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11 Nov 15 12:59
Date Joined: 12 May 01
| Topic/replies: 6,051 | Blogger: bongo's blog
Hargreaves Lansdowne's website helpfully displays a 'broker forecasts' temperature bar for stocks.
If it's in the Red half - sell
If it's in the Blue half - the brokers on balance say buy

In theory if everything is perfectly priced, and there's no inflation, half of all stocks should be rated as 'sell' by the balance of broker opinion.

But they're not - only 13 of the FTSE 100 are rated as 'sell'. Here they are, with current prices today
FTSE 100 - 6302
TSCO - 172.65
SBRY - 262.30
INTU - 321.80
KGF - 355.65
SL. - 413.55
AAL - 494
ANTO - 500.75
RR. - 684.25
CCH - 1540
ADM - 1636
PSN - 1844.50
SVT - 2149
ULVR - 2839.50

All other stocks in the FTSE 100 are rated on balance as 'buy' by the broker recommending community ( or in a couple of cases 'neutral' ).

I'll check this lot in about 6 months time, and see if they outperformed the index as a whole.
Pause Switch to Standard View Testing the theory that 'broker...
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Report pipedreamer November 11, 2015 2:23 PM GMT
Amen to that!!!,i had circular telling me to buy Marconi at 400!!!,with all the shares out there you'd think that bad shares could be avoided.Ive kept old magazines and gone back to them 10 years later,didn't make good reading.The way to go is to do it all yourself,research is everything,do't fall into the trap of analysing other peoples analysis.
People say that they know something when in fact its something that they have read,or heard, and not something that they themselves have verified.
I see a sell for Tesco there,well,they have been very weak,although i don't research  all short term movements,i would have thought that Tesco would rally sometime soon.
The rally could well be poor,not enough to risk a punt.A wait and see attitude for them at the mo,they're heading down anyway,why risk trying to make money on a smallish rally.
Report treetop November 11, 2015 8:43 PM GMT
I reckon it would pay to sell most of them over the hsort term. The release is often accompanied by an early M.Maker rise that limits PI's from getting involved, the froth has already gone. Usually they then settle as interest goes off and slip back. Interesting to see how your concept develops.
Report Dr Crippen November 12, 2015 10:26 AM GMT
The thing to remember is that it's the actual buying of shares that sends the prices up, and the selling of them that sends the prices down.
People's opinions of the companies in question count for nothing in the face of that.

If the right people aren't buying the shares in the required volumes then the price will not go up.
The same when they sell, regardless of what the general opinion is, the market is doomed when they decide it's time to take profits.

I don't think these people invest through the H & L website, or are influenced by brokers best guesses - do you?
Report bongo December 11, 2015 7:22 PM GMT
One month in and the FTSE 100 is down 4.04% and the earlier basket of 13 duds as stated by brokers is down 9.58%.
It looks so far like at the extremes ( for these were the 13 worst picks ) them brokers know what they are talking about.

Will give it another 5 months though.
Report Dr Crippen December 15, 2015 12:16 PM GMT
All other stocks in the FTSE 100 are rated on balance as 'buy' by the broker recommending community

So they were correct about the basket containing the 13 duds, and wrong about the basket containing the 87 buys - so far.

That looks pretty dismal forecasting to me - so far.
Report akabula January 25, 2016 4:09 AM GMT
Report bongo February 17, 2016 10:50 PM GMT
Three months into the six month test.

