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Melv
There all liars , they answer to no one , they decide , if there wrong they get away with it , there** . Gordon Brown is an evil , loathsome , dissolusionend , lying piece of filth , 10 years he was chancellor , the so called prudent chancellor who said no more boom or bust , yet he more than played his part of starting the biggest credit bubble ever in this country , now it's bursting he's in denial , notice he keeps saying it's a global problem , trying to pass the blame , all he's thinking about his himself and the next election . Alistair Darling , replaced Brown he must now it's all gone wrong , although Darling is not as evil as Brown he is a weak , inept, useless muppet so there is nothing he can do , Alistair Darling is Gordon Browns fall guy . As my opening post predicted , there will be big falls this year , we have already had 10% , including this 10% i' wouldn't be surprised to see SOLD prices to be down 30% at the end of this year . All the credit that is needed to keep prices at ridiculious levels has been withdrawn as banks prepare for the worst . IT'S OVER . |
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Sorry gordon appaerantly its all the fautl of the credit ratings agencies. Have you no opinion of your own? Today programme stockbroker says " More skeltons in the closet" and cokroaches under the floor boards. The ghost train ride to depression. And they will continue to lay tracks and the sleepers are hallucinations.
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Potlis from politics thread says money leaving stocks and property and going to futures markets.
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Where are all the happy clappers when you need them?
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World markets bounce back. I think i am mad and have got it all wrong but now i paste this from a top yank financial page.
Under Bernankes leadership, the Fed has pumped tens of billions of dollars into the financial system since last summer, repeatedly slashed interest rates and, earlier this week, engineered JPMorgan Chases surprise $2-a-share takeover of the crippled Bear Stearns, which was hit hard by its holdings of subprime-mortgage-backed securities. Despite those actions, the economy has continued to falter - with fewer jobs being created and companies reporting that key credit markets are drying up. American reccession= unemployment here= forced selling. |
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American reccession= unemployment here= forced selling.
Absolutely Melv , thats like my ........ No credit = no market = prices unsustainable at current levels . And who has been supporting this bubble at the bottom , not first time buyers , but speculation by AMATEUR developers , investors , BTL now there all running and trying to sell out as they see there investments fail , but it's to late for most of these amateurs as they see there dreams of property investing turn to dust :^0 On the subject of America , the DOW is the most manipulated index of all , look up "plunge protection team" , in theory the Dow should of tanked months ago with all this credit/sub prime stuff going on but the PPT have engineered a soft landing SO FAR for the Dow . |
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I have got to buy in new area how should offer be 70% of asking price? Cash purchase
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Surty. Why not? Afraid of house being snapped up?
Grey Shark.the PPT have engineered a soft landing SO FAR for the Dow Cool will look up. |
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Please keep an eye raised to the top of tall buildings for two characters who go by the name of shelts and harry crumb. Last seen shouting, "buy buy buy" as the repo men carried them out of their former houses whilst they sat clinging to their former sofas in their underpants.
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LOL Eternal Optimist
An image of shelts and harry crumb thinking of the current mess of the housing market ................................,-~*`lllllll`*~,............................................. ..... ...........................,-~*`lllllllllllllllllllllllllll`*-,.......................................... ......................,-~*llllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll*-,...................................... ..................,-*llllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll.\... .................................. ................;*`lllllllllllllllllllllllllll,-~*~-,llllllllllllllllllll\.................................... ................\lllllllllllllllllllllllllll/...........\;;;;llllllllllll,-`~-,................................ .................\lllllllllllllllllllll,-*.............`~-~-,...(.(`*,`,............................... ...................\llllllllllll,-~*........................)_-\..*`*;..).............................. .....................\,-*`,*`)............,-~*`~................../............................... .....................|/.../.../~,......-~*,-~*`;.................../.\.............................. .................../.../..../..../..,-,..*~,.`*~*..................*...\.......................... ... ...................|.../.../..../.*`...\................................)....)`~,........... ......... ...................|./..../..../........).........)`*~-,............../.....|..)...`~-,.............. .................././.../....,*`-,.....`-,....*`....,---......\...../...../..|..........```*~-,,,, .................(............)`*~-,.....`*`.,-~*.,-*.......|.../..../..../...............\.......... ..................*-,.......`*-,...`~,..``.,,,-*.............|.,*...,*....|.................\......... ......................*,.........`-,....)-,..................,-*`...,-*.....(`-,..............\........ ........................f`-,........`-,/...*-,___,,-~*.....,-*......|....`-,...............\....... |
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Surty
At this time 70% is probably to low at the moment , they won't like it . We are now in the spring bounce period this is the time when the property market does it's best , EXCEPT this year it's one of the probably the spring bounce EVER for the housing market , almost nothing is selling and the banks arn't lending , many EA's and sellers are currently stunnend and in denial of whats happenning to there precious housing market . Try NOT to register or show your face to the EA's in your chosen area , lay low for a while yet , let them suffer and sweat a little more , in 2/3 months time more EA'S and sellers will crawl out of the denial stage and be facing up to the reality that the market is collapsing , then you show your face and they will be crawling all over you :) ............ Try to hold out as long as possible , before you show them your hand ....... |
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From HPC. Daily Mial sayhouse prices fall. How long till critical mass reaches public opinion.
