.4 points |
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nice work, good couple of i/r bets today
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Summary of bets so far. All P/Ls are after commission
Pre tournament Bets Outright (7 points) 4 pts - Spain @ 5.1 2 pts - Argentina @ 8.2 1pt - France @ 23.0 Goalscorers (5 points) 2pts - Higuain @ 26 .5 pt - Di Maria @ 1000 & .5pt - top 4 @ 150 .5 pt - Navas @ 920 & .5pt top 4 @ 120 .5 pt - Silva @ 700 & .5pt top 4 @ 100 Other Bets (4 points) 1pt - Final Referee – Frank de Bleekere @ 7.2 1pt (risk) - Final Four lay England @ 2.46 1pt - Nominate Finalists France and Spain @ 65 1pt - England Team Top Goalscorer Aaron Lennon @ 38 Group Bets (11 points) A - 2pts - South Africa to qualify @ 2.9 B - 1pt – straight forecast Argentina/South Korea @ 6 C - 1pt – Slovenia to qualify @ 3.1 D - 1pt – lay Germany to win the group @ 1.95 E - 1pt – straight forecast Holland/Cameroon @ 3.7 F - 1pt – Slovakia to qualify @ 2.3 G - 1pt – Dual Forecast Brazil/Ivory Coast @ 2.7 H - 1pt straight forecast Spain/Chile @ 2.3 And - 2pts - Switzerland to finish bottom @ 4.1 Bets during tournament 1. 1pt - lay Mexico/Uruguay double @ 2.04. WINS +1 point. 2. 1pt - draw ht/Argentina ft @ 4.6. LOSES -1 point. 3. 1pt - sending off Argentina v Nigeria @ 4.2. LOSES -1 point.4. 1pt - England v USA +1.5 first half goals @ 3.2. WINS +2.1 points.5. 2pt - Algeria v Slovenia sending off @ 4.2. WINS +6.2 points6. 1pt - Stake split between unquoted @ 22, Novakovic FGS @ 6.6 and Novakovic to score @ 3. LOSES -1 point. 7. 1pt - Stake split between Asamoah FGS @ 24, to score @ 13 and Mensah FGS @ 90, to score @ 40. LOSES -1 point. 8. 1pt - Ghana to beat Serbia (i/r) @ 5.7. WINS 4.6 points.9. 2pts - Germany v Australia both teams to score @ 2.26 LOSES -2 Points. 10. 1pt - Over 3.5 goals @ 4.2 WINS +3.1 Points 11. 2pts - Ghana v Germany @ 5.5 12. 2pts - Slovakia v Italy @ 6.8 13. 2pts - Honduras v Switzerland @ 4.8 14. 2pts Germany v Australia unquoted i/r @ 3.25 WINS 4.4 Points Day 3 P/L +14.3 points Overall Profit +15.4 points 15. 2pts double Cameroon/lay Italy @ 3.64 16. 1pt Holland v Denmark unquoted @ 9 17. 2pts Holland v Denamrk Holland (-1.5) @ 2.8 |
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18. 1pt - draw ht/Cameroon ft @ 6.0
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impressive stuff, MC.
I'm not sure about your thinking on the Swiss, tho. As far as I know, they play at fairly high altitude when they're at home. Haven't a clue about Honduras - do they have mountains there ? |
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about the swiss when they plat at home they dont play at any altitude, 400 to 500 hundred meters at the most.
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sry for noob question but what exactly is a point?
Is it just to show the ratios of your stakes or does it refer to an amount? |
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A point is just to show the ratios of stakes. A point does have a monetary value, but I wouldnt be so crude as to say how much it is.