Here are the current prices of the supposed stock market duds( close today )
FTSE 100 - 6302
TSCO - 186.9
SBRY - 261.4
INTU - 289.6
KGF - 340.3
SL. - 346.3
AAL - 467.9
ANTO - 478.3
RR. - 677.7
CCH - 1385.5
ADM - 1730.5
PSN - 1998.5
SVT - 2112
ULVR - 3047.2

Average change -1.8%

FTSE - 6030.3
Change in the FTSE -4.3%

It's turned round a bit in the last 2 months, and now the duds are ahead of the other 87, although you'd still be down of course.
Report jollyswagman February 24, 2016 7:23 PM GMT
so the ones the brokers recommended to sell are doing better than the ones they recommend to buy or hold? doubles all round Grin. there's plenty of time for change.

i've only just seen this. its a shame you didnt introduce a random element, say rolling a dice to decide whether or not to buy or sell.
Report jollyswagman February 24, 2016 7:24 PM GMT
^^^ as a comparison.
Report bongo March 13, 2016 8:41 PM GMT
About two months to go in this trial and the index and prices are listed as follows:
FTSE100    6139.79
TSCO    192.25
SBRY    273.25
INTU    304.6
KGF    342.35
SL.    364.45
AAL    515.55
ANTO    523.75
RR.    686.25
CCH    1395.5
ADM    1915.5
PSN    1990.5
SVT    2062.5
ULVR    3096.25

The FTSE 100 as a whole is down 2.57%.
And the 13 duds which were 'consensus sell' on broker ratings 4 months ago are up 1.88% on average.
Report NORTH BERWICK March 21, 2016 9:36 PM GMT
Interesting thread. I looked about 2 months ago and the two companies the brokers were most negative about were ROR and RR. I dont know the numbers but i think they have gone up and done fairly well since.
Report bongo May 11, 2016 8:58 PM BST
Final results are in after the 6 months monitoring period. The duds have fallen back a bit in the last 2 months but still finished ahead of the index as a whole:
FTSE100    6162.49
TSCO   159.37
SBRY   262.9
INTU   292.05
KGF    362.95
SL.    319.4 ( worst dud down 23% )
AAL    617.35 ( best dud up 25% )
ANTO   425.75
RR.    658.25
CCH    1401.5
ADM    1924
PSN    1956.5
SVT    2229.5
ULVR   3150.75

The FTSE 100 as a whole is down 2.21%.
And the 13 duds which were 'consensus sell' on broker ratings 6 months ago are down 0.14% on average. So a differential of 2.07%.

I was hoping for a differential of 5%+ then I could launch a Contra Broker High Risk Bongo Fund and attract investors, domicile in Jersey of course! Alas the differential is very small, so the case against following broker forecasts is a good one, but not brilliant.
Report jollyswagman May 13, 2016 7:40 PM BST
this is one of the most informative threads around bongo, well done.

imo the differential is large as the duds are down a little over 6% of what the main index is down by. i'm dividing one into the other, this makes the performance of the bongo fund look much, much better! i think you should market yourself as sixteen times better than brokers which sounds better than i only lose 6% of what brokers lose.

you should call your fund low risk if you want to attract cash. i am available to provide advice, or as some would call it a dice, to help make informed investment decisions!

i'm sure the brokers have received bonuses for their decisions regardless.

any chace of persuading you to update again in three and six months time?
Report bongo May 15, 2016 10:08 AM BST
Cheers for your thoughts jollyswagman:

I won't be updating the same list. The intention was to run the trial for 6 months, and if starting today some of the stocks are no longer 'consensus sell' including biggest faller Standard Life which is now a 'consensus buy'.

However if we did start from today, the 9 strongest 'consensus sell' stocks with current prices would be these:
AAL    578.25
ADN    265.35
ANTO    411.85
BRBY    1139.5
CCH    1349
FRES    1115.75
INTU    292.55
KGF    356.85
RR.    649.75
The FTSE 100 index is at 6138.5
So those 9 now make the Contra Broker Betfair High Risk Fund, which launches today and will run for 6 months.
It's got some miners, fund management companies, retail and a couple of other bits.

