World Cup
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OUTRIGHT I think Spain will win the World Cup. Hardly original, but they have the best team, the best squad, back ups for every position and stars in every position. In Villa and Torres they have plenty of goals, they have the best three playmakers in Iniesta, Fabregas and Xavi, and loads of wide talent in Pedro, Navas, Silva and Mata. They have the best keeper in the World in nets, with two more of the top 6 on the bench, and a settled defence. One question against them is whether they will lack the steel of Senna in the middle, but they will have the ball so much they probably wont need to win it back much.
I think the second best side is Argentina, but they are due to meet in the Semi finals all being well, and I can see the Spanish getting the better of them. Argentina will be fluent, and score a lot of goals. They were the best side in the tournament 4 years ago, until they were surprisingly knocked out by the home side. I think they look a better side this year, with Messi and Di Maria either side of Higuain, I can see them doing very well. People question the manager, but they have done well when it has counted, with a top win in Montevideo to seal the qualification against Uruguay, and a 1-0 win in Germany in a friendly earlier this year also shows they can defend when they need to. I’m already on the Argies at 9/1, but by backing them as a Plan B at 8.2, you are at least assured one team in the final if all goes well and Spain and Argentina meet in the semis.
I think Brazil might not do as well as expected this time round. They don’t look that fluent to me, and Im not sure how much depth they have either. They might well win again, but they don’t look as strong to me as in recent years. One team always gets an easy run to the latter stages, and this time round I can see that team being France. They could get South Korea and then England on the way to the semi finals, and I think they are worth a small investment at 23.0. If they get on a roll they could well be a tough match for Brazil in the semi finals.
Recommended bets
Spain 4 pts @ 5.1
Argentina 2 pts @ 8.2
France 1pt @ 23.0
TOP GOALSCORER Villa is the obvious choice, and Spain could well score loads, but Villa is too short for me, and I have always thought Argentina look like a team that is full of goals. If, as seems likely, Maradona goes with a 4-3-3 employing Higuain up top with Di Maria and Messi out wide, then Higuain will look huge at 26.0. Im also on at 25/1 ew with Will Hill. The value is already gone on Messi (now 12.0) but I have backed the up and coming Benfica youngster Di Maria, rumoured to be signing for Real Madrid in a £40m move this week, at 1000.0. and 150 for top 4. I have also had small investments in a couple of Spain’s wide men, in Navas at 920 average and 120 top 4 and Silva at 700 average and 100 top 4.
Recommended bets
2pts Higuain @ 26
.5 pts Di Maria @ 1000, .5pts top 4 @ 150
.5 pts Navas @ 920, .5pts top 4 @ 120
.5pts Silva @ 700, .5pts top 4 @ 100
OTHER BETS
Final Referee – Frank de Bleekere 1pt @ 7.2
Final Four lay England @ 2.46
Nominate Finalists France and Spain @ 65
England Team Top Goalscorer Aaron Lennon @ 38
GROUP A
France
Mexico
South Africa
Uruguay
At first sight, this looks like mission impossible for the hosts - the finalists from 2006, a quality and slick outfit from Central America in Mexico, and a decent side from South America in Uruguay. But South Africa have a lot of things going for them - they are very hard to beat now under Carlos Alberto Perreira, and they have home advantage, with thousands of screaming fans blowing horns behind them. They are unbeaten in 15 matches, and although none of those games have been against top quality opposition, they are well organised and will have their confidence boosted. France’s form has been dreadful, although I would be wary of laying them as I can see them surprising people and actually doing OK. Although both Mexico and Uruguay will have their supporters, and they both have their star players, neither have a reputation for grinding out results when it really matters, and it is quite possible either or both of these will bottle it against a hard working home side so I can see the South Africans getting through the group.
