Tradefair & Financials
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Eeternaloptimist 20 Jun 12 01:04
I'd guess it is like the great inflation/deflation debate. The market wants to recorrect but the government has strived to stop this happening. The fight is ongoing. It would be a brave man to call it definitively. On balance I'd favour the line that in a fiat system there is no limit to the number of noughts the government can put on the currency. Given that the question remains how badly do they want to support things? Pretty bad is my hunch. I'd slightly favour holding something, anything, of value at this stage.
Posting a plain vanilla statement like "slightly favour holding something", in the midst of this central bank printing orgy, would be akin to someone letting us know that they like apple pie……..slightly.
Here's something you're not going to find in this morning's financial pages which is evidently where your knowledge of economics is coming from:
It's over. It's not a "brave man" that will call this, the power of the exponential function already has. It's just that you haven't clued in yet.
Everyone who's thought important enough to have their name appear in the media describes this financial crisis as a "problem". The word "problem" subconsciously suggests that there is a "solution". That's precisely what they want mugs like you, and the "we'll muddle through" I-have-nothing-to-say-white-space guy, to think. This isn't a problem, it's a predicament without a solution.
What non-armageddon scenario has interest rates at ZERO (remember we're on a dollar standard, in case that last sentence confused you) for four years now, with no end in sight? What scenario says that money……costs nothing?
What non-armegeddon scenario has every significant central bank expanding the money supply with no end in sight, and without making a dent on this monster?
What non-armagedon scenario has central banks throwing close to 50 trillion at this "problem", yet here we are not a step further in creating real growth?
I could go on but hopefully you get the point. You're not stupid after all, just hurt and not literate enough in economics to post a credible opinion on a financials forum.
It's over.
When there is an exponential divergence between real economic growth and debt/credit expansion (that's what we've had for 30 years), and a monetary system that relies on exponential organic growth to pay the coupon and avoid the ultimate margin call, collapse is certain. Go back and read that last sentence over a few times……CERTAIN. All things, including credit revert back to the mean. Debt has continued expanding while real organic growth has receded. That's what "financial engineering" did through the creation of a fictitious wealth, a mountain of derivatives that dwarfed real production. There's no way out. It's over. Most people like you don't see it because the banking cartel is trying it's damnedest to prop this dead corpse up until a miracle comes along. No miracle is coming.
There's only two paths to choose from here. Allow the bad debt to clear the system, allow banks to fail, the financial system collapses, faith in fiat money is lost. Or, hyperinflate the debt away, the financial system collapses, faith in fiat money is lost. Both paths end up at the same place. The outcome is predetermined, all central banks are doing right now is buying time, hoping for a miracle. Then they'll choose the second path, because it has always been their choice in the past. The only difference is that this time it's global. After all, there has *never* been a single example of a financial and/or currency collapse, ever since banking cartel invented the concept of coloured paper created out of thin air as debt to be used as money, due to deflation. There are hundreds of examples however of a currency collapse due to hyperinflation.
You don't belong here. You should have kept to spewing drivel and angry insults as part of the "benny the clown halfwit cartel". The first time you posted about something remotely considered commenting on economics you exposed your vast ignorance spoon fed to you by banking cartel propaganda.
I have no problem with you hanging around though, perhaps I can help. For you have colourful prose and graceful syntax but I'm another kind of poet.
I'd guess it is like the great inflation/deflation debate. The market wants to recorrect but the government has strived to stop this happening. The fight is ongoing. It would be a brave man to call it definitively. On balance I'd favour the line that in a fiat system there is no limit to the number of noughts the government can put on the currency. Given that the question remains how badly do they want to support things? Pretty bad is my hunch. I'd slightly favour holding something, anything, of value at this stage.
Posting a plain vanilla statement like "slightly favour holding something", in the midst of this central bank printing orgy, would be akin to someone letting us know that they like apple pie……..slightly.