Retail is interesting as it's at risk from internet shopping and minimum wage increases. However quite a lot of data is coming through about the recent minimum wage rise to £7.20 hurting employment, there's already been U-turns by the Conservatives on other policies, so there's a slim but real chance they'll back down on future forced wage rises, or hand back the decision on setting the level to the previous non-political committee. So risky retail could be high reward.
Report bongo June 6, 2016 7:29 PM BST
Here's a choice extract from the HL review of the day:

"A YouGov poll found 45% in the UK wanted to leave the EU, while 41% were in favour of staying. An Observer/Opinium poll also found the Leave campaign ahead by 43% to 40%.

Sterling dropped 0.38% to $1.4463 at 1633 BST.

"While I would expect more downside if the polls continue to show the 'Leave' campaign gathering momentum, the pound is likely to be very volatile in both directions over the next couple of weeks," said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda.

"The polls are having a significant impact on the pound and some of them are sending very different messages. While support for 'Leave' is clearly growing, I still believe it will be a relatively comfortable win for 'Remain' on 23 June, albeit possibly not quite as comfortable as some will have hoped."

Analysts are full of schit in their general public announcements - might as well get a baby to spit a dummy at a bingo card.
Report bongo June 17, 2016 4:42 PM BST
From the Hargreaves Lansdowne website:
"Morgan Stanley said in an equity strategy note that its base case was for the UK to remain in the EU, a scenario that could push the FTSE 100 up by as much as 14% from current levels.
In the event of a vote to Remain, the bank expects the FTSE 100 to move up to a range of between 6,500 and 6,800

Based on Remain being around 65% likely when that was said by Morgan Stanley, then a Leave vote would take the FTSE 100 just below 5200.
A 21 year old economist called Theo Clifford with the occasional piece for the ASI has worked out a Leave vote ( technically a leave vote being a 100% shot on the betting markets ) would take the FTSE to around 5700.

Morgan Stanley versus Theo Clifford: it sounds a bit like Real Madrid versus Hartlepool United. But this is brokerage firms we are talking about, they are not trying to help or entertain you better than the smaller team can, they just want your money. I'm betting on the kid.
Report jollyswagman June 21, 2016 10:58 AM BST
there's room for the bongo newsletter me thinks, just wait for hl to publish their sh1t and suggest the investing public (mugs) do the opposite. riches await.
Report bongo June 24, 2016 9:12 PM BST
A poor performance on the EUref from the analysts at Oanda and Morgan Stanley.

Anyway, HSBC have put up this projection today:
"Following the referendum result, economists at HSBC cut their forecast for the rate of growth in UK gross domestic product in 2017 from 2.1% to 0.7%. They also revised their projection for CPI inflation next year to 4.0% from 1.7%."
It's simple and measurable. We'll know in about 20 months time if their old or their newer estimates were closer.
Report bongo August 12, 2016 8:12 PM BST
It's just about half way for the Contra Broker Betfair High Risk Fund. The elements of the fund stand as follows today:
AAL    856.9
ADN    328.35
ANTO   514
BRBY   1356.5
CCH    1721
FRES   1962
INTU   313
KGF    365.45
RR.    799
Average increase is 27.9%
The FTSE 100 stands at 6916.02, an increase of 12.7% on when this notional fund was launched.

Alas, the rules of the fund said it would run for 6 months so we cannot cash out yet and claim success, but things are promising at half-way.
Report fghhgeergt August 15, 2016 4:44 PM BST
interesting thread.....i like it
Report fghhgeergt August 15, 2016 4:44 PM BST
interesting thread.....i like it
Report xmoneyx August 27, 2016 1:20 PM BST
my 60/40 vanguard world index up 70% in 5 years

Dow 130% in 5 years
Report Callisto-moon August 28, 2016 11:57 PM BST
Is that pure luck?
Report xmoneyx September 5, 2016 5:11 PM BST
pound cost ave in

cash in 5 years from retirement
Report bongo November 15, 2016 8:34 PM GMT
It's been 6 months, so now the Contra Broker Betfair High Risk Fund is closed down. The elements of the fund stand as follows today:
AAL    1096.5
ADN    295.55
ANTO   671
BRBY   1413.5
CCH    1678.5
FRES   1404.5
INTU   268.2
KGF    363.25
RR.    754.25
Average increase is 27.6% since when this notional fund was launched.
The FTSE 100 stands at 6792.74, an increase of 10.7% over the same period.