Recommended bet
2pt - South Africa to qualify @ 2.9
GROUP B
Argentina
Nigeria
Greece
South Korea
Argentina looked nailed on to win group B, but are a prohibitive 1/2 to do so. With their striking power, I can see them going a long way in the tournament and they could get a few goals to get them going in the group stages. So, in many ways we are interested in who will progress with them, and my money is on South Korea. Nigeria have flattered to deceive for a long time, and although they should get plenty of support as Africa’s most populous nation, and they have plenty of decent players, they haven’t really gelled as a team for a long time. Greece, as a solid team with a decent goalscorer in Gekas, have many of the ingredients for success, but look like quite a slow side, and I wonder whether that could be their achillles heel in a group full of pace. South Korea looked like a decent side against Spain recently, and if they can finish some of the many chances they are bound to create, they could trouble all the sides in this group, and go further than many will expect.
Recommended bet
1pt – straight forecast Argentina/South Korea @ 6
GROUP C
England
Slovenia
USA
Algeria
Fabio Capello would never display any sort of disrespect for any opponent, but secretly he must have been delighted with the group they got, with practically the easiest sides from the Africa/South America pot AND the rest of Europe pot. England should qualify, and should win the group, although they will inevitably make harder work of it than they need to. But England are ludicrously short to win the group and to qualify, so the best bets lie elsewhere in Group C. USA are second favourites from the group, and look like a decent side. They did well in the Confederations Cup, giving Brazil a shock in the final, and they wont be intimidated by anyone. Algeria look like a very skilful side, and in Ziani, Belhadj and Bougherra have players with the ability to set the tournament alight. You have to question the temperament of Algeria though, and I think they are rightly outsiders. I think the surprise side in group C could be Slovenia. They are a tight knit outfit with a lot of ability, and I can see them pippin the Americans for second place in the group. I think their striker Novakovic, could be one of the stars of the tournament.
Recommended bet
1pt – Slovenia to qualify @ 3.1
GROUP D
Germany
Serbia
Ghana
Australia
For me, this is the most even of the groups and any one of three teams could win the group. I think Australia are rightly the outsiders, as they don’t seem to have replaced Viduka, and lack any real stars once Cahill is quietened. Germany are seen as favourites, but they don’t seem to be as well organised or have as many winners as usual. Yes, we said that 4 years ago, but they were at home then, and radically overperformed. This year they will face a tough challenge to get anywhere near as far, and I don’t think they should be odds on to win this group. Serbia have loads of talent all over the pitch and could do anything on their day, and Ghana, despite the loss of Essien, will be a very good side as well. Germany may well get through the group stages, but I think a lay of them to win the group is the way forward here.
Recommended bet 1pt – lay Germany to win the group @ 1.95
GROUP E
Holland
Denmark
Cameroon
Japan
Holland, with or without Robben, should have easily enough to get through this group, and could go a long way in the tournament. Their issue is, like England, they have a horrible record in penalty shootouts, and their defence may not stand up against the top sides in the world in the later stages, but I expect to shine in the first half of the World Cup. Their group doesn’t look the hardest either, as Denmark are filled with not-quite-top-level and aging players, Cameroon are in one of their less mighty guises, and Japan don’t look like world beaters either. Holland are short to win the group at 1.6, so the bet for me is to combine them with Cameroon in a forecast. Cameroon are pacy, strong, and under Paul Le Guen, well organised to boot. They have enough Premier League stars to do well, and If they can get Webo or Efoulou to bring the best out of Etoo they can thrive.
Recommended bet
1pt – straight forecast Holland/Cameroon @ 3.7
GROUP F
Italy
Paraguay
New Zealand
Slovakia
Italy should go through, and New Zealand should go out, but for me the crunch game in this group is Paraguay against Slovakia, and I think Slovakia will come out on top. Paraguay are a decent side, have plenty of Wworld Cup experience and some top players in Santa Cruz, Valdez and Cardozo, but they have flopped too many times in the past for me to have any confidence. Slovakia got here by rights, finishing top of a group that contained Czech Republic, Poland, Slovenia and Northern Ireland, they keep the ball really well and in Hamsik, Vittek and Sestak Slovakia have plenty of playmaking and attacking talent. Skrtel is probably their best known player, but I think by the end of the tournament they could have a few more playing in the top leagues.