Here's something you're not going to find in this morning's financial pages which is evidently where your knowledge of economics is coming from:
It's over. It's not a "brave man" that will call this, the power of the exponential function already has. It's just that you haven't clued in yet.
Everyone who's thought important enough to have their name appear in the media describes this financial crisis as a "problem". The word "problem" subconsciously suggests that there is a "solution". That's precisely what they want mugs like you, and the "we'll muddle through" I-have-nothing-to-say-white-space guy, to think. This isn't a problem, it's a predicament without a solution.
What non-armageddon scenario has interest rates at ZERO (remember we're on a dollar standard, in case that last sentence confused you) for four years now, with no end in sight? What scenario says that money……costs nothing?
What non-armegeddon scenario has every significant central bank expanding the money supply with no end in sight, and without making a dent on this monster?
What non-armagedon scenario has central banks throwing close to 50 trillion at this "problem", yet here we are not a step further in creating real growth?
I could go on but hopefully you get the point. You're not stupid after all, just hurt and not literate enough in economics to post a credible opinion on a financials forum.
It's over.
When there is an exponential divergence between real economic growth and debt/credit expansion (that's what we've had for 30 years), and a monetary system that relies on exponential organic growth to pay the coupon and avoid the ultimate margin call, collapse is certain. Go back and read that last sentence over a few times……CERTAIN. All things, including credit revert back to the mean. Debt has continued expanding while real organic growth has receded. That's what "financial engineering" did through the creation of a fictitious wealth, a mountain of derivatives that dwarfed real production. There's no way out. It's over. Most people like you don't see it because the banking cartel is trying it's damnedest to prop this dead corpse up until a miracle comes along. No miracle is coming.
There's only two paths to choose from here. Allow the bad debt to clear the system, allow banks to fail, the financial system collapses, faith in fiat money is lost. Or, hyperinflate the debt away, the financial system collapses, faith in fiat money is lost. Both paths end up at the same place. The outcome is predetermined, all central banks are doing right now is buying time, hoping for a miracle. Then they'll choose the second path, because it has always been their choice in the past. The only difference is that this time it's global. After all, there has *never* been a single example of a financial and/or currency collapse, ever since banking cartel invented the concept of coloured paper created out of thin air as debt to be used as money, due to deflation. There are hundreds of examples however of a currency collapse due to hyperinflation.
You don't belong here. You should have kept to spewing drivel and angry insults as part of the "benny the clown halfwit cartel". The first time you posted about something remotely considered commenting on economics you exposed your vast ignorance spoon fed to you by banking cartel propaganda.
I have no problem with you hanging around though, perhaps I can help. For you have colourful prose and graceful syntax but I'm another kind of poet.
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Someone asked me through a PM to clarify my comment "central banks are waiting for a miracle" when in fact they are constantly intervening in setting interest rates, asset valuations, etc, instead of letting the free market work. Great question.