That's an excellent result imv.
Starting in a few days will be the Contra Broker Betfair High Risk Fund II, drawn from the new biggest consensus sells as advised by brokers.

Meanwhile, this is a broker prediction made on Friday:
"S&P Global said a so-called "hard Brexit", in which Britain loses its access to the single market, is the most likely outcome of negotiations. S&P's chief sovereign credit officer Mortiz Kraemer said it is hard see how a hard Brexit can be avoided unless both sides become more flexible."
I think Mr Mortiz Kraemer has got his analysis completely wrong - based on contra broker theory remaining in the Single Market is the most likely outcome of negotiations, and the UK and the EU will get there by being less flexible, not more flexible in their negotiating. The EU will say "Do you want free movement of goods and services", the UK will say "Yes, but without free movement", the EU will say "Phuck off then, this is our red line", the UK will say "Ok, we'll accept free movement then, it's not that big a deal".
Time will tell if Mr Mortiz Kraemer is right.
Report Callisto-moon November 16, 2016 10:38 PM GMT
Can't believe this is a year old.
Good work.
Report bongo November 20, 2016 3:03 PM GMT
The Contra Broker Betfair High Risk Fund II launches today.
It comprises the following elements, being the eight biggest consensus sell stocks in the FTSE 100. Broker ratings are taken from the HL web-site
The elements of the fund today stand as follows:
ADM    1917
ANTO    666
IHG    3250
INTU    268.1
KGF    368.1
MRW    218.3
RBS    205.1
RR.    657.5
The FTSE index today stands at 3775.77

TO be honest, I don't like the look of a few of those, especially RBS who don't pay a dividend and Morrisons who sell too much cheap food. Value-added is where it's at, and to make a profit these days you have to sell food that is over-priced due to convenience, being served to you in a restaurant/cafe, or which is personalised. Imv, of course. On second thoughts Morrisons are trying in these areas.

The fund will run for 6 months.

For a stock to avoid, the biggest consensus buy on broker ratings is biotech firm Shire ( SHP ) which is priced at 4799. Sell this now if you know what is good for you.
Report Callisto-moon November 20, 2016 10:26 PM GMT
I had to sell my morrisons holding and then it jumped.
The thing I liked about them was the fact they were not heavily into home delivery.
Working in food retail I can't honestly see how long term it's a profitable venture.
Every delivery provides a profit level of £5. But there is no accounting for good will refunds on late deliveries or accidents in the vans.
Mrw now teamed with amazon to do deliveries.
Report bongo November 25, 2016 7:42 PM GMT
Barclays Research have just provided this analysis to their clients:
"Putting everything together, we now expect GDP to edge 0.7% next year (0.5% previously) and 1.5% in 2018 (unchanged). This remains overall cautious and in the lower range of the consensus (1.1% for next year +/- a standard deviation of 0.6pp) as we continue to believe that the actual triggering of Article 50 and the subsequent drop in sentiment will deliver some negativity in the first half of next year"

This is the first time I've seen a standard deviation in a forecast. I knew they use them, but not seen one quoted in a projection published for reading by the public who may not understand or even be bothered by this sort of thing. It's a bit like seeing Kevin Pullein saying he thinks Manchester United will finish the season on 68 points with a deviation of 5 points. It's rare to declare a range on your estimates like that.