Recommended bet
1pt – Slovakia to qualify @ 2.3
GROUP G
Brazil
Portugal
Ivory Coast
North Korea
Another 3 horse race, or a supposedly 2 horse race but I think Ivory Coast can surprise a few by getting out of the group. In my eyes we can rule out North Korea immediately, and Brazil and Portugal look very strong, but I can see weaknesses. Brazil don’t appear to have the out and out talent of previous years, and I can see them getting beaten at some stage, and Portugal have looked very poor so many times recently. They only just got past Bosnia in a play off, lost to some very ordinary teams in their group and could only draw 0-0 with Cape Verde Islands (everybody on the Island is very disappointed) last time out. Yes they have Ronaldo and Nani, but that’s about it, and for me they look a very ordinary team indeed. Ivory Coast will miss Drogba big style, but they still got a strong enough team to get into the knockout stages.
Recommended bet
1pt – Dual Forecast Brazil/Ivory Coast @ 2.7
GROUP H
Spain
Switzerland
Honduras
Chile
Spain, Spain, Spain. Switzerland are a very decent side, limited but organised, and Chile look very talented, but I cannot see how Spain can be stopped from winning this group. Honduras look like a poor side for me, and will almost definitely finish bottom. It is between Chile and Switerland for second place, and I take Chile. They may not beat Switzerland, but I think Spain will beat the lumbering Switzerland by more than they will beat Chile, so I can see Chile going through on goal difference.
Recommended bets
2pts Honduras to finish bottom @ 1.59,
1pt straight forecast Spain/Chile @ 2.3
I think the second best side is Argentina, but they are due to meet in the Semi finals all being well, and I can see the Spanish getting the better of them. Argentina will be fluent, and score a lot of goals. They were the best side in the tournament 4 years ago, until they were surprisingly knocked out by the home side. I think they look a better side this year, with Messi and Di Maria either side of Higuain, I can see them doing very well. People question the manager, but they have done well when it has counted, with a top win in Montevideo to seal the qualification against Uruguay, and a 1-0 win in Germany in a friendly earlier this year also shows they can defend when they need to. I’m already on the Argies at 9/1, but by backing them as a Plan B at 8.2, you are at least assured one team in the final if all goes well and Spain and Argentina meet in the semis.
I think Brazil might not do as well as expected this time round. They don’t look that fluent to me, and Im not sure how much depth they have either. They might well win again, but they don’t look as strong to me as in recent years. One team always gets an easy run to the latter stages, and this time round I can see that team being France. They could get South Korea and then England on the way to the semi finals, and I think they are worth a small investment at 23.0. If they get on a roll they could well be a tough match for Brazil in the semi finals.
Recommended bets
Spain 4 pts @ 5.1
Argentina 2 pts @ 8.2
France 1pt @ 23.0
TOP GOALSCORER Villa is the obvious choice, and Spain could well score loads, but Villa is too short for me, and I have always thought Argentina look like a team that is full of goals. If, as seems likely, Maradona goes with a 4-3-3 employing Higuain up top with Di Maria and Messi out wide, then Higuain will look huge at 26.0. Im also on at 25/1 ew with Will Hill. The value is already gone on Messi (now 12.0) but I have backed the up and coming Benfica youngster Di Maria, rumoured to be signing for Real Madrid in a £40m move this week, at 1000.0. and 150 for top 4. I have also had small investments in a couple of Spain’s wide men, in Navas at 920 average and 120 top 4 and Silva at 700 average and 100 top 4.
