Laying False Faves better chance of success in US racing?

How do you define a false favourite though? Not so long ago there was a chap posting on here declaring he was winnings $$$s by just backing all the favs in every race!

3 selections last night- 2 lays successful. Just watching for the time being. Anything statististically significent will be reported here.

Slicer, when you've got the recipe right and baked the cake be sure to save me a slice.

Definitely Mr Nifty. I will give a piece to all who enjoy & partake in the discussion on this thread. None of the plebs are interested enough to come over to this BetFair Backwater so we'll keep it to ourselves. Deciding the FFs is plain to see using this method, the work is already done for you. Just a matter of if it actually works. I'll have another look this evening.

Looking forward to seeing the results!

I'll be looking at races 1-7 at Delta Downs this evening.

R1 6 is the qualifier.

R1 6 lay successful. R2 9 is the qualifier.
btw I'm posting like this for 1 night only.

Slicer , to confirm ,are we talking about US tote favourites or Betfair favourites?

BF faves or a horse in very close proximity in the betting on BF eg race 2 where the 9 was 2.8  & the fave was 2.5. R2 9 successful lay. R! 6 was priced at 4. btw THERE WILL BE POSITIVELY NO AFTERTIMING as we only cheat ourselves. This might well be the Holy Grill of Horse Race Laying. We shall see. Again, I got nothing to do this evening so this posting in this way on this thread is for 1 night only!

R3 1 is the qualifier priced at 4.1.

Pity there's no place markets at Delta ,but the music is good in between races...

Just played More than a woman by the BeeGees from Saturday Night Fever!

WD

Even sweeter as the 1 was backed heavily before the off. R3 Lay successful.

No qualifier in race 4, so that leaves just 3 left this evening for potential lays.

R5 7 is a qualifier priced 2.54. If this gets beat I think I might really be on to something!

R5 successful lay. No qualifier in R6.

Well done, so far!

Thanks. Just R 7 to consider this evening.

Slicer, you're cooking on gas!

But I mustn't spoil the stake & spill the gravy!!

No qualifier in race 7 so that's it from me this evening. I won't be posting in this way again. 4 from 4 is quite good but at this early stage it could be luck & the results are not yet statistististically significant. I'll let you know how this progresses.
Thank you for your interest, good luck and good night.

4/4 fav lays is pretty good going in my book. Maybe Delta Downs is the graveyard of false favs. Well done Doctor.

Thanx. We shall see. Goodnight.

I'll be looking at Tampa & DD tonight. Probably about 15 races starting with 17.42 Tampa. Should give a better idea of success rate of The LFFUS Systim. Wouldn't it be a great end to a horribel year to come up with something to give we small band of US Racing Forumites a bit of hope for the New Year!

I'm gonna post the selections on hear tonight as there's not much else for me to do & the tv is dire. I'm not available tomorrow night & will only post the stats not the selections in the New Year. Let's see how long the lucky streak continues.

R1 Tampa no qualifier.

Tampa R2 4 is the qualifier. I'm a bit dubious about this one BUT the The LFFUS Systim gives it so it must be a selection.

Wins at 2.18. Not the end of the world to win at that price. So 0/1 this evening. btw The operation of this Systim is at level steaks so as not to spill the gravy if a losing run is encountered. Don't want to end up like Martin Gale, sleeping on a bench under newspaper in Hyde Park!

Tampa R3  2 is the selection at 3.6

T R3 Lay Successful

DD R1 No qualifier

Tampa R4 5 is the selection at 2.76

Wins at 2.76. 1/3 for the evening. Not so good. Down 1.94 points for the evening. No real damage & a little way to go.

DD R2 5 is the selection at 3.7.

DD R2 successful lay 2/4 down 0.94 points.

T R5 5 is the selection at 4.5

T R5 Lay successful. 3/5 RT this evening plus 0.16 points so far.

Due to lack of interest I'm stopping posting although I'll be continuing this Systim.
Good luck all- here endeth the monologue.

I'm interested. With three US cards running concurrently I'm just busy keeping up with the trading!

no chance.
you will get cleaned in a matter of days laying US favs.

you will make nothing laying favs in racing anywhere in the world.

Slicer - how long are u playing on the US racing?  I've been at it 15 years.  Mountaineer, Charles T & the New York tracks are the ones I concentrate on.  At Charles & the Mountain I've got a good system but it's to do with certain barns and the markets on here.  It's a true saying in 90% of the races that the betting doesn't lie.  Are you laying the favs as qualifiers due to their price??  As knox stated above laying the favs can be dangerous.