I think Barclays Research are wrong - once it is clear that the UK is staying in the Single Market, growth will end up being at or just above the level of recent years. I'd go for 2.3% with a deviation of 0.6%.
Report xmoneyx December 30, 2016 9:54 PM GMT
visual history of the dow 1876 - 2016
Report bongo February 9, 2017 9:13 PM GMT
"MRW - The Best 21 Day Matured British Beef Chateaubriand steak (450g) will be available pre-packed from Morrisons Market Street butcher shelves UK-wide at £15 from Thursday 9th February in time for Valentine’s Day."
Diane and peppercorn sauces will be sold in the same section.

I can't help thinking the new management have done excellent work. You can't realistically shift more Calories to a population doing less physical work, so you have to sell more value-added and more convenience. Like the above offer.
Good call by Callisto-moon
Report bongo February 20, 2017 7:59 PM GMT
The Contra Broker Betfair High Risk Fund II is 3 months old today:

As things stand this Fund is up 10.5%, compared to the FTSE 100 as a whole which is up 7.7% over the 3 month period.
The biggest consensus buy which was Shire ( SHP ) has advanced a mere penny from 4799 to 4800 over the same period.

As before the rules of the Fund said it would run for 6 months so we cannot cash out yet and claim success, but it's looking good.
Report bongo March 26, 2017 4:21 PM BST
Deutsche Bank seem to have gone mental with this opinion:
"Sterling will fall sharply this year to as low as $1.06 against the dollar" - from .

They haven't a clue about politics here, perhaps because they are based abroad for now, but a softer brexit will emerge imv after the negotiations begin and the £ will end up the year a couple of % higher than now. Imv, of course. But the analysts have lost it with the 1.06 prediction.
Report bongo April 13, 2017 8:44 PM BST
Economists at Berenberg have said the following today:
"For France, Europe and markets, a run-off between Mélenchon and ultra-right Marine Le Pen on 7 May would be a choice between bad and ugly. We continue to see a 10% risk that Le Pen will be the next French president. However, we now add a 10% risk of an almost equally negative outcome, namely that Mélenchon may win"

They think Le Pen is ultra-right. Have they seen her policies? Wealth taxes, more social care and more involvement by the French State in the economy. She is trading at odds that indicate she is 20% likely to win, so if the experts are right and 10% is a better reflection then she must be laid.
Contra-broker theory says she must be backed. Within 1 month we should know if brokers or contra-brokers are right on this.
Report bongo May 10, 2017 7:51 PM BST
Well, the brokers got the French election half right. They effectively said Le Pen should be layed as her true chances were 10% ( priced around 5.0 at the time ). In hindsight her chances were even less than that. They got Mélenchon wrong though.
Report bongo May 20, 2017 10:42 AM BST
The Contra Broker Betfair High Risk Fund II closes today
The elements of the fund today stand as follows, opening prices in brackets:
ADM    2003.5 (1917)
ANTO   809.5 (666)
IHG    4260.5 (3250)
INTU   265.55 (268.1)
KGF    367.65 (368.1)
MRW    242.4 (218.3)
RBS    262.95 (205.1)
RR.    850.75 (657.5)
The FTSE 100 index today stands at 7470.71 (6775.77)

So the CBBHRF(II) has risen 15.59% in the 6 months it ran for.
The FTSE 100 has risen 10.26% in the same period.

Excellent for contra-broker fans.

Anyone investing in the biggest consensus buy, SHP, would have seen an increase of only 1.12% from 4799 to 4852.75.
Report Gin May 22, 2017 1:45 PM BST
Interesting results – you could set up a pairs trade selling the FTSE as well as buying the CBBHRF stocks and hopefully profit whichever way the markets move.

Or is that what you are already advocating?
Report Dr Crippen August 1, 2017 7:00 PM BST
What we are looking at here are recovery shares.
Report Dr Crippen August 6, 2017 2:31 PM BST
What bongo has established here is to be commended; yet it simply shows that share movements aren't driven simply by the fundamentals.

Because we can be sure that brokers forecasts are logical conclusions arrived at from studying the future prospects of a company and their current trading health.

By making forecasts they've simply done the footwork for us.