Here's my take on it: The CBs are trying to manage the bouts of bank balance sheet deflation (the ONLY kind of deflation out there at the moment, unless you thought bubble housing prices reverting to mean was deflation, especially when the housing market is priced at the margin) and expanding their balance sheet with easing (money printing, ZIRP, swaps, special lending windows, etc) in such a way as to: 1. prevent the banks from collapsing (changing the accounting rules on M2M helps) and seeing everything get sucked in into a deflationary vortex 2. keep inflation in check, particularly through the management of Oil prices in a range that doesn't completely kill whatever economic activity remains but also keeps the Arabs and the Canadian oil sands guys happy........this is now unfolding right in front of your eyes, live and colour if you are paying attention. 3. prevent gold from revealing to the lemmings the massive expansion of their balance sheets and fiat money debasement through the heavy handed management of the metal since Q4 2011. Bernake was not about to make the same mistake as Volcker.....this also is work in progress 4. and finally, manage the equities and bond markets. The CBs know that most lemmings see the market as a proxy for the health of the broad economy and pension funds performance is invariably, one way or another, tied into market performance. They are also managing interest rates because of their FALSE belief that lower interest rates lead to growth and make debt obligations less onerous. That myth has been debunked by modern day monetarist economists but unfortunately I don't know of a single CB that's not run by Keynesians. As that brilliant Australian economist Steve Keen has so eloquently put it "CBs are pulling on levers that are no longer connected to anything". Sorry to see some posters electing to communicate and ask questions through PMs to avoid getting sh1t on by the "benny the clown halfwit cartel" but unfortunately this is the state of affairs on here at the moment. |
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some interesting thoughts
I cannot remember what movie it was where the corporations owned the Government but in reality that is what has happened. All the big Co's are sitting on billions of cash and are/will be calling the shots while countries are going bankrupt. The mistake was allowing for competition to be eliminated and the big companies to rule the world. The Western world is based on a free economy but it isn't free at all. It is just run by a few. That few are slowly being bought out by the East. I know I sound like Niall Ferguson but it is hard to imagine a future in 20 years time where the West can compete with the East. The problem is that the East were primarily communist states and I am not sure a leopard can ever change its spots  |
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 that melly may be your biggest meltdown rant yet! It is of course mostly taken from religious fanatics on utube.  It is the most infantile and simplistic of explainations and conclusions. My 12yo nephew could do better. Your absolute misunderstanding of how things work is simply astounding.ASTOUNDING. Your conclusion that there are "There's only two paths to choose from here. " proves how titally clueless you really are. There are many paths and just as many potential conclusions.OR- now think hard...... maybe there is'nt a conclusion at all.  Your childish view of the world is there is a right and wrong answer for everything.Newsflash- there is'nt. You must be horribly broke melly as ,if you followed your own view, you would have been wiped out over and over again.You would have been short all the wrong things and long all the wrong things.There is no escape from that conclusion. There is no armageddon.There will be no total collapse.Things will roll on, up and down as its always been.They will print and they will stop printing. Guys like me will continue to make $$$, guys like you will continue to lose $$$$ , all the time claiming your "technically" right IMAHO! Your religious like obsession is laughable.Its hilarious actually. You should have been a politician melly- you've just the right mix of stupidity and misplaced ego. Thanks for taking the time to entertain us. btw- gold $1589 |
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Mrben 21 Jun 12 13:36
that melly may be your biggest meltdown rant yet! It is of course mostly taken from religious fanatics on utube. It is the most infantile and simplistic of explainations and conclusions. My 12yo nephew could do better. Your absolute misunderstanding of how things work is simply astounding.ASTOUNDING. Your conclusion that there are "There's only two paths to choose from here. " proves how titally clueless you really are. There are many paths and just as many potential conclusions.OR- now think hard...... maybe there is'nt a conclusion at all. Your childish view of the world is there is a right and wrong answer for everything.Newsflash- there is'nt. You must be horribly broke melly as ,if you followed your own view, you would have been wiped out over and over again.You would have been short all the wrong things and long all the wrong things.There is no escape from that conclusion. There is no armageddon.There will be no total collapse.Things will roll on, up and down as its always been.They will print and they will stop printing. Guys like me will continue to make $$$, guys like you will continue to lose $$$$ , all the time claiming your "technically" right IMAHO! Your religious like obsession is laughable.Its hilarious actually. You should have been a politician melly- you've just the right mix of stupidity and misplaced ego. Thanks for taking the time to entertain us. btw- gold $1589 Lolololol. I think mely has just destroyed u, like iv done many times on the boxing thread and uv done exactly the same. Chat sh1t with nice long words hey. Lolololol. Eo u realy do give it away dnt u, y r u so thick. U see wen eo loses an argument he always starts talking about his nephew weirdly. Last year his nephew was 6 and I asked him y do u keep mentioning him he went mad. I find it quite normal in eo land that his nephew has aged 6 years in 1 year. I asked eo about his opinion on gold and precious metals in 2011 April when gold was £27000ish a kilo. His reply was as daft as ever the precious metal ship has passed and homes should increase. This daft idiot now has the nerve to come on ere and hint, buying gold is a good investment wen it's hovering around 34-37k a kilo. Lol. Iv got all the evidence eo if ur denying. The threads r still here. I'll pull it out if u realy want. |
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Question to melly. In the next year will prices go up or down. Let's say by September in ur opinion do u see a drop or a rise and in percentage terms how sure are about ur forecast. I'd prefer to ask u about the westmidland Market tbh as the southern Market is very different.