Re the Swiss and altitude. I think it is all about acclimatisation, and apparently, training at altitude does not equate to playing at altitude. Therefore Switzerland, Ghana and Slovakia SHOULD have an advantage in those third games as they'll have already had two games at the height and their opponents will be altitude virgins. A bet for Italy v Paraguay. 2 pts - sending off @ 4.2 both these teams can lose the plot at times. Now Paraguay have taken the lead things might get a bit frantic. The ref seems to be handling it well so far, but wouldnt surprise me at all to see someone get their marching orders, and the slick turf can always help a defender get caught out or slide into a challenge. |
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19. 2pts - Italy v Paraguay sending off @ 4.2
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Summary of bets so far. All P/Ls are after commission
Pre tournament Bets Outright (7 points) 4 pts - Spain @ 5.1 2 pts - Argentina @ 8.2 1pt - France @ 23.0 Goalscorers (5 points) 2pts - Higuain @ 26 .5 pt - Di Maria @ 1000 & .5pt - top 4 @ 150 .5 pt - Navas @ 920 & .5pt top 4 @ 120 .5 pt - Silva @ 700 & .5pt top 4 @ 100 OTHER BETS (4 points) 1pt - Final Referee – Frank de Bleekere @ 7.2 1pt (risk) - Final Four lay England @ 2.46 1pt - Nominate Finalists France and Spain @ 65 1pt - England Team Top Goalscorer Aaron Lennon @ 38 GROUP BETS (11 points) A - 2pts - South Africa to qualify @ 2.9 B - 1pt – straight forecast Argentina/South Korea @ 6 C - 1pt – Slovenia to qualify @ 3.1 D - 1pt – lay Germany to win the group @ 1.95 E - 1pt – straight forecast Holland/Cameroon @ 3.7 F - 1pt – Slovakia to qualify @ 2.3 G - 1pt – Dual Forecast Brazil/Ivory Coast @ 2.7 H - 1pt straight forecast Spain/Chile @ 2.3 And - 2pts - Switzerland to finish bottom @ 4.1 Bets during tournament 1. 1pt - lay Mexico/Uruguay double @ 2.04. WINS +1 point. 2. 1pt - draw ht/Argentina ft @ 4.6. LOSES -1 point. 3. 1pt - sending off Argentina v Nigeria @ 4.2. LOSES -1 point.4. 1pt - England v USA +1.5 first half goals @ 3.2. WINS +2.1 points.5. 2pt - Algeria v Slovenia sending off @ 4.2. WINS +6.2 points6. 1pt - Stake split between unquoted @ 22, Novakovic FGS @ 6.6 and Novakovic to score @ 3. LOSES -1 point.7. 1pt - Stake split between Asamoah FGS @ 24, to score @ 13 and Mensah FGS @ 90, to score @ 40. LOSES -1 point. 8. 1pt - Ghana to beat Serbia (i/r) @ 5.7. WINS 4.6 points. 9. 2pts - Germany v Australia both teams to score @ 2.26 LOSES -2 Points. 10. 1pt - Over 3.5 goals @ 4.2 WINS +3.1 Points 11. 2pts - Ghana v Germany @ 5.5 12. 2pts - Slovakia v Italy @ 6.8 13. 2pts - Honduras v Switzerland @ 4.8 14. 2pts - Germany v Australia unquoted i/r @ 3.25 WINS 4.4 Points15. 2pts - double Cameroon/lay Italy @ 3.64 LOSES 2 Points 16. 1pt - Holland v Denmark unquoted @ 9 LOSES 1 Point 17. 2pts - Holland v Denamrk Holland (-1.5) @ 2.8 WINS 3.5 Points18. 1pt - draw ht/Cameroon ft @ 6.0 LOSES 1 Point 19. 2pts - Italy v Paraguay sending off 2 Points @ 4.2 LOSES 2 Points |
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Day 4 P/L -2.5 points
Overall P/L +12.9 points |
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20. Lay Portugal v Ivory Coast. Risk 3 points to win 2.25 points.
On paper this looks like it could be a cracker, but so many sides have failed to impress so far in this tournament that you cant help feel that keeping the draw onside with any bet is important. Portugal have been fairly poor in the build up to this. They beat Cameroon, but that isnt the best of fom lines, and a win agaisnt Mozambique and a draw with Cape Verde Islands hardly inspires confidence. Nani is out as well, and Ronaldo doesnt seem to be able to carry the team on his own. A lot depends on the fitness of Drogba here, but unlike the other African sides that have played so far, Ivory Coast have enough genuine stars to succeed without him. So in anticipation of another dreary start by a fancied European side I am laying Portugal with a sizeable bet. |
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A win of 2.2 points on the lay of Portugal. An overall profit so far of 15.1 points. And Im getting right in there and sticking two big bets on what I expect to be a comprehensive Brazil win tonight. Many sides have struggled so far, and this has given goals tonight a really nice price, so now is time to bet like men.