Which all goes to show that we need more than the simple fundamentals to guide us when investing in shares.
Report Gin September 13, 2017 8:21 PM BST
It seems a shame to let this post die so hopefully bongo won’t object if I introduce the Contra Broker Betfair High Risk Fund III.
A couple of changes:

I couldn’t find an easy to see list of all broker recommendations on the Hargreaves Lansdown website and didn’t want to click on every share individually. On the telegraph website here:

there is a full list showing recommendations. Unfortunately there were only 3 sell recommendations so I copy/pasted all companies into a spreadsheet and awarded points on the following basis:

Strong Buy –   20
Buy -          10
Neutral –       0
Sell -        -10
Strong Sell-  -20

I then added the scores and divided them to get an average. There were 12 companies with a negative average rating so I took these.

I have bought £1000 of shares in each company at tonight’s (13th September) closing prices. These are the stocks with their prices:

I also noticed that there were 11 companies with a “strong buy” rating (above 15) so thought it would be fun to track these as well:

The FTSE closed at 7379.1.
Report Gin September 13, 2017 8:24 PM BST
Just to clarify:

I divided the total points scored for each company **By the number of broker's forecasts.
Report Gin September 13, 2017 8:29 PM BST
Report Gin September 13, 2017 8:30 PM BST
I tried to make the pictures bigger but it didn't work Blush
Report Gin September 13, 2017 8:48 PM BST
FTSE - 7379.1

Stock    Price

ADM.L    1812
PSON.L    590.5
ANTO.L    969
NXT.L    4417
CNA.L    191.8
FRES.L    1513
IHG.L    3794
KGF.L    289.6
MRW.L    245
BLT.L    1408.5
ITRK.L    4960
BRBY.L    1764
Report bongo September 15, 2017 11:01 PM BST
No objections at all Gin
How long will the CBBHRF III run for?
Report Gin September 18, 2017 10:58 AM BST
We'll stick to the same rules - ie fund to run for 6 months.
Report Gin September 18, 2017 11:45 AM BST
By the way bongo, is there an easy way to see all the broker sell recommendations in one place on the Hargreaves Lansdown website? If there is, I couldn't find it.
Report bongo September 19, 2017 8:30 PM BST
There's no easy way, unless you can write a script to parse the data.
I went through all 100 one at a time.
Report Gin September 20, 2017 8:08 AM BST

In that case I think I will stick to the Telegraph page!
Report Gin October 17, 2017 3:40 PM BST
Just a quick one month update, and its a good start for the Contra Broker fund as it is up 3.12% compared to the FTSE's 2.11%!

Two of the stocks have had double digit returns in just one month (PSON & NXT - two of the stronger sells Shocked)

Report xmoneyx October 31, 2017 11:57 AM GMT
A forex trader once imparted wisdom to me.

"If anyone in this game could actually accurately predict the market, there wouldn't be one."
Report Gin December 14, 2017 12:38 PM GMT
Okay, we're half way through the life of the Contra-Broker High Risk Fund III and after three months despite spending most of the time ahead of the FTSE benchmark, it has now slipped back below it.

Fund -  -0.11%
FTSE -  +0.48%

So the fund is 0.59% lower than the benchmark.

There is a wide disparity in performance of the individual stocks.

The Top 3:

PSON - +25.74%
IHG  - +18.21%
KGF  - +15.64%

The bottom 3:

CNA  - -27.69%
FRES - -14.01%
MRW  - -12.90%
Report Gin December 14, 2017 2:51 PM GMT
Congratulations to those of you who spotted the (not so) obvious mistake above where I only gave the data for 2 months instead of 3. (who am I kidding - nobody is actually looking at this thread! Silly).

