Tradefair & Financials
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Hargreaves Lansdowne's website helpfully displays a 'broker forecasts' temperature bar for stocks.
If it's in the Red half - sell
If it's in the Blue half - the brokers on balance say buy
In theory if everything is perfectly priced, and there's no inflation, half of all stocks should be rated as 'sell' by the balance of broker opinion.
But they're not - only 13 of the FTSE 100 are rated as 'sell'. Here they are, with current prices today
FTSE 100 - 6302
TSCO - 172.65
SBRY - 262.30
INTU - 321.80
KGF - 355.65
SL. - 413.55
AAL - 494
ANTO - 500.75
RR. - 684.25
CCH - 1540
ADM - 1636
PSN - 1844.50
SVT - 2149
ULVR - 2839.50
All other stocks in the FTSE 100 are rated on balance as 'buy' by the broker recommending community ( or in a couple of cases 'neutral' ).
I'll check this lot in about 6 months time, and see if they outperformed the index as a whole.
If it's in the Red half - sell
If it's in the Blue half - the brokers on balance say buy
In theory if everything is perfectly priced, and there's no inflation, half of all stocks should be rated as 'sell' by the balance of broker opinion.
But they're not - only 13 of the FTSE 100 are rated as 'sell'. Here they are, with current prices today
FTSE 100 - 6302
TSCO - 172.65
SBRY - 262.30
INTU - 321.80
KGF - 355.65
SL. - 413.55
AAL - 494
ANTO - 500.75
RR. - 684.25
CCH - 1540
ADM - 1636
PSN - 1844.50
SVT - 2149
ULVR - 2839.50
All other stocks in the FTSE 100 are rated on balance as 'buy' by the broker recommending community ( or in a couple of cases 'neutral' ).
I'll check this lot in about 6 months time, and see if they outperformed the index as a whole.
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Replies: 72
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Amen to that!!!,i had circular telling me to buy Marconi at 400!!!,with all the shares out there you'd think that bad shares could be avoided.Ive kept old magazines and gone back to them 10 years later,didn't make good reading.The way to go is to do it all yourself,research is everything,do't fall into the trap of analysing other peoples analysis.
People say that they know something when in fact its something that they have read,or heard, and not something that they themselves have verified. I see a sell for Tesco there,well,they have been very weak,although i don't research all short term movements,i would have thought that Tesco would rally sometime soon. The rally could well be poor,not enough to risk a punt.A wait and see attitude for them at the mo,they're heading down anyway,why risk trying to make money on a smallish rally. |
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I reckon it would pay to sell most of them over the hsort term. The release is often accompanied by an early M.Maker rise that limits PI's from getting involved, the froth has already gone. Usually they then settle as interest goes off and slip back. Interesting to see how your concept develops.
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The thing to remember is that it's the actual buying of shares that sends the prices up, and the selling of them that sends the prices down.
People's opinions of the companies in question count for nothing in the face of that. If the right people aren't buying the shares in the required volumes then the price will not go up. The same when they sell, regardless of what the general opinion is, the market is doomed when they decide it's time to take profits. I don't think these people invest through the H & L website, or are influenced by brokers best guesses - do you? |
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One month in and the FTSE 100 is down 4.04% and the earlier basket of 13 duds as stated by brokers is down 9.58%.
It looks so far like at the extremes ( for these were the 13 worst picks ) them brokers know what they are talking about. Will give it another 5 months though. |
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All other stocks in the FTSE 100 are rated on balance as 'buy' by the broker recommending community
So they were correct about the basket containing the 13 duds, and wrong about the basket containing the 87 buys - so far. That looks pretty dismal forecasting to me - so far. |
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http://images.onesite.com/community.betfair.com/user/akabula/thumb/86719b4e7db158350660e2553983825d.png?v=120777
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Three months into the six month test.
Here are the current prices of the supposed stock market duds( close today ) FTSE 100 - 6302 TSCO - 186.9 SBRY - 261.4 INTU - 289.6 KGF - 340.3 SL. - 346.3 AAL - 467.9 ANTO - 478.3 RR. - 677.7 CCH - 1385.5 ADM - 1730.5 PSN - 1998.5 SVT - 2112 ULVR - 3047.2 Average change -1.8% FTSE - 6030.3 Change in the FTSE -4.3% It's turned round a bit in the last 2 months, and now the duds are ahead of the other 87, although you'd still be down of course. |
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so the ones the brokers recommended to sell are doing better than the ones they recommend to buy or hold? doubles all round
 . there's plenty of time for change.i've only just seen this. its a shame you didnt introduce a random element, say rolling a dice to decide whether or not to buy or sell. |
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^^^ as a comparison.
