U.S. Horse Racing
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AQU R1
May as well post my tip now.
Backed 1 at 4.3. Think this discovers its best distance today, cutting back in trip 1/2f to 1m. Has disappointed the market as a losing 2.35 - 3.55 favourite in all of its 4 races, but I think today may well be its day.
2 could improve second time out, but trainer Carlos Martin does not have a great record with second time starters and I don't think this copes well with the step up in trip.
3 has proven it can do the distance and is making a small class drop and is certainly a threat, but fitness is a slight issue.
5 may improve on the step up in trip. Trainer Rodrigo Ubillo has surprised the market with a step up in trip before, but the step up in class is significant.
May as well post my tip now.
Backed 1 at 4.3. Think this discovers its best distance today, cutting back in trip 1/2f to 1m. Has disappointed the market as a losing 2.35 - 3.55 favourite in all of its 4 races, but I think today may well be its day.
2 could improve second time out, but trainer Carlos Martin does not have a great record with second time starters and I don't think this copes well with the step up in trip.
3 has proven it can do the distance and is making a small class drop and is certainly a threat, but fitness is a slight issue.
5 may improve on the step up in trip. Trainer Rodrigo Ubillo has surprised the market with a step up in trip before, but the step up in class is significant.
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One more comment about AQU R1. I think 1 would suit a fast pace and I'm worried the pace is going to be too slow today. Perhaps 2 could be the pace setter, but then the best strategy for the 2 would probably be to get an early lead and then try to keep the lead going as slowly as possible for the first 6/7 furlongs.
AQU R1
Okay, new bet.
3 at 3.5. Expect this to stalk the 2 and pass it on the turn.
Okay, new bet.
3 at 3.5. Expect this to stalk the 2 and pass it on the turn.
I will also lay 4 at sub 10.0. It's had enough chances on the dirt and has always been very disappointing.
I'm convinced 3 would won that on a fast track. The slop suited the 2 to a tee. Enjoyed that race. It made sense.
TAM R1
2 at 3.0. 6 should get the lead easily here and is certainly a wire to wire threat, but expect it run out of juice on the stretch. If the 2's fit, which I suspect it is, think it's difficult to beat.
2 at 3.0. 6 should get the lead easily here and is certainly a wire to wire threat, but expect it run out of juice on the stretch. If the 2's fit, which I suspect it is, think it's difficult to beat.
TAM R1
6-2-1
Another race that makes sense. No profit, but it made sense, which is encouraging.
6-2-1
Another race that makes sense. No profit, but it made sense, which is encouraging.
Aqu
betting
#1 More Than Rainbows
#5 Magsamelia
both @ 10/1 +
betting
#1 More Than Rainbows
#5 Magsamelia
both @ 10/1 +
AQU R2
5 at 10.5. Shown it can run on softer ground and can do longer distances which may give it the edge on the slop.
5 at 10.5. Shown it can run on softer ground and can do longer distances which may give it the edge on the slop.
AQU
3 at 3.2. Think this should be favourite on the slop.
3 at 3.2. Think this should be favourite on the slop.
AQU *CORRECTION*
4 at 3.2. Think this should be favourite on the slop.
4 at 3.2. Think this should be favourite on the slop.
Bad luck Rowan. I knew you were in trouble when Enzo put it up as the selection!
AQU
3 at 2.7. Think this is well suited to the slop. Great wire to wire chance.
3 at 2.7. Think this is well suited to the slop. Great wire to wire chance.
lol . Clearly I didn't know anything. I thought there was a chance it could produce a shock if it rekindled its New York form. The barn change could have done the trick.
worth a shot, they come in every now and again @ big prices ...... maybe next time
AQU
Also, 6 to finish top 3 at 1.5.
and 3 to finish top 3 at 1.2.
Also, 6 to finish top 3 at 1.5.
and 3 to finish top 3 at 1.2.
my turn now lol
trying me luck
s bet #9 It Matters @ 18.0
trying me luck
s bet #9 It Matters @ 18.0
The question is, was the probability of it winning greater than 1 in 38? A lot of people would say "no". It ran abysmally in its last 5 races or so, so maybe I was asking for too much, but the barn change and recent workout were the key for me.
The barn change allied to a massively-improved recent work can be a very strong angle when the price is big enough.
yep i agree. If everyone had the same view point in every race most winners would be odds on, you only get the big price winners if you go against everyone else.
TAM
7 at win at 7.4 and to place at 2.5.
Really fancy this to improve second time back off layoff.
7 at win at 7.4 and to place at 2.5.
Really fancy this to improve second time back off layoff.
Cooee
10 Jan 16 18:52
Joined: 13 Oct 11
| Topic/replies: 3,012 | Blogger: Cooee's blog
The barn change allied to a massively-improved recent work can be a very strong angle when the price is big enough.
Totally agree!
10 Jan 16 18:52
Joined: 13 Oct 11
| Topic/replies: 3,012 | Blogger: Cooee's blog
The barn change allied to a massively-improved recent work can be a very strong angle when the price is big enough.
Totally agree!
Tampa
gone with #8 Starship Virtue @ 14.0+
watching #1 Smoke N the Bottle
gone with #8 Starship Virtue @ 14.0+
watching #1 Smoke N the Bottle
TAM
Backed 7 again at 12.0.
Looked very poor on return from layoff, and I could well be asking for too much, but the fact it hasn't dropped in class is key here I believe.
Backed 7 again at 12.0.
Looked very poor on return from layoff, and I could well be asking for too much, but the fact it hasn't dropped in class is key here I believe.
AQU
4 at 8.4. Worried this might not cope well with the slop, but 8.4 is reasonable.
8 at 6.0.
Slop often favours the pace horses, but this will be a fiercely contested pace that could suit 4 and 8 from off the pace.
4 at 8.4. Worried this might not cope well with the slop, but 8.4 is reasonable.
8 at 6.0.
Slop often favours the pace horses, but this will be a fiercely contested pace that could suit 4 and 8 from off the pace.
AQU
Also, 2 at 22.0. May excel on the slop. Has too much pace to be this price IMO.
Also, 2 at 22.0. May excel on the slop. Has too much pace to be this price IMO.
Was the 3's fall really bad Slip? I missed it because I'm watching on a dodgy stream. Hope it wasn't fatal and the 3 recovers.
race 1 sunland he 7 horse is a even money at the track and a 3/1 shot on exchange
Tampa
betting #6 Starship Bellagio
watching #4 Livingston's Lady
betting #6 Starship Bellagio
watching #4 Livingston's Lady
at last a winner
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