The three month figures and chart are below and show the fund doing slightly worse against the benchmark. Fund= +0.26%   FTSE= +1.58% for a difference of 1.32%:

Report bongo February 8, 2018 10:02 PM GMT
A couple of sweet broker forecasts on the HL web-site today:

From the Bank of England on inflation
"it expects stronger wage growth than previously and that inflation is still forecast to be above the 2% target in three years' time"
Well, it depends how you measure it, but central banks have gotten quite good at getting close to their inflation targets since NZ pioneered the concept in the 1990s. Housing, if included, and energy are the biggest components in the index, and can you seriously expect costs to be higher for those?

And from David Madden at CMC markets
"traders [are] now pricing in a 100% probability of an interest rate rise from the BoE in August"
You will probably be right David, but would you give me 50/1 that you are wrong on this? August is only 6 months away, the BoE were unanimous today in keeping things put, and data from landlords came out this week showing a big increase in those struggling to pay the mortgage interest. Does the BoE want to start ratcheting up the pressure on people who provide a place to live for other people, and who aren't making any money out of doing so? Do they really want the labels that will go with that?

As always, time will tell, but imv go contra broker if you can.
Report Gin February 9, 2018 12:09 PM GMT
"traders [are] now pricing in a 100% probability of an interest rate rise from the BoE in August"

Ridiculous (whatever happens come August).
Report Gin March 13, 2018 9:22 PM GMT
Today marks the end of the 6 months for the Contra Broker High Risk Fund III – and it has some interesting results!

Despite the portfolio closely matching its benchmark (FTSE 100) for the first 5 months of the funds life, the last month has seen a real divergence :

Portfolio - +1.72%
Benchmark - -3.26%

Meaning that the fund has out-performed by 4.98%

Even more interesting is that the second fund I tracked which took the “strong buys” from the brokers recommended list actually underperformed the FTSE!

Portfolio -  -4.74%
Benchmark –  -3.26%

Meaning the fund underperformed by 1.48%

So to summarise, the fund of broker’s  “strong sells” outperformed the fund of broker’s “strong buys” by 6.46% in 6 months. Interesting results and ones that give more confirmation of Bongo’s theory that broker’s forecasts really are useless.

I will update the fund’s holdings when I get a chance and carry on the experiment to see how things go.
Report Gin March 13, 2018 9:27 PM GMT
Oops - I posted the wrong pic for the list of "strong buys".

It should be this:

Report Gin March 14, 2018 2:49 PM GMT
Okay, today is the start of the Contra Broker High Risk Fund IV – Using the same criteria to pick the fund constituents as above, throws up only six negative stocks. I have bought these using last night’s closing prices.

I have also once again created a new fund of the “strong buys” which contains eleven stocks:

The funds will again be run for six months.
Report bongo March 28, 2018 9:13 PM BST
Excellent work by Gin
Report bongo April 30, 2018 9:20 PM BST
The UK hasn't run a trade surplus since the 1990s. But the trend has been reversing of late. In round numbers we imported about £1.10 for every £1 exported between 2008 and 2016, but in the last 18 months this has dropped to around £1.06 for every £1 exported. There's quite a bit of monthly variation and it would only need a bad month in non-food retail, where most of what is sold is imported, and a bad month in factory investment ( all those German machine-tools not being bought ) to see imports drop a few % and the ONS to declare a slight trade surplus for the first time in 20 years.
I predict it will happen this year some time.
This is not a broker forecast, just my forecast.
The second part of the forecast is that all the smart ass mercantilists at Guido Fawkes will say this is good news. ( It isn't, it just makes proud brits feel good ).
Report Gin June 14, 2018 6:55 AM BST
3 month update:

FTSE:         +7.91%

CBHRFIV:    +13.93%

Difference:    +6.02%

Continuing to prove that brokers forecasts useless..........................
Report Charlton2005 July 26, 2018 6:46 PM BST
investec anaylst said glencore is worth zero. price tanked from 108 to 67 that day. within 2 years it was up 500%. draw your own conclusions
Report Gin September 14, 2018 11:45 AM BST
Last night marked another 6 months gone and the end of the latest fund (Contra Broker High Risk Fund IV):

Once again it outshone the FTSE – This time by a massive 10.15%!!!!