Btw mele I did a bit of research about ur statements on the other thread and ones on this and they seem to be very accurate if not bang on. Thank u in advance for some cracking and intersting write ups |
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carlos- are you referring to me?
I've never posted on the boxing thread.Did'nt even know there was one. Before pulling them out- try pulling your head out of you assh |
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wait wait - i get it!
carlos is melly. answer his question melly/carlos  carry on you twit. |
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I think many " experts' also said " It's over. There's no miracle coming " when the huns were massing on the beaches of France getting ready to invade England in WW2.
The mentality of defeat by some never changes. That is the only thing that is certain here. |
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Btw Menelaus' says that he doesn't know of a single CB that's not run by Keynesians. Isn't it the fact that the inflated credit base for all the current problems was set up primarily by the Fed being run by an infamous Ayn Rand acolyte, leading to the crazy excesses of the free, self- controlling markets ?.
We have for sure seen the end of the era free, self-regulating markets, or does Menelaus and his band of merry doomsayers suggest a return to that ill disciplined approach being the only way to salvation and redemption ? Let's bring back all the greed again ? The only point I agree with him on is that that not enough bankers have been held accountable for the mistakes that have occurred and have been rewarded with obscene bonuses and the like. |
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d13phe 21 Jun 12 12:42
................ I cannot remember what movie it was where the corporations owned the Government but in reality that is what has happened. All the big Co's are sitting on billions of cash and are/will be calling the shots while countries are going bankrupt. ......... Just to pick up on your points. Something that's largely missing in discussions/debates/commentary about this financial crisis is......the creditors. Who are the creditors? Who has accumulated so much wealth to be able to finance the borrowing of virtually every country on the planet, while these countries in the meantime have bankrupted themselves, some not even able to pay the coupon. Who are the trillions these major economies are borrowing and spending owed to? Just doing a back of the napkin calculation, I can account for about 25pc coming from pension funds, wealth funds, etc, but who is the other 75pc owed to? Food for thought. Carlos, I presume your question regarding prices was in regards to the housing market. I have no special expertise in real estate but I do believe prices have further to fall. An economy deeply mired in recession despite what the gov't would like you to believe, higher unemployment, declining wages, tax and fee increases and a higher cost of living are not conducive to supporting high house prices, especially ones still deflating from an obscene bubble. Thanks for posting "I think mely has just destroyed u", truer line has never been posted on this forum......not that it would bother the loyal members of his halfwit cartel. |
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your assumption is that the 75% is part of a zero sum game and not just a trillion dollar ponzi scheme?
I also wonder where "the money comes from" It must come from somewhere - hopefully |
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Melanoma
I once watched a Jonh Wayne film where he described another man as, "the most long winded baastard I've ever met". You weren't the other man were you? By the way. Your opening post of so many paragraphs could be boiled down into two words: Read Mises. I'm not saying I disagree with this view but people need timelines. Keynes was right about one thing. In the long run we are all dead. In the long run you may well be right but you need to put some flesh on those bones. What is your timescale for the apocalypse because until that time Mr Ben is going to keep kicking your arris and taking your school dinner money off you. |
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Menelaus has clearly and unambiguously posted his vested interests in all that is happening.