Recommended bets
2pts Higuain @ 26
.5 pts Di Maria @ 1000, .5pts top 4 @ 150
.5 pts Navas @ 920, .5pts top 4 @ 120
.5pts Silva @ 700, .5pts top 4 @ 100
OTHER BETS
Final Referee – Frank de Bleekere 1pt @ 7.2
Final Four lay England @ 2.46
Nominate Finalists France and Spain @ 65
England Team Top Goalscorer Aaron Lennon @ 38
GROUP A
France
Mexico
South Africa
Uruguay
At first sight, this looks like mission impossible for the hosts - the finalists from 2006, a quality and slick outfit from Central America in Mexico, and a decent side from South America in Uruguay. But South Africa have a lot of things going for them - they are very hard to beat now under Carlos Alberto Perreira, and they have home advantage, with thousands of screaming fans blowing horns behind them. They are unbeaten in 15 matches, and although none of those games have been against top quality opposition, they are well organised and will have their confidence boosted. France’s form has been dreadful, although I would be wary of laying them as I can see them surprising people and actually doing OK. Although both Mexico and Uruguay will have their supporters, and they both have their star players, neither have a reputation for grinding out results when it really matters, and it is quite possible either or both of these will bottle it against a hard working home side so I can see the South Africans getting through the group.
Recommended bet
2pt - South Africa to qualify @ 2.9
GROUP B
Argentina
Nigeria
Greece
South Korea
Argentina looked nailed on to win group B, but are a prohibitive 1/2 to do so. With their striking power, I can see them going a long way in the tournament and they could get a few goals to get them going in the group stages. So, in many ways we are interested in who will progress with them, and my money is on South Korea. Nigeria have flattered to deceive for a long time, and although they should get plenty of support as Africa’s most populous nation, and they have plenty of decent players, they haven’t really gelled as a team for a long time. Greece, as a solid team with a decent goalscorer in Gekas, have many of the ingredients for success, but look like quite a slow side, and I wonder whether that could be their achillles heel in a group full of pace. South Korea looked like a decent side against Spain recently, and if they can finish some of the many chances they are bound to create, they could trouble all the sides in this group, and go further than many will expect.
Recommended bet
1pt – straight forecast Argentina/South Korea @ 6
GROUP C
England
Slovenia
USA
Algeria
Fabio Capello would never display any sort of disrespect for any opponent, but secretly he must have been delighted with the group they got, with practically the easiest sides from the Africa/South America pot AND the rest of Europe pot. England should qualify, and should win the group, although they will inevitably make harder work of it than they need to. But England are ludicrously short to win the group and to qualify, so the best bets lie elsewhere in Group C. USA are second favourites from the group, and look like a decent side. They did well in the Confederations Cup, giving Brazil a shock in the final, and they wont be intimidated by anyone. Algeria look like a very skilful side, and in Ziani, Belhadj and Bougherra have players with the ability to set the tournament alight. You have to question the temperament of Algeria though, and I think they are rightly outsiders. I think the surprise side in group C could be Slovenia. They are a tight knit outfit with a lot of ability, and I can see them pippin the Americans for second place in the group. I think their striker Novakovic, could be one of the stars of the tournament.
Recommended bet
1pt – Slovenia to qualify @ 3.1
GROUP D
Germany
Serbia
Ghana
Australia
For me, this is the most even of the groups and any one of three teams could win the group. I think Australia are rightly the outsiders, as they don’t seem to have replaced Viduka, and lack any real stars once Cahill is quietened. Germany are seen as favourites, but they don’t seem to be as well organised or have as many winners as usual. Yes, we said that 4 years ago, but they were at home then, and radically overperformed. This year they will face a tough challenge to get anywhere near as far, and I don’t think they should be odds on to win this group. Serbia have loads of talent all over the pitch and could do anything on their day, and Ghana, despite the loss of Essien, will be a very good side as well. Germany may well get through the group stages, but I think a lay of them to win the group is the way forward here.