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About two months to go in this trial and the index and prices are listed as follows:
FTSE100 6139.79 TSCO 192.25 SBRY 273.25 INTU 304.6 KGF 342.35 SL. 364.45 AAL 515.55 ANTO 523.75 RR. 686.25 CCH 1395.5 ADM 1915.5 PSN 1990.5 SVT 2062.5 ULVR 3096.25 The FTSE 100 as a whole is down 2.57%. And the 13 duds which were 'consensus sell' on broker ratings 4 months ago are up 1.88% on average. |
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Interesting thread. I looked about 2 months ago and the two companies the brokers were most negative about were ROR and RR. I dont know the numbers but i think they have gone up and done fairly well since.
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Final results are in after the 6 months monitoring period. The duds have fallen back a bit in the last 2 months but still finished ahead of the index as a whole:
FTSE100 6162.49 TSCO 159.37 SBRY 262.9 INTU 292.05 KGF 362.95 SL. 319.4 ( worst dud down 23% ) AAL 617.35 ( best dud up 25% ) ANTO 425.75 RR. 658.25 CCH 1401.5 ADM 1924 PSN 1956.5 SVT 2229.5 ULVR 3150.75 The FTSE 100 as a whole is down 2.21%. And the 13 duds which were 'consensus sell' on broker ratings 6 months ago are down 0.14% on average. So a differential of 2.07%. I was hoping for a differential of 5%+ then I could launch a Contra Broker High Risk Bongo Fund and attract investors, domicile in Jersey of course! Alas the differential is very small, so the case against following broker forecasts is a good one, but not brilliant. |
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this is one of the most informative threads around bongo, well done.
imo the differential is large as the duds are down a little over 6% of what the main index is down by. i'm dividing one into the other, this makes the performance of the bongo fund look much, much better! i think you should market yourself as sixteen times better than brokers which sounds better than i only lose 6% of what brokers lose. you should call your fund low risk if you want to attract cash. i am available to provide advice, or as some would call it a dice, to help make informed investment decisions! i'm sure the brokers have received bonuses for their decisions regardless. any chace of persuading you to update again in three and six months time? |
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Cheers for your thoughts jollyswagman:
I won't be updating the same list. The intention was to run the trial for 6 months, and if starting today some of the stocks are no longer 'consensus sell' including biggest faller Standard Life which is now a 'consensus buy'. However if we did start from today, the 9 strongest 'consensus sell' stocks with current prices would be these: AAL 578.25 ADN 265.35 ANTO 411.85 BRBY 1139.5 CCH 1349 FRES 1115.75 INTU 292.55 KGF 356.85 RR. 649.75 The FTSE 100 index is at 6138.5 So those 9 now make the Contra Broker Betfair High Risk Fund, which launches today and will run for 6 months. It's got some miners, fund management companies, retail and a couple of other bits. Retail is interesting as it's at risk from internet shopping and minimum wage increases. However quite a lot of data is coming through about the recent minimum wage rise to £7.20 hurting employment, there's already been U-turns by the Conservatives on other policies, so there's a slim but real chance they'll back down on future forced wage rises, or hand back the decision on setting the level to the previous non-political committee. So risky retail could be high reward. |
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Here's a choice extract from the HL review of the day:
"A YouGov poll found 45% in the UK wanted to leave the EU, while 41% were in favour of staying. An Observer/Opinium poll also found the Leave campaign ahead by 43% to 40%. Sterling dropped 0.38% to $1.4463 at 1633 BST. "While I would expect more downside if the polls continue to show the 'Leave' campaign gathering momentum, the pound is likely to be very volatile in both directions over the next couple of weeks," said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda. "The polls are having a significant impact on the pound and some of them are sending very different messages. While support for 'Leave' is clearly growing, I still believe it will be a relatively comfortable win for 'Remain' on 23 June, albeit possibly not quite as comfortable as some will have hoped." Analysts are full of schit in their general public announcements - might as well get a baby to spit a dummy at a bingo card. |
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From the Hargreaves Lansdowne website:
"Morgan Stanley said in an equity strategy note that its base case was for the UK to remain in the EU, a scenario that could push the FTSE 100 up by as much as 14% from current levels. In the event of a vote to Remain, the bank expects the FTSE 100 to move up to a range of between 6,500 and 6,800" Based on Remain being around 65% likely when that was said by Morgan Stanley, then a Leave vote would take the FTSE 100 just below 5200. A 21 year old economist called Theo Clifford with the occasional piece for the ASI has worked out a Leave vote ( technically a leave vote being a 100% shot on the betting markets ) would take the FTSE to around 5700. Morgan Stanley versus Theo Clifford: it sounds a bit like Real Madrid versus Hartlepool United. But this is brokerage firms we are talking about, they are not trying to help or entertain you better than the smaller team can, they just want your money. I'm betting on the kid. |
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there's room for the bongo newsletter me thinks, just wait for hl to publish their sh1t and suggest the investing public (mugs) do the opposite. riches await.
