World Cup
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Given that there are 3 S american teams and 5 african teams of which the first drawn S american team is guranteed in South Africans group and the first 2 drawn african teams go into Brazil and argentinas groups why are the odds shorter for England to land a south american team than an african team? one firm is offering 11/2 for all the South american team and 7s for all the African teams. Thought it should be the other way around. Whats the formula to calculate the odds?
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No idea what the formula is but agree it doesn't appear to make sense ! a s.american team has to go in group a with s.africa, so at that point there will be 5 african and only 2 s.american sides left for england to face. Obviously depends which group eng are drawn in but if they come out before brazil and arg, say in group b or c the odds seems ridiculously wrong ?
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Each African side has a 2/5 chance of drawing a S. Am seed = 40%, leaving 60% for the 5 European seeds, = 12% each.
Each S. American side has a 1/3 chance of drawing South Africa = 33.33%, leaving 66.67% for the 5 European seeds, = 13.33% each. You are right to say that these odds could be affected in-running by which groups (B-H) the European seeds are drawn into. |
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Your confusion has arisen because England are indeed shorter to draw an African side rather than a South American one (3:2, or 4/6 v 6/4).
But there are 5 African sides to choose from and only 3 South Americans, so each African side ends up longer odds than each S. American one. |
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BUSHY!!
Long time no see!!! Congrats on the Krypton Factor mate! |
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Thanks very much!
Have done a bit more work on this - the European seed in the "lowest" group (e.g. Group B) is the most likely of all the European sides to draw a South American side, assuming FIFA proceed as they have suggested they will. A big assumption. |
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chile, paraguay and urugauay cant be drawn in the same group as argies or brazil so his leaves them with 6 possible groups, which each s american team has a 1 in 6 chance of facing england
the 5 african teams cant be drawn against s africa, this leaves 7 possible grps for them to go into therefor giving htem a 1 in 7 chance of facing england the s merican teams have a 1 in 6 chance of facing england the s african teams have a 1 in 7 chance of facing england THAT IS WHY S MERICAN TEAMS AREL OWER ODDS 1 in 6 is a better chance than 1 in 7 simples ;-) |
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Teams from Pot 4 is much stronger than Pot 2 and 3 and almost as strong as Pot 1
What a joke ;-) |