Wednesday USA Horse Racing

trainers run some of their horses all year a certain way then change the run style to win one race. If you read the form in great detail you might spot the horses but you have to draw the line sometimes at how much research you do.

Let's hope we both win Risky. Come on 2.

gl guys
see you next year

yes i actually admire the depth you go into on this, i'm under no illusion that my approach is very casual in comparison, i look more at the prices near the off and think about the probability and just try to nick a few quid at a time. bar the odd occasion when the bank grows and i get carried away..

That's interesting BSmith. If you know a way of predicting when a horse's form is likely ot change, let me know.

lol, thats all down to the trainers and tactics

You seem to know what you're doing though Risky. Maybe you can read form quickly. What formcards do you use?

TAM

9 at 4.3. Ben Colebrook has an excellent record moving horses from turf to dirt.

yeah i'm understating it but everyone has things they look out for and i think it's easier to find a reason why something won't win than will. i use brisnet now, used to use drf but it's the same thing really. more detail = more cost and it is easy to over analyse and talk oneself out of something. i do best when i just concentrate on a couple of tracks and don't get greedy..

also don't underestimate the tote prices at the track, they show where the local money is going, near the off and you need that in conjunction with the exchange prices and the racecards - i think so anyway.

I use DRF. Never tried Brisnet. I see what you mean about it being easier laying than backing, but I suppose you have to assess every horse's chances in order to accurately gauge the probability of a horse losing. It is interesting how people can take completely different angles on races. I've explored many over the years and I'd like to think I've learnt to give each angle appropriate weighting, but I'm sure it's something I'll continue to debate till the end of time!

I have to admit, I've never let a tote price influence my decision.

i think you look at it one way or the other, as backer you identify some that could win, then look for the biggest price in comparison to how likely you think it is to win. when laying it's the reverse but i think you approach the prices v form differently.

the tote is where the locals are putting their money. exchange betting is not legal there. 'violin cases of money' is my favourite expression, i think that was used to describe monmouth, so when i am really concentrating, i do watch how those prices are changing near the off as well as on here.

TUP

9 at 4.0. Fancy this to make the transition to dirt. Santa Anita workouts are encouraging. Should improve second time out off layoff.

I know it's where the locals are putting their money and I do observe the tote prices, but I tend to think that if the locals have a considerable amount of inside info then I shouldn't really be involved in the first place. I believe I've got an edge and the name of the game is to beat the market, so I don't allow the market to influence my own pricing. People would say I'm naive though.

you're not naive, it's all a judgement based on what info's there. and you are finding a good number of winners - from what i see anyway

HAW

3 at 25.0. Could improve a lot second time out. Encouraging recent workout.

HAW

2 at 10.0. Poor last time out, but has a chance if can reproduce debut form.

laid 1, haw is definitely a track where i double check the tote is not against me and i like the fact it is 6 on there as well!

Yeah, I think I've got the edge, so I try not to let the tote influence me so much. The tote probably influences the Betfair prices, so it just seems a bit paradoxical using the market's own pricing to gauge your own pricing to beat the market.

The show "Luck" is a must watch for you guys. (Dustin Hoffman )

Well done laying the 1. Nearly a fairly big win for me with the 2.

oh i've heard of that one, i have a few i could recommend you all as well, lol

TAM

6 at 3.5.

Just looked that series up on Wikipedia Henry. Deffo need to watch that.

wd, missed tam, easily distracted..

Cheers mate.

Are you going to read the next races at TUP and HAW?

Not sure what to make of the class drop of the 1 in the next at TUP.

i've laid the 2 here, could go against me but that was my first instinct, gl

TUP

2 at 3.35.

Was a very tough decision to make, but I've decided that the 1 has dropped in class because it's deteriorated. Disappointed the market last time out.

their prices are shifting..

Gl Risky. 1 might kill the field here.

HAW

9 at 2.68. Think it will relish the mud. Wire to wire possibility.

the 1 has dropped in class because it's deteriorated.

Very good call Rowan86

yeah will lay the 10 i think

Thanks Henry. It was a tough one. If 1 reproduced its best form, it would probably have won, but when you see a significant drop in claiming price after a disappointing performance, it's often indicative of deterioration.

BOOOOM

wd at haw

Glad your lay came in Risky.

Cheers mate. Did you lay the 10?

10 nowhere to be seen. Good call if you layed it.

yes i did

tried to top up the lay but suspended before i could

Shame about the top up, but very clear-cut win for you.

Okay. Next at Turf Paradise!

tup 7, the 11 has to be a terrible draw doesn't it? i'm laying that at 3.4 and hoping it doesn't shorten on the tote where it is 3/1, gl

TUP

7 at 6.4. Expect this to return to form today.