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A poor performance on the EUref from the analysts at Oanda and Morgan Stanley.
Anyway, HSBC have put up this projection today: "Following the referendum result, economists at HSBC cut their forecast for the rate of growth in UK gross domestic product in 2017 from 2.1% to 0.7%. They also revised their projection for CPI inflation next year to 4.0% from 1.7%." It's simple and measurable. We'll know in about 20 months time if their old or their newer estimates were closer. |
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It's just about half way for the Contra Broker Betfair High Risk Fund. The elements of the fund stand as follows today:
AAL 856.9 ADN 328.35 ANTO 514 BRBY 1356.5 CCH 1721 FRES 1962 INTU 313 KGF 365.45 RR. 799 Average increase is 27.9% The FTSE 100 stands at 6916.02, an increase of 12.7% on when this notional fund was launched. Alas, the rules of the fund said it would run for 6 months so we cannot cash out yet and claim success, but things are promising at half-way. |
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interesting thread.....i like it
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interesting thread.....i like it
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my 60/40 vanguard world index up 70% in 5 years
Dow 130% in 5 years |
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Is that pure luck?
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pound cost ave in
cash in 5 years from retirement |
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It's been 6 months, so now the Contra Broker Betfair High Risk Fund is closed down. The elements of the fund stand as follows today:
AAL 1096.5 ADN 295.55 ANTO 671 BRBY 1413.5 CCH 1678.5 FRES 1404.5 INTU 268.2 KGF 363.25 RR. 754.25 Average increase is 27.6% since when this notional fund was launched. The FTSE 100 stands at 6792.74, an increase of 10.7% over the same period. That's an excellent result imv. Starting in a few days will be the Contra Broker Betfair High Risk Fund II, drawn from the new biggest consensus sells as advised by brokers. Meanwhile, this is a broker prediction made on Friday: "S&P Global said a so-called "hard Brexit", in which Britain loses its access to the single market, is the most likely outcome of negotiations. S&P's chief sovereign credit officer Mortiz Kraemer said it is hard see how a hard Brexit can be avoided unless both sides become more flexible." I think Mr Mortiz Kraemer has got his analysis completely wrong - based on contra broker theory remaining in the Single Market is the most likely outcome of negotiations, and the UK and the EU will get there by being less flexible, not more flexible in their negotiating. The EU will say "Do you want free movement of goods and services", the UK will say "Yes, but without free movement", the EU will say "Phuck off then, this is our red line", the UK will say "Ok, we'll accept free movement then, it's not that big a deal". Time will tell if Mr Mortiz Kraemer is right. |
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Can't believe this is a year old.
Good work. |
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The Contra Broker Betfair High Risk Fund II launches today.
It comprises the following elements, being the eight biggest consensus sell stocks in the FTSE 100. Broker ratings are taken from the HL web-site The elements of the fund today stand as follows: ADM 1917 ANTO 666 IHG 3250 INTU 268.1 KGF 368.1 MRW 218.3 RBS 205.1 RR. 657.5 The FTSE index today stands at 3775.77 TO be honest, I don't like the look of a few of those, especially RBS who don't pay a dividend and Morrisons who sell too much cheap food. Value-added is where it's at, and to make a profit these days you have to sell food that is over-priced due to convenience, being served to you in a restaurant/cafe, or which is personalised. Imv, of course. On second thoughts Morrisons are trying in these areas. The fund will run for 6 months. For a stock to avoid, the biggest consensus buy on broker ratings is biotech firm Shire ( SHP ) which is priced at 4799. Sell this now if you know what is good for you. |
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I had to sell my morrisons holding and then it jumped.