He is very short the stock market and very long the gold market. So if you read everything he says with that reservation in mind, then all should be very clear and understandable. His six figure salary, his bonus, his houses, porsche, Harrods card account etc might all very much depend on his being correct, and maybe this is just putting a bit of biased subjectivity into his " pure economics " tutorials on here ? Unfortunately I'm not a trained economists who could provide all the theoretical counter-arguments to all he says, but trust me they do exist out there. Someone like Paul Krugman would certainly be able to offer many words of intelligent rejection of Menelaus's CERTAIN economic conclusions - now that's an oxymoron if ever I heard one. |
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carlos me old buddy. How are you getting on with convincing the world that Marcel Sedan (sic
) the Algerian rug weaver was the best fighter ever? You can dig any thread out you like old chum. I gave you a considered view on gold that I wouldn't be looking to buy at the time when you asked me. In that time the price of gold has dropped. As I said to you then I had bought some a few years ago but cashed a good amount of my gold and silver holdings in to buy some land. |
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Fine As
That is the point about economics. Everybody is certain that they have the key. It reminds me a bit of religion in that respect. PS Krugman is a **** in my humble opinion. |
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EO Yes I suppose you could say that he is probably a bit too left wing for many people's taste.
Btw I hope the land you bought is arable and that your crop growing skills are honed and ready. Wanna buy a few guns as well ? |
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I've got my guns. I've got my beans and I've got my tin foil hat on just to be safe.
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I think the old left wing right wing thing is overdone. What I ask myself is whether what someone is suggesting is intellectually logical and for me Krugman falls down on the basis of simple logic.
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How a smart chap like you became a member of the "benny the clown halfwit cartel" is beyond me, but I never claimed to know everything, just monetary theory economics. Juts remember, those who sleep with dogs get fleas.
You're not paying attention because I've already answered the "timeline" question. The end comes when it becomes apparent to everyone who manages money on these markets and able to fog a mirror that real inflation is running substantially higher than the UST 10-year yields. That event is certainly on visible horizon. If you are looking for a calendar date, then you better ask someone else. You also seem to be confused about "economics" in general and monetary theory. The first uses, bends and abuses maths to fit its models. The latter is driven by the maths. No speculation, no conjecture, no guessing, just mathematical certainty. |
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That last sentence sums Menelaus up completely.
Very sad really, when you think about it. And to think that something so clear cut, so definitively mathmatically conclusive can be not only the subject of much diverse academic debate in economic circles, but also be totally obscure to all other good minds ( eg those skilled in other subjects but no less intelligent), and, finally, be totally covered up and buried by all popular forms of mainstream media analysis and comment ( all bought and paid for presumably by the vested interests who do not want it revealed until it is too late for the general masses to do anything about it and to protect themselves). I need a drink. Maybe kool- aid if I ever start to believe Menelaus. |
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And maybe Menelaus would like to put the boot in and tell us that all professional sports will end ( no monies to pay the inflated salaries), no prize monies for HR, and that resultantly all sports betting will cease and that all those who depend on BF exchanges for a living will be begging in the street.
There won't even be any jobs to be had for many years, if history repeats itself. But cheer up, maybe world war will break out and we can all get some fun and enjoyment out of that. |
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Btw it's my birthday today.