TUP

3 at 30.0. Has a chance if reproduces old form.

ah, reassured by you not backing my lay.. good times

It's one of the worst draws yes, but not as bad as 9 and 10.

Good barn change for the 11, but think market is overreacting to that.

though now 6/5 tote wise not good

Well done with the lay.

My 7 was close, and I really thought 3 was going to do it at one point!

needn't have worried

you are picking some very good ones, that was unlucky

I think the market definitely overreacted to the barn change of the 11.

Cheers mate.

TUP

3 at 7.8. Not sure of the success rate of Golden Gate shippers at Turf Paradise, but 3 is dropping in class and has some early pace. Might take well to the dirt at TUP.

TUP

8 at 3.85. This is overpriced IMO. Went close over 5f at the course from a wide draw last time out. Think it could have done with an extra 1/2f as well.

at tup, i've laid the 11 and the 12, gl

I'll do the same. They look like donkeys.

Good luck.

thanks you too

BOOOOM

are you eyeing up delta? i know i shouldn't but it is there..

I am, yes. :) I've got to admit, I like the donkey races! Quite often good value there, although you can some crazy results.

Did you notice I backed / tipped the winning 3 at TUP?

i didn't sorry, i thought you were on the 8, i did think that was a bit too big of a boom for a lay of donkeys, albeit a v rare double lay wd on the 3!

haha. Thanks. I backed the 8 and the 3 and layed the ones you layed.

DED R1

8 at 4.5. Think  this benefits from the cutback in trip. Seemed to find form last time out.

laid the 4, back to peanut stakes as don't want to undo my reasonably good work over last 2 days with this, gl

Well done. Disappointed with that. I was torn between the 8 and the 6.

Need to nail the next one!

you got close and if i were backing, a  result like that would make me tempted to do the place bets e/w exactas etc. but in the end you have to stick to what you are best at and that is just the win market i think. it is in my case anyway

DED R2

7 at 3.9. Brett Brinkman has a good record with 6 month layoffs.

Sometimes the win is good value, but the place is poor value and vice versa, but you're right that I should look at the place market more often.

don't get me wrong, the way i think you read races is you are finding value winners and you would then lose value in the long term by going for the places but it must be tempting in a result like that. same as when 1 of my lays comes last and i know i could have place laid it for minimal outlay but it is not as simple as that

delta i agree with you think the prices on the 7 and 8 will switch as it gets nearer the off. laying the 8, gl

Yeah, exactly. I see what you mean about the place market. I think it would eat into my profits if I went e/w with every win bet, but certainly I think I should look at it more and I have been tempted before yes. Glad you agree with me about the 7 at DEL.

i'm the same, some of my lays would be 1.1 or lower in the place market and get nowhere, so i should look at it but tend not to. new years resolution..? probably not, lol

Phew. Think the 7 would have won by at least a length if it hadn't been bumped at the start and forced to move wide on the straight.

wd you got the 7 at delta

Good call. 8 was nowhere.

haha yeah, good new year's resolution.

DED R3

3 at 2.8.
8 at 12.0.

ok, 1 is worth a small lay at sub 3.0 on here, this would be an example of you pointing me in the right direction (hopefuly) lol

haha. I was just thinking to myself, 1 is a good lay at sub 3.0. Fingers crossed. Really hope it loses.

1 disappointed the market as a 2.5 favourite last time out.

1 doesn't have much early pace either.

Get in. :)

thank you

glad I helped.

I think Delta Downs is a bit of a goldmine actually. A bit like Penn.

DED R4

4 at 1.5 to finish top 3. Hoping it improves stepping up in trip.

6 at 50.0. Wire to wire.

laid the 2, gl

Another comfortable lay. Nice one.

thanks, i'm just having a lucky 2 days, reality will bite in the new year but i might as well fell pleased with myself while the moment lasts

ded r5 will be my last today, laid the 1, gl and gn. i might be back on here on fri / sat, not sure at the moment

Sorry I disappeared without saying anything.

haha I'm sure you'll win over time, but I think the key is to not overstake when you're on a bad run. Then the good runs should outweigh the bad ones. Stating the obvious, I know. I'm might be back on here on Sat.

Laying can be pretty erratic. Inevitably you're going to have bad nights, and a few 3.0-5.0 shots going in can wipe out many days (weeks even) of hard work. Annoying but unavoidable. Laying the place markets could offer greater consistency, but there's not really enough money in the place markets to allow sensible value laying of anything except the first or second favourite.  That could get worse still in the next couple of weeks with the exodus of the Canadians...