The thing I liked about them was the fact they were not heavily into home delivery. Working in food retail I can't honestly see how long term it's a profitable venture. Every delivery provides a profit level of £5. But there is no accounting for good will refunds on late deliveries or accidents in the vans. Mrw now teamed with amazon to do deliveries. |
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Barclays Research have just provided this analysis to their clients:
"Putting everything together, we now expect GDP to edge 0.7% next year (0.5% previously) and 1.5% in 2018 (unchanged). This remains overall cautious and in the lower range of the consensus (1.1% for next year +/- a standard deviation of 0.6pp) as we continue to believe that the actual triggering of Article 50 and the subsequent drop in sentiment will deliver some negativity in the first half of next year" This is the first time I've seen a standard deviation in a forecast. I knew they use them, but not seen one quoted in a projection published for reading by the public who may not understand or even be bothered by this sort of thing. It's a bit like seeing Kevin Pullein saying he thinks Manchester United will finish the season on 68 points with a deviation of 5 points. It's rare to declare a range on your estimates like that. I think Barclays Research are wrong - once it is clear that the UK is staying in the Single Market, growth will end up being at or just above the level of recent years. I'd go for 2.3% with a deviation of 0.6%. |
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visual history of the dow 1876 - 2016
https://mobile.twitter.com/WSJ/status/814529854272114688/photo/1 |
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"MRW - The Best 21 Day Matured British Beef Chateaubriand steak (450g) will be available pre-packed from Morrisons Market Street butcher shelves UK-wide at £15 from Thursday 9th February in time for Valentine’s Day."
Diane and peppercorn sauces will be sold in the same section. I can't help thinking the new management have done excellent work. You can't realistically shift more Calories to a population doing less physical work, so you have to sell more value-added and more convenience. Like the above offer. Good call by Callisto-moon |
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The Contra Broker Betfair High Risk Fund II is 3 months old today:
As things stand this Fund is up 10.5%, compared to the FTSE 100 as a whole which is up 7.7% over the 3 month period. The biggest consensus buy which was Shire ( SHP ) has advanced a mere penny from 4799 to 4800 over the same period. As before the rules of the Fund said it would run for 6 months so we cannot cash out yet and claim success, but it's looking good. |
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Deutsche Bank seem to have gone mental with this opinion:
"Sterling will fall sharply this year to as low as $1.06 against the dollar" - from .http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-sterling-brexit-idUKKBN16U1PP?il=0 They haven't a clue about politics here, perhaps because they are based abroad for now, but a softer brexit will emerge imv after the negotiations begin and the £ will end up the year a couple of % higher than now. Imv, of course. But the analysts have lost it with the 1.06 prediction. |
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Economists at Berenberg have said the following today:
"For France, Europe and markets, a run-off between Mélenchon and ultra-right Marine Le Pen on 7 May would be a choice between bad and ugly. We continue to see a 10% risk that Le Pen will be the next French president. However, we now add a 10% risk of an almost equally negative outcome, namely that Mélenchon may win" They think Le Pen is ultra-right. Have they seen her policies? Wealth taxes, more social care and more involvement by the French State in the economy. She is trading at odds that indicate she is 20% likely to win, so if the experts are right and 10% is a better reflection then she must be laid. Contra-broker theory says she must be backed. Within 1 month we should know if brokers or contra-brokers are right on this. |
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Well, the brokers got the French election half right. They effectively said Le Pen should be layed as her true chances were 10% ( priced around 5.0 at the time ). In hindsight her chances were even less than that. They got Mélenchon wrong though.
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The Contra Broker Betfair High Risk Fund II closes today
The elements of the fund today stand as follows, opening prices in brackets: ADM 2003.5 (1917) ANTO 809.5 (666) IHG 4260.5 (3250) INTU 265.55 (268.1) KGF 367.65 (368.1) MRW 242.4 (218.3) RBS 262.95 (205.1) RR. 850.75 (657.5) The FTSE 100 index today stands at 7470.71 (6775.77) So the CBBHRF(II) has risen 15.59% in the 6 months it ran for. The FTSE 100 has risen 10.26% in the same period. Excellent for contra-broker fans. Anyone investing in the biggest consensus buy, SHP, would have seen an increase of only 1.12% from 4799 to 4852.75. |
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Interesting results – you could set up a pairs trade selling the FTSE as well as buying the CBBHRF stocks and hopefully profit whichever way the markets move.
Or is that what you are already advocating? |
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What we are looking at here are recovery shares.
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What bongo has established here is to be commended; yet it simply shows that share movements aren't driven simply by the fundamentals.
Because we can be sure that brokers forecasts are logical conclusions arrived at from studying the future prospects of a company and their current trading health. By making forecasts they've simply done the footwork for us. Which all goes to show that we need more than the simple fundamentals to guide us when investing in shares. |