Thanks to all the glad tidings from Menelaus, I think I will go and get extra p!ssed. Only thing to do it would seem. |
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Eeternaloptimist 21 Jun 12 17:12
carlos me old buddy. How are you getting on with convincing the world that Marcel Sedan (sic ) the Algerian rug weaver was the best fighter ever? You can dig any thread out you like old chum. I gave you a considered view on gold that I wouldn't be looking to buy at the time when you asked me. In that time the price of gold has dropped. As I said to you then I had bought some a few years ago but cashed a good amount of my gold and silver holdings in to buy some land. Hey hey op. Another f00k up by u I must say. Lolol. Let me tell u summit my friend, I talked about this in may last year. The thread can be found. Remember I bought it up a few months ago. And gold prices can be checked. U r just such a diked. Remember u fancied wlad and u were gona fill ur boots eo. Well guess wat I offered this idiot the best price on it yet he went quite. Just like he is now. Put ur money where ur mouth is |
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And this idiot eo claims to be a barrister
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Just to pick up on your points. Something that's largely missing in discussions/debates/commentary about this financial crisis is......the creditors. Who are the creditors? Who has accumulated so much wealth to be able to finance the borrowing of virtually every country on the planet, while these countries in the meantime have bankrupted themselves, some not even able to pay the coupon. Who are the trillions these major economies are borrowing and spending owed to?
Just doing a back of the napkin calculation, I can account for about 25pc coming from pension funds, wealth funds, etc, but who is the other 75pc owed to? That's just brilliant. The guy has just answered all ur questions with the ultimate question. Idiots like eo, frogman etc etc need answers. Take a leaf out of melenius's book and ask constructive questions. Stupid idiots like u need to understand, if u ask the right question the answer lyes within it. Stop searching for answers u will never find. So before u idiots go on and on and on. Answer the question who are the creditors. All we hear is we r in dept dept dept. Who the f00k is in credit. Legit question dnt u agree. |
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menelaus
I wouldn't be a member of any club that would have me. |
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So clarify if I am wrong but are you saying that you are a Friedmanite?
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We're not still on the gold standard Carlos in case you didn't know,
We are in the era of paper money. Take it or leave it. The whole idea of that is to give Govts. an intervention tool to manage economies. |
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EO
It seems you are a Friedmanite if you believe in the overriding influence of monetary policy, but a Keynesian if Governments use it as a tool to manage the economy. Go figure. |
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Btw what's with the posting style of Carlos ?.
I have a lot of trouble even understanding hs posts and tbh give up before they end. |
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It's unclear if the question was directed at me, but if it was.....if you don't know the difference between what I posted and Friedman's monetarism then perhaps this debate is over your head.
The attempt to impress however is duly noted. I have no idea if Carlos is correct and you are a barrister but if that is indeed the case, it might explain the colorful language, the failure to see how you were being toyed with blinded by your rigid belief that you're too smart for that to happen......as well the basically anecdotal knowledge of economics you are now putting in display. Small world..... |
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I'll tell you what then. Instead of talking and saying nothing why don't you say something? How do you and Friedman differ? What school are you and who is in it? Or are you on your own? So it shall be in economics as it is in life? |
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Fine
Carlos is the poster boy for 13 years of Labour educational policy. eDUCASHion EdUcayshUN EDuKayshoN. |
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By the way I am honoured that you started a thread, "to get my attention."
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I love the jokes eo. Must say u r funny. Love the way u play it. But let me tell u how it is.
Keep 2 the subject in hand eo and co. Y try and divert like u always do. The self pro-claimed barrister. Obviously must be bull. If u feel u r winning this debate please copy and paste where u think u could be right instead of just insulting me. Thanks |
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Just for d record it's pretty clear melenius is dazzling eo. Any sane person would agree!!!
But u get some people who r totaly off set head |
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There head instead of set.
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Can someone explain this to me.
By Menelaus' standards we are all pretty much economically illiterate on here. But he says that if we unconditionally latch onto his ideas and forecasts, we are being extremely perceptive and smart. However if we don't and tend to believe what many other experts are saying, we are being stupid and ignorant. It seems to me, at the very least, it could be claimed that we are being lead by the nose either way. And at least the other experts don't all seem to be claiming they are irrefutably correct in all they say. My personal bias is to always go with those who know their flaws and weaknesses and operate accordingly. |
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I agree. I'd like to hear just which economic school he belongs to but I wonder if the seed of his problem lies in this telling admission from him:
I never claimed to know everything, just monetary theory economics. |