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london housing market still has some support, but the big worry at the moment is new-build flats in city centres such as liverpool, manchester, birmingham and other smaller cities
some reports are showing falls of up to 50% already, basically the market is saturated with these flats, which were very popular with the buy-to-let crowd once the forced selling starts as mortgage funding dries up, who knows how bad things will get |
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What a week to go on holiday!! Knew when I logged on here i would be getting some stick. ..lIt would be nice to hear from others who agree with me but there seem to be few. The credit market is tightening up big time but I can still get great mortgage deals for people. Lnders are manic at the moment . It is taking two weeks for some lenders to look at applications!! I guess this is because there is half the number of mortgage deals and fewer lenders offering them. I still maintain that unless the population panics the market will not crash. However the longer that the media continues to progress down the route they are currently taking the worse it will get!!
Bank of Engalnd does not look like it is going down the route the fed are taking which implies that these "Hidden losses" being touted around by some is in fact lies. I think it is lies.. Only time will tell. Only this week the FSA has investigated share price manipulation by some in the city who spread lies about certain banks begging BOE for help. I must ask if Grey sahrk and Gooseman are among those who believe every conspiracy theory out there!! Things are not that bad over here. THe British housing market and more importantly mortgage market has not and has never been the same as that on offer in the states. I admit to a smaller degree some people who should never have been given mortgages in the first place , are going to be in serious trouble when their juggkling of their finances no longer works, and they are unable to plunder the equity in their property. But the scale of this type of home owner in the uk is nowhere near what it was in the states. Regulation of the mortgage market ensures that the majority of mortgages are affordable. As per my previous posts I agree house prices are dropping. 10% is my estimate. I guess when you take into account inflation that could be the equivalent of a 15% drop in the next year in real terms. What I am saying is that there will not be a crash. There will be some that lose out in a big way because they become deperate to sell. In 6 months to 1 years time I do not want anyone to come on hear and tell me that I was wrong when house pices dip 10%. You can tell me I am wrong when the market has dropped a full 20%. I do not think that this will happen!! Hope to hear from you guys in the next week. I do enjoy the debate an only time will tell who is right an d who is wrong.. Have a good Easter holiday. |
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cheers shelts hope it was a good one
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On radio 4 Today Trevor Willets head economist at Lloyds saya the credit crunch is a good and thing that the mortgage and credit card bubble needs bursting. He says that because fundamentals in the world economy are strong that now is a good time for it to happen. Now the bubble busters are the positive thinkers. And the debt worshipers are the doom and gloom merchants.
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role on financial meltdown and a house price crash
40% drop would be fantastic but would settle for 20% |
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And I have thought for years that our so called "vibrant" economy was based on the farcical property price boom.
Payback time I think. This is going to be a huge mess! |
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NATIONWIDE, Britains biggest building society, has warned that house prices could drop 5% this year because of the credit crunch.
Oh dear. If the turkeys are now voting for Christmas one wonders how far this market is actually going to fall. |
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Shelts, that is the second time you have accused me of believing a 'conspiracy theory'. I wonder if you could explain to me what theory that might be. I trade the short term money markets for a living and can see everything unfolding in front of me every day on my screens. I don't need to believe anybody...I see it myself.
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Shelts , your 21 Mar post , you write .................
