U.S. Horse Racing
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AQU R1
May as well post my tip now.
Backed 1 at 4.3. Think this discovers its best distance today, cutting back in trip 1/2f to 1m. Has disappointed the market as a losing 2.35 - 3.55 favourite in all of its 4 races, but I think today may well be its day.
2 could improve second time out, but trainer Carlos Martin does not have a great record with second time starters and I don't think this copes well with the step up in trip.
3 has proven it can do the distance and is making a small class drop and is certainly a threat, but fitness is a slight issue.
5 may improve on the step up in trip. Trainer Rodrigo Ubillo has surprised the market with a step up in trip before, but the step up in class is significant.
May as well post my tip now.
Backed 1 at 4.3. Think this discovers its best distance today, cutting back in trip 1/2f to 1m. Has disappointed the market as a losing 2.35 - 3.55 favourite in all of its 4 races, but I think today may well be its day.
2 could improve second time out, but trainer Carlos Martin does not have a great record with second time starters and I don't think this copes well with the step up in trip.
3 has proven it can do the distance and is making a small class drop and is certainly a threat, but fitness is a slight issue.
5 may improve on the step up in trip. Trainer Rodrigo Ubillo has surprised the market with a step up in trip before, but the step up in class is significant.
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One more comment about AQU R1. I think 1 would suit a fast pace and I'm worried the pace is going to be too slow today. Perhaps 2 could be the pace setter, but then the best strategy for the 2 would probably be to get an early lead and then try to keep the lead going as slowly as possible for the first 6/7 furlongs.
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1's been scratched FFS. Was looking forward to this.
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AQU R1
Okay, new bet. 3 at 3.5. Expect this to stalk the 2 and pass it on the turn. |
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I will also lay 4 at sub 10.0. It's had enough chances on the dirt and has always been very disappointing.
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I'm convinced 3 would won that on a fast track. The slop suited the 2 to a tee. Enjoyed that race. It made sense.
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TAM R1
2 at 3.0. 6 should get the lead easily here and is certainly a wire to wire threat, but expect it run out of juice on the stretch. If the 2's fit, which I suspect it is, think it's difficult to beat. |
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Also backed 2 to finish top 3 at 1.4.
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TAM R1
6-2-1 Another race that makes sense. No profit, but it made sense, which is encouraging. |
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Aqu
betting #1 More Than Rainbows #5 Magsamelia both @ 10/1 + |
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AQU R2
5 at 10.5. Shown it can run on softer ground and can do longer distances which may give it the edge on the slop. |
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TAM
6 at 3.4. |
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Tampa
betting #4 Sixspeedoverdrive |
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TAM
Also, I think 5 and 8 are good value at 8.0+ |
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wd rowan |
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AQU
3 at 3.2. Think this should be favourite on the slop. |
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Thanks BSmith.
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AQU *CORRECTION*
4 at 3.2. Think this should be favourite on the slop. |
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AQU
Also, 4 to finish top 3 at 1.2. |
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Aqu
trying #6 Sustainable @ 9.0+ |
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Bad luck Rowan. I knew you were in trouble when Enzo put it up as the selection!
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haha . Thanks Cooee. :)
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TAM
6 at 2.02. |
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TAM
4 to finish top 3 at 5.2. |
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Last for me
Tampa betting #5 Bosco Bob's Baby @ 8.0+ |
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TAM
Also, 4 to win at 38.0. |
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do u know something Rowan ?! lol
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AQU
3 at 2.7. Think this is well suited to the slop. Great wire to wire chance. |
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lol . Clearly I didn't know anything. I thought there was a chance it could produce a shock if it rekindled its New York form. The barn change could have done the trick.
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worth a shot, they come in every now and again @ big prices ...... maybe next time
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AQU
Also, 6 to finish top 3 at 1.5. and 3 to finish top 3 at 1.2. |
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my turn now lol
trying me luck s bet #9 It Matters @ 18.0 |
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The question is, was the probability of it winning greater than 1 in 38? A lot of people would say "no". It ran abysmally in its last 5 races or so, so maybe I was asking for too much, but the barn change and recent workout were the key for me.
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The barn change allied to a massively-improved recent work can be a very strong angle when the price is big enough.
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what happened down the home straight ?
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That looked very bad. Something just went on the fave.
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shocking luck that
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