21. 4 pts - Brazil (-2.5 goals) @ 2.3 22. 2 pts - Brazil v South Korea unquoted @ 3.3 |
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I Have also split one point on three players to score. Lucio pops up with goals for club and country, Michel Bastos seems to get forward from left back and has a good shot on him and Ramires will surely come on at some stage, and is a massive price to nick one as a sub. So, I have done:
.25 point Lucio to score @ 9.6 .25 point Michel Bastos to score @ 7.4 .5 point Ramires to score @ 15.5 23. 1pt - Stake split between Lucio to score @ 9.6, Michel Bastos to score @ 7.4 and Ramires to score @ 15.5. |
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21. 4 pts - Brazil (-2.5 goals) @ 2.3 LOSES 4 POINTS
22. 2 pts - Brazil v South Korea unquoted @ 3.3 LOSES 2 POINTS 23. 1pt - Stake split between Lucio to score @ 9.6, Michel Bastos to score @ 7.4 and Ramires to score @ 15.5. LOSES 1 POINT Game P/L -7 pts Overall P/L 8.1 pts A horrible loss, I've given back half the money I've made over the tournament so far. However, I have learnt two or three very valuable points about this tournament, and using what I have learnt I have found the most stupidly wrong price for a long long time in one of tomorrow's matches. I will post as soon as I am matched. |
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24. 5 pts - Spain (-1.5) v Switzerland @ 2.14
25. 2 pts - Spain v Switzerland unquoted @ 6.2 This may look like bounce after the losses yesterday, but I seriously think Spain should be long odds on to win by more than 1. The game is at Durban which is at sea level. The only other game at Durban was Germany's 4-0 win over Australia. I am confident that Spain will change the shape of the tournament by giving Switzerland a hiding tomorrow. Switzerland had a ludicrously easy group, with only Greece in it as a decent side and would probably have come 4th or 5th in some groups. They lost to Luxembourg at home in qualifying. Moreover, their style will suit Spain down to the ground, they are pedestrian and have a rigid system that Spain will slowly but surely dismantle. I could be horribly wrong, and it wouldnt be the first time, but I am going big on Spain and unquoted. And overs if the price gets big enough. They are all wrong. |
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26. 1pt - treble; Chile v Honduras under 1.5 goals, South Africa v Uruguay under 1.5 goals, Spain v Switzerland over 2.5 goals. @ 14.08
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learning lessons
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overall P/L 0.1pts
27. 1pt - Slovenia v USA Over 2.5 goals @ 2.68 |
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27. 1pt - Slovenia v USA Over 2.5 goals @ 2.68 WINS 1.6 pts
Overall Profit +1.7 pts back on track after the Spain losses, hope Slovakia can go on to win to bring the Group C "to qualify" bet in. Main Goalscorer bet is looking good too with Higuain's hat-trick for Argentina |
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28. 1pt - Draw ht/England ft @ 4.6
Think England should win this, but can see it being tight early on, and it might take until the second half to break Algeria down. |
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nice thread Marychain, i too was on Higuain at 25's... happy days :)
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thanks mate. A 1 point loss on the draw/England bet, 0-0 at half time, but even then I couldnt see where a goal was going to come from. If I'd been near my machine I would have laid England at that point at odds on.
1 bet for today, I think Ghana will have too much for the Aussies and are far too big at 2.36. 29. 2pts - Ghana v Australia @ 2.36 |
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a loss of 2 points on Ghana, and for the first time I am down overall on the bets during the tournament, although only by 1.3 points.
Two bets today. 30. 1pt - New Zealand +1.0 & +1.5 @ 2.64 31. 2pts - Brazil v Ivory Coast Overs @ 2.14 |
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A win of 1.5 points in the Italy match.
The Brazil overs bet is actually at 2.28, not 2.14 31. 2pts - Brazil v Ivory Coast Overs @ 2.28 |
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Some more bets. I have laid off the 2 pts on Argentina on the outright at 5.5 leaving small green on them and put my 2 points on Brazil at 6.2.
My reasons are that I think Brazil's perceived poor start in this world cup has been overblown, they looked good against North Korea first time out, in the coldest temperature ever for a World Cup match. The Europeans are struggling, whereas some Southern Hemisphere sides seem to be thriving. Argentina look good, but there defence has looked dodgy at times. I think Brazil, contrary to my original thoughts, look like a better all round side. For tonight's match, I add a big bet on Brazil and I split a point between Michel Bastos and Elano FGS and to score. I have backed Bastos .25pts FGS @ 27 and .25 pts to score @ 9.6 and Elano .25pts FGS @ 16 and .25pts to score @ 6.0 32. 3pts - Brazil @ 1.8 33. 1pt - split between Michel Bastos and Elano, FGS and to score. |
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with you on Brazil- way too big at 1.8
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pleasing
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