As per my previous posts I agree house prices are dropping. 10% is my estimate. I guess take into account inflation that could be the equivalent of a 15% drop in the next year in real terms. What I am saying is that there will not be a crash. When you first posted on this thread you were using the word cooling as to what you thought the market might do , 2 or 3 weeks ago you THEN started saying you expected 10% drops this year , NOW for the first time using the excuse of inflation and now predicting 15% falls this year . Cooling to 15% in about a month is some jump , you getting worried ? You also write ................. I guess this is because there is half the number of mortgage deals and fewer lenders offering them Doesn't this tell you something ?? Many lenders have little money to lend out , they are scared of whats on there books , they don't want new business , most of this business is REmortgaging anyway , NEW MORTGAGES are 50% down from 6 months ago .. You also write................ Bank of Engalnd does not look like it is going down the route the fed are taking . BOE job is to control inflation , the reality is the BOE have lost control. You also write ............. Things are not that bad over here. The British housing market and more importantly mortgage market has not and has never been the same as that on offer in the states. LOL , the UK housing market is in much worse shape than in the states , our sub prime bomb is yet to go off , but is about too , i'll give you a list of UK sub prime if you want . You also write ............. Regulation of the mortgage market ensures that the majority of mortgages are affordable. You fool , there has been NO REGULATION these last few years , thats why everything became so UNaffordable and it all got out of control , anyone could up until 6 months ago get a mega mortgage no questions asked . Finally , what are these conspiracy stories i and others are supposed to believe ?? |
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House prices need to drop to a level where first time buyers can access the UK's housing stock. I would estimate that a reduction of 40% is needed to get housing down to affordable levels for first time buyers. However markets are not all about fundamentals, but also momentum & it is likely that house prices will more than half in price from late 2007 numbers before we are finished.
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Gooseman. You buying the market up today. Getting involved with all those lovely Financials!! I am , so hope you are doing as well as me!! Happy days are here again...
arent they?? |
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that's called being facetious mate-sell into this rally. i'm not buying anything apart from short sterling ;-)
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Grey Shark. I agree with all your points. Very well put . Dont agree with you about the chances of a sub prime meltdown in the UK. The mortgage market is regulated over here . I agree that a few of those who took these types of mortgages will definately struggle but in general provided they are sensible they will have a chance. Dont agree with a few of your points as you know but must admit to beng a little less optimistic than I was at the start of this thread!!
Unsecured borrowing is the next big issue. I have a client who earns 20000 who has 5 credit cards with a credit limit totalling over 60000. He built up a debt of about 35000!!! Surely this is worse than a mortgage company that lends its customer 5 times therir salary. The time is approaching where mortgage companies will not allow clients to remortgage for debt consolidation. |
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Grey Shark. I agree with all your points. Very well put . Dont agree with you about the chances of a sub prime meltdown in the UK. The mortgage market is regulated over here . I agree that a few of those who took these types of mortgages will definately struggle but in general provided they are sensible they will have a chance. Dont agree with a few of your points as you know but must admit to beng a little less optimistic than I was at the start of this thread!!
At first you agree with all my points , then you don't agree , then you agree again then you don't agree again , LOL . Do you agree that you don't really know what your talking about ?? The UK housing market reeks of subprime , it's in every town and city the stench of sub prime UK style is overwhelming . When Northern Rock was spiralling out of control where was the regulation then ? Your client with the 5 cards and large debts , just the sort of credit slave to keep this whole debt sham going , soon he'll be busted , broke and bankrupt , but before this credit junkie finally bites the dust i'm sure you the debt pedlar can screw that last bit of commision out of him ;) |
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Shelts, let's put some meat on the bones of this argument - mortgage equity withdrawal has been adding about 6% to people's disposable income, that's 4% of GDP. MEW withdrawal will probably drop to zero by the end of 2008. That's 4% of GDP gone in 12 months. Mortgage advisers, estate agents, removal firms, surveyors, & property developers are all in for a lean time further denting GDP.
20000 people in the city will probably get their P 45's over the next 18 months. Hundreds of thousands of civil servants are going to see their disposable incomes drop over the next 36 months due to pay deals well below the real rate of inflation. UK exporters reliant on the US markets are going to see their order books fall & will lay off workers accordingly. We are running a budget deficit of 3% of GDP, a current account deficit of 5% of GDP. Inflation is taking hold in the world & could be further exacerbated in the UK by a falling pound. The Bank of England will have no choice but to defend the pound & raise interest rates accordingly. Interest rates of 7 or 8% may be just round the corner & although ugly they would be far better than a similar inflation rate. If you think that interest rates this high are a thing of the past in the modern industrialized world then I suggest you check out what is happening in Australia at the moment. We have 2.5 million people in this country permanently sat on their backsides on incapacity benefit, 100,000 people locked up & over a 1000 billion pounds worth of unfunded public sector pension commitments on the books. On top of this the Government have just spent over a 100 billion pounds buying a UK mortgage lender who was making most of the loans right at the top of the market. In the last few years we have also become a net importer of oil as the North Sea Oil reserves start to falter. To conclude, we are**ged. |
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Shelts, let's put some meat on the bones of this argument - mortgage equity withdrawal has been adding about 6% to people's disposable income, that's 4% of GDP. MEW withdrawal will probably drop to zero by the end of 2008. That's 4% of GDP gone in 12 months. Mortgage advisers, estate agents, removal firms, surveyors, & property developers are all in for a lean time further denting GDP.