Recommended bet 1pt – lay Germany to win the group @ 1.95
GROUP E
Holland
Denmark
Cameroon
Japan
Holland, with or without Robben, should have easily enough to get through this group, and could go a long way in the tournament. Their issue is, like England, they have a horrible record in penalty shootouts, and their defence may not stand up against the top sides in the world in the later stages, but I expect to shine in the first half of the World Cup. Their group doesn’t look the hardest either, as Denmark are filled with not-quite-top-level and aging players, Cameroon are in one of their less mighty guises, and Japan don’t look like world beaters either. Holland are short to win the group at 1.6, so the bet for me is to combine them with Cameroon in a forecast. Cameroon are pacy, strong, and under Paul Le Guen, well organised to boot. They have enough Premier League stars to do well, and If they can get Webo or Efoulou to bring the best out of Etoo they can thrive.
Recommended bet
1pt – straight forecast Holland/Cameroon @ 3.7
GROUP F
Italy
Paraguay
New Zealand
Slovakia
Italy should go through, and New Zealand should go out, but for me the crunch game in this group is Paraguay against Slovakia, and I think Slovakia will come out on top. Paraguay are a decent side, have plenty of Wworld Cup experience and some top players in Santa Cruz, Valdez and Cardozo, but they have flopped too many times in the past for me to have any confidence. Slovakia got here by rights, finishing top of a group that contained Czech Republic, Poland, Slovenia and Northern Ireland, they keep the ball really well and in Hamsik, Vittek and Sestak Slovakia have plenty of playmaking and attacking talent. Skrtel is probably their best known player, but I think by the end of the tournament they could have a few more playing in the top leagues.
Recommended bet
1pt – Slovakia to qualify @ 2.3
GROUP G
Brazil
Portugal
Ivory Coast
North Korea
Another 3 horse race, or a supposedly 2 horse race but I think Ivory Coast can surprise a few by getting out of the group. In my eyes we can rule out North Korea immediately, and Brazil and Portugal look very strong, but I can see weaknesses. Brazil don’t appear to have the out and out talent of previous years, and I can see them getting beaten at some stage, and Portugal have looked very poor so many times recently. They only just got past Bosnia in a play off, lost to some very ordinary teams in their group and could only draw 0-0 with Cape Verde Islands (everybody on the Island is very disappointed) last time out. Yes they have Ronaldo and Nani, but that’s about it, and for me they look a very ordinary team indeed. Ivory Coast will miss Drogba big style, but they still got a strong enough team to get into the knockout stages.
Recommended bet
1pt – Dual Forecast Brazil/Ivory Coast @ 2.7
GROUP H
Spain
Switzerland
Honduras
Chile
Spain, Spain, Spain. Switzerland are a very decent side, limited but organised, and Chile look very talented, but I cannot see how Spain can be stopped from winning this group. Honduras look like a poor side for me, and will almost definitely finish bottom. It is between Chile and Switerland for second place, and I take Chile. They may not beat Switzerland, but I think Spain will beat the lumbering Switzerland by more than they will beat Chile, so I can see Chile going through on goal difference.
Recommended bets
2pts Honduras to finish bottom @ 1.59,
1pt straight forecast Spain/Chile @ 2.3
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Replies: 123
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nice thread but how long did it take ya to write that
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i dont agree with one single bet (with the possible exception of spain to win).
your faith in france is baffling. i can not see any african team getting out of the group stages. apart from that........[smiley:crazy] |
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very informative mary, good luck with your world cup
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Don't agree with much of it either but its all about opinions and thats what make an event like this great. I've backed no African team to qualify. 10/1 is a decent price.
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Awesome Thread Marychain!! Really helped me improve my fantasy world cup squad
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Thanks for the read.
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good work m8
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Very well constructed and a good read. Like others I disagree with a lot of the bets but wish you every luck and thanks for the post
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MUG IMO.
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MUG IMO.
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nice write up Mary, an interesting read.
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Marychain is a grade A MUGG
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Iam goin to do the exact opposite to what u have said. I will back S.A to get out of their group tho.