There have been plenty who have come and gone from the US racing.  A few names the gov - Jas1968 - Cork Langer (he is still on other forums) - Michael - Tod etc.

another fav given the run of the race in delta...
they dont even hide it in the US

the first fav at penn wins as if its the only horse in the race...

knox - when the dollars are down in the US very few lose.  There's usually one or two a night that you can see this pattern

I'm new to US racing. I'm relying on something I noticed  in assessing the previous performance of a fave or horse very close to the faves price in the betting. It is not on the price other than deciding who the fave is. A couple of races last night where there were no qualifiers for my Systim the fave won easily. If there is no qualifier it's because the short priced horses look like having a very good chance of success. The fastest way to the poor house is laying outsiders. The only hope of success is laying at short prices so no real damage is done. Even getting 2 wrong last night I finished a margin up. Won't get rich on that performance but it shows that its possible to keep losses to a minimum. Every year, everywhere in the world (as far as I know) faves win approx 33% of races. So it's a matter of what filter one uses. The one who gets it right will get rich. It's a matter of travelling in hope even if one does not arrive!

I remember years ago, a premier bookmaking company rep was interviewed. When I say premier, I mean they were the bookies that Laddies, Billies, Joke & all the others layed off their liabilities with. He said the only way to be successful was to get the faves beat. I think he knew what he was talking about. Its a matter of which faves one lays! Because of my age & health I don't stay up all night, so I'm only looking at the earlier races. If anything comes of this & it becomes worthwhile, I'll stop paper trading & actually back my judgement with money & stay up for the later races.

Thanks for your interest & good luck to all!

ps-I;m delighted that some who know what they're talking about have shown an interest & I look forward to further interesting debate.
Happy, Healthy & Safe New Year to all.

If winning was as simple as backing or laying all favs then we would all be doing it. Of course, in reality it's all about finding value and exploiting it accordingly. You gotta know when to hold'em and when to fold'em!

As with all favs, and any other priced horses, if you can consistently lay them below the betfair SP then you won't go far wrong and if you consistently lay them above the betfair SP then you will struggle.

I looked in on a few of races last night & saw a 75/1 winner & a couple of faves winning that would have won pulling a cart. Its a matter of which faves to lay, That's where the skill & judgement comes in. Going to continue for the time being to see if there is any statistitistically significent findings. All faves do not win, so it's a matter of finding the short priced losers.

Paper trading this evening, hoping for several qualifiers. !st qualifier in R1 Aqua. the fave has a good chance so its a horse close to the fave in price. If the lay selection wins this race, might as well give up now as the Systim states it just cannot win. Hoping to start using monet in a couple of days if paper trading appears to pay off to make it worthwhile. I've got extensive expensive tastes so winning pees is not on. Bolly thru a straw & fillette stake is what I@m accustomed to so the prophets will have to be worthwhile. I have broad shoulders & can take the flak but the reason I'm posting this on hear because I think the clowns give this forum a miss & informed discussion is welcome.

Aqua R1- I thought 4 was going to be the fave. The Lay selection is 3 at price 3.1. Been backed into fave at the moment so its a case of the money versus my method. We shall see!

Looks like someone knows something about the 3. Graph not encouraging for the lay.

Just goes to show as has been said by those in the know-FOLLOW THE MONEY IN THE US. The Systim got that so wrong in spite of some promising previous results that I shall retire sheepishly back whence I came. Good luck all!

Doesn't mean your system is dead. Just another element to add to it, ie ignore if significantly backed in price.

Slicer, I'd agree with jamee1, all cisterns have early teething problems and may need tweaking, just ask Armitage Shanks. You can't expect to be flush overnight.

Very good you two. Something I noticed a couple of races ago a drifter where the graph was a 45 degree angle. It lost. Just as the fave I would of layed trotted up having been backed off the boards, the drifter lost as convincingly. Thanks for your interest!

I don't have the evidence but I'd be fairly certain the weaker tracks(on turnover) would be more likely to have the more false favourites, e.g. the Louisiana tracks like Evangeline and Delta Downs(as you proved last week) versus the New York tracks.

Might be worth looking in to. Thanks

And for that reason the stronger track totes more closely reflect the Betfair markets, compared to some of the weaker ones where you can get wildly different favourites.

