Pot 3 odds

No idea what the formula is but agree it doesn't appear to make sense ! a s.american team has to go in group a with s.africa, so at that point there will be 5 african and only 2 s.american sides left for england to face. Obviously depends which group eng are drawn in but if they come out before brazil and arg, say in group b or c the odds seems ridiculously wrong ?

Each African side has a 2/5 chance of drawing a S. Am seed = 40%, leaving 60% for the 5 European seeds, = 12% each.

Each S. American side has a 1/3 chance of drawing South Africa = 33.33%, leaving 66.67% for the 5 European seeds, = 13.33% each.

You are right to say that these odds could be affected in-running by which groups (B-H) the European seeds are drawn into.

Your confusion has arisen because England are indeed shorter to draw an African side rather than a South American one (3:2, or 4/6 v 6/4).

But there are 5 African sides to choose from and only 3 South Americans, so each African side ends up longer odds than each S. American one.

BUSHY!!

Long time no see!!!

Congrats on the Krypton Factor mate!

Thanks very much!

Have done a bit more work on this - the European seed in the "lowest" group (e.g. Group B) is the most likely of all the European sides to draw a South American side, assuming FIFA proceed as they have suggested they will. A big assumption.

chile, paraguay and urugauay cant be drawn in the same group as argies or brazil so his leaves them with 6 possible groups, which each s american team has a 1 in 6 chance of facing england

the 5 african teams cant be drawn against s africa, this leaves 7 possible grps for them to go into therefor giving htem a 1 in 7 chance of facing england

the s merican teams have a 1 in 6 chance of facing england
the s african teams have a 1 in 7 chance of facing england

THAT IS WHY S MERICAN TEAMS AREL OWER ODDS

1 in 6 is a better chance than 1 in 7

simples ;-)

Teams from Pot 4 is much stronger than Pot 2 and 3 and almost as strong as Pot 1
What a joke ;-)