Well written but bad analysis |
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mostly decent bets apart from france...also think ger will win group as serbia not that great, and of course brazil will prob win it again, theyre just better than everyone apart from maybe spain
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Don't agree with too much of it but well written and interesting thread. Do think that SA, Slovenia & Slovakia to qualify are all decent shouts. Lennon to be Eng's top scorer made me chuckle though, even at 38's.
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If the groups end the way you say, i'll be rich by the end of the group stages
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look c'mon lets not slag off mary for expressing a very informative opinion i don't agree with most of her tips but please lets not call her a mug until after the group games are over at least she has given an opinon. very well written mary and a great read cheers.
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having followed a lot of marychains tips through the domestic season im not gonna query to much of this but will have a little flutter on most of em
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thanks for the feedback guys, especially the polite ones. By the way Swillyboy, I'm not a girl.
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nice preview Marychain. Your picks arent mine. This WC should be interesting!!
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Also don`t agree with many of the tips. But nice to see something on the forum worth reading.
Gl. |
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If everyone agreed with all my picks, I wouldnt make very much money
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Agree that France are the value outright.
So you can cross them off your winners list. |
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Very good write up, although I disagree with most of it, can't see any of the African sides doing anything of note, and think none of them to make it out of the group is worth a tickle!
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Great read Marychain and as usual lots of well thought out suggestions although as a value bettor I'm surprised to see you tip Spain at 5.1. I too see them rightly as favourites but I'd want at least 6.0 and probably higher to justify a bet.
My two big bets so far are Slovakia and Slovenia (560/1 & 670/1 respectively) on the outright market with a view to trading. Both are decent outfits and the standard of the top teams (e.g. Germany, France, Brazil etc) leads me to believe that this is a fairly weak world cup (although hopefully still exciting) and my gut feeling is that for once a team considered an outsider i.e. over 30/1 could win the world cup! |
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Pesam, thanks mate. With regard to Spain, I just think they are outstanding. I cant see them being beaten by anyone in the other half of the draw at all, with the only potential banana skin being Argentina in the semis.
OK, anything can happen in a World Cup but I think the relief of finally winning that big tournament has finally allowed Spain to be what they've always threatened to be - by far the best team in the world. |
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Aye Spain have every chance but the doubt in the back of my mind is that their defence is not the strongest; Puyol and Pique are good but not brilliant, Arbeloa will probably be used as a left back which is not ideal and Ramos has off days. Added to this there is no Senna in central midfield to protect the defence and that duty now falls to Xabi Alonso and although we all know his undoubted talent I've never seen him as a Mascherano, Senna, Makelele type player.
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I have changed one of my bets. I have laid back the 2pts on Honduras to finish bottom at 1.59, and put 2 pts on Switzerland to finish bottom at 4.1. More to follow on this.
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Today I will be laying Mexico and Uruguay in a double at just over evens for 1pt.
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good start although would have loved that shot that hit the post at the end to go in
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Day 1 P/L = 1 point
Overall P/L = 1 point |
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good stuff MC1 - what the forum used to be about before it was taken over by the type of people who think Take Me Out has value as a television programme.
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Sorry, I don't understand how a Mexico/Uruguay double was paying just over evens. Can you explain what you mean?
Good job whatever the price, it won. |
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It was a double of South Africa or the draw/France or the draw. The odds were 2.04, so it worked out at evens after commission.
No bet in the South Korea match today, although a Korea win would obviously be best for my group B bet. Have got a bet lined up for the Argentina/Nigeria match, but not matched yet so will have it up here soon. |
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1 point on the half time/full time market, on draw/Argentina @ 4.6
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1 point sending off Nigeria v Argentina @ 4.0
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Heinze's goal came the wrong side of half time for me, and no sending off either for a 2 point loss.
day 2 P/L -2 points overall P/L -1 point |
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great write up MC. I'm interested in why you switched from Honduras to Switz for bottom of the group, tho.
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I think Honduras will beat Switzerland in the last game Plat; I'll explain further but I'm waiting to get some related bets matched.
My bet for England v USA is 1pt Over 1.5 first half goals @ 3.2 |