Yes the tracks in the States are more like little 'family' units, probably due to the sheer scale of distance. In the UK horses, riders, officials and trainers travel across multiple tracks whereas in the States they end up competing against each other for seasons on end at the same track. As a result each track has created its own microenvironment which can vary significantly to another.

Excellent points you've made Mr Nifty & Mr 1. You obviously know your stuff. I just hope it's reflected in you profit/loss account!

The 7, Fav here at Aqueduct R4, I couldn't have on form but has been very well backed so I personally wouldn't be laying it.

Wasn't a qualifier anyway. Will keep an eye on things.

Tampa R4 7 is a qualifier though. Graph looks a bit flat.

BSP 2.35. Lay successful. There is definitely something in it but needs a bit of improvement

Aqueduct a very tricky track to get right. Even when you think you've found the winner it isn't always cut and dry. The #3 in race 5 there looked like it had the race sewn up and traded to a low of 1.03 only to fail to close the door on the #1 Lost in Rome which traded at 1000 inplay. The market makers / inplay market makers certainly thought the #3 was about to get the win

Slicer - it's good that we have some discussion on the US forum again.  I hope your system is doing OK.

Many thanks. I'm quiet because I'm still trying to analyse the results. I've taken the good advice proferred by yous in the know because I'll be putting monet down in a couple of days time, so I got to get it right. Beginning to identify the faves & fancied horses who will win in spite of my own ratings. Good luck all!

Tampa R2 graph of 6 interesting!

Well, it's been quite an evening. Decided to start using my soft earned cash. I took the good bits from my systim, combined it with looking at the betting graphs & adding the advice you've kindly provided on here. I've invested in 12 races and won £101.50. No aftertiming. Thanks for your assistance. But it does go to show that it's extremely unlikely that an inflexible Systim engraved in concrete will succeed. Good luck all.

Well done! What was the average stake/ROI%?

Total staked £238. But a couple of heavy liabilities e.g. 1 race I layed £11 at odds of 29, 1 race £11 at 12 & 1 race £11 at 8. Not something I'd usually do, but all things pointed to great chances of success so I acted accordingly. These were as a result of taking into account the betting graphs.It was a combination of mainly laying and a couple of dutching backing to win fave & 2nd fave. Most odds for laying were between 2 & 3. I won't keep posting in detail but will update occasionally & discuss things if there's any interest. At least you guys seem to know what you're doing. Good luck.

TP Race 4 look at the graphs of 1 & 2!!!

And look at the result!!!!!

Just goes to show that very few know anything!!!

Careful of Turf Paradise. They will probably be all over the place for the first few weeks of the season. They "permanently" closed down a year ago and likely have a significantly new set-up.

Loving these Turf Paradise races tonight, the markets going haywire

race 7 there in particular, where the #2 was backed into 1.02 despite it never being in the top 4. also the #4 which managed 3rd into 1.14 and the #10 which nearly won into 1.1x too. the #11 which went off at 75 won and traded pennies all the way up to 750

75/1 winner earlier on. No rhyme or reason to too many of these results. Made a small profit this evening, but must refine more before getting too involved!

Turf Paradise last night as quoted above was very interesting.  The shipper from California in Race 6 Sorriso looked a cert and won like it.  The 2.3 and bigger on here was a tremendous price for it.  Shippers from California have a decent record at the Paradise

Looked at the first 3 races. Another 74/1 winner. A lot of these results  seem to be very unpredictable, more so than UK racing. Giving it a miss for the time being. Good luck all!

no problems for fav backers this evening
laying us favs will clean any layer

3 in a row favs turf p
3 in a row favs delta
layers graveyard is US racing

lots of favs tonight knoxville, but not so many last night. it's swings and roundabouts, but definitely easier to find easy favourite winners in US racing

Another Californian shipper well fancied wins easy in Race 7 at the Paradise

Fortunately I made a small profit from all of this, but it's very clear that it's best left to you in the know.  Good luck all!

Slicer,if you look at the results from the top grade tracks , particularly in New York, eg Aqueduct, Belmont, you will
rarely see big outsiders obliging.
The gaff tracks which you are quoting, are the same as Chelmsford,Newcastle over here, where anything goes.

Thanks Mike. I've made some adjustments, added a filter & am making small profits at the moment. There is no "One size fits all" method for selections.