Portfolio    +12.15%
FTSE        +2.00%
Difference    +10.15%

As before, I also kept a record of the “Strong Buys” and once again, these under-performed the market. This time by 4.53%.

Portfolio    -2.53%
FTSE        +2.00%
Difference    -4.53%

Continuing to prove that broker’s forecasts are useless!
Report Gin September 14, 2018 12:02 PM BST
That means that since I started doing this a year ago, the Contra Broker High Risk Fund (which takes the brokers forecasts “Strong Sells”) has out-performed the FTSE as a whole by 15.41%.

Portfolio    +14.08%
FTSE        -1.33%
Difference    +15.41%

In contrast, the Contra-Contra Brokers High Risk Fund (which takes the broker’s forecasts “Strong Buys”) has under-performed the FTSE as a whole by 5.82%.

Portfolio    -7.15%
FTSE        -1.33%
Difference    -5.82%

To quote Johnny Rotten at the end of the Sex Pistol’s  last ever concert – “Ever get the feeling you’ve been cheated!”
Report Gin September 14, 2018 3:55 PM BST
Okay – Here are the new constituents for the Contra Broker High Risk Fund V. There were only four actually rated as “sells” but using the same method as before, I have taken all the stocks that rate negatively. This gives nine stocks:

Here is the new list of “Strong buys”. There are eighteen of them which seems a bit much but I will stick to the same method and use them all:

Report Gin September 14, 2018 3:59 PM BST
As before, the funds will run for 6 months (so will close 13th March 2019).

It will be interesting to see if the fund can outperform the benchmark FTSE yet again. I suspect it may perform badly during a big downturn - which we haven't seen yet.
Report Gin September 14, 2018 4:07 PM BST
I forgot to mention that Paddy Power Betfair have made an appearance in the fund, rating as a "sell" or "strong sell" by four out of six brokers.
Report Gin March 19, 2019 11:15 AM GMT
Another 6 months gone and we have had our first reversal for the Contra Broker High Risk Fund (Brokers Strong Sells):

Benchmark    -1.68%
Portfolio    -6.14%
Difference    -4.46%

However, the Contra Contra Broker High Risk Fund has continued to show how useless the brokers strong buy recommendations are:

Benchmark    -1.68%
Portfolio    -11.12%
Difference    -9.44%

Report Gin March 19, 2019 11:21 AM GMT
Running Totals:

Report Gin March 19, 2019 11:26 AM GMT
As you can tell by now, I am keeping this running for my own amusement but on the off-chance that anyone is interested here are the new picks to run from 13/03/2019 – 13/09/2019:

First the Contra Broker High Risk Fund VI:

And the Contra Contra Broker High Risk Fund IV:

Report Gin March 19, 2019 11:28 AM GMT
Try again!

And the Contra Contra Broker High Risk Fund IV:

Report VardonVoo. August 4, 2019 3:52 AM BST
Dr Crippen posted some time ago:-

"What bongo has established here is to be commended; yet it simply shows that share movements aren't driven simply by the fundamentals.

Because we can be sure that brokers forecasts are logical conclusions arrived at from studying the future prospects of a company and their current trading health.

By making forecasts they've simply done the footwork for us.

Which all goes to show that we need more than the simple fundamentals to guide us when investing in shares."

I have to take issue with the italicised statement for the following reason - these are free broker forecasts made widely available to the uneducated public, therefore the cynic might question the real motivation behind them. For example if a load of early investors wished to offload a ton of Bitcoin without tanking the market, it might suit their interests if the ignorant masses were somehow persuaded that Bitcoin was a good, safe, long-term investment. It also does the broker issuing the free forecasts no harm whatsoever if people trade on their recommendations, generating brokerage fees, then months later trade out again on the opposing recommendation.
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