20000 people in the city will probably get their P 45's over the next 18 months. Hundreds of thousands of civil servants are going to see their disposable incomes drop over the next 36 months due to pay deals well below the real rate of inflation. UK exporters reliant on the US markets are going to see their order books fall & will lay off workers accordingly. We are running a budget deficit of 3% of GDP, a current account deficit of 5% of GDP. Inflation is taking hold in the world & could be further exacerbated in the UK by a falling pound. The Bank of England will have no choice but to defend the pound & raise interest rates accordingly. Interest rates of 7 or 8% may be just round the corner & although ugly they would be far better than a similar inflation rate. If you think that interest rates this high are a thing of the past in the modern industrialized world then I suggest you check out what is happening in Australia at the moment. We have 2.5 million people in this country permanently sat on their backsides on incapacity benefit, 100,000 people locked up & over a 1000 billion pounds worth of unfunded public sector pension commitments on the books. On top of this the Government have just spent over a 100 billion pounds buying a UK mortgage lender who was making most of the loans right at the top of the market. In the last few years we have also become a net importer of oil as the North Sea Oil reserves start to falter. To conclude, we are in the mire. |
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US house prices drop 10% in january alone.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article3621580.ece Bring it on here. |
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that actually means in the year to january. journalists are always lazy when it comes to reporting on statisitical reports.
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statistical!
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Grey Shark, I believe it is you who does not know what he is talking about. Throughout this thread I have been constant with my beliefs and faith in common sense. I know for a fact that most people are able to afford their mortgages . There is not a sub prim emortgage meltdown coming provided Interest rates stay at sensible levels. I can see no evidence suggesting that Interest rates are going to rise. Inflation is only part of the equation and as mentioned earlier I no longer believe that the Government and Bank of England are as committed to the 2% Inflation target as they were a year ago. Other issue have become more important namely the growth and continued well being of the economy.Keeping people in jobs and encouraging investment. Hence Interest rates will fall during 2008.
Admittedly in my last post I said I agreed with all of your points. I actually agreed with all of them bar one. .. Sorry for the error!! I think where we disagree is the actual affect all of these issues you mentioned will have on the housing market. |
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Grey Shark, I believe it is you who does not know what he is talking about. Throughout this thread I have been constant with my beliefs and faith in common sense.
Trust me shelts , you don't know what your talking about ;) Far far to many examples for me to be bothered to bring up again. Now read this slowly ........i think where the root of your failure to see the mess it's all in is because your a vested interest , meaning you have been on the INSIDE of the housing market for far to long and think everything is fine and will carry on this way with at worst a few minor blips along the way , where as most contributors to this thread are not VI's and can see the bigger picture from the OUTSIDE and see the housing market for the bloated , over priced , social damaging , debt fuelled scam that it is . You are either in denial of whats happening and going to happen or you are oblivious to it , i suspect your a combination of the two . |
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Shelts , don't forget Uptheowls post above ..
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Shelts - so you want the BOE to keep offering taxpayers money to the banks at say 5%, so that they can then lend it back to the taxpayer at 6% & reduce interest rates to encourage people to borrow more which will actually buy them less due to the inflationary effect this will have by devaluing the pound. Is this your plan?
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Shelts - also on inflation please note the following increases in commodity prices over the last 12 months:-
Chrome - 400% Silicon - 40% Manganese - 150% Iron Ore - 72% Coking Coal - 200% Wheat - 90% Soy Beans - 80% & then of course there is oil & gas. We import all of the above. These are mainly dollar demominated commodities. If we don't defend the pound against the dollar inflation will kill us. |
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Moneynet survey published today:-
Key highlights of the survey are as follows; Nearly 35% of borrowers are struggling with mortgage debts of more than three times annual salary. Nearly 30% of people are unsure whether they would be able to provide evidence of sufficient income to support their mortgage. 47% of people surveyed are currently on a fixed or discounted rate and of these over 55% come to the end of their existing deal either this year or next. 17% of respondents have a history of adverse credit (i.e. missed payments, arrears, ccj's etc). Nearly 30% have mortgage debt of more than 80% of the property's value and nearly 4% have already borrowed more than 100%. Nearly 10% fear that they are in danger of missing mortgage payments in the next 12 months. 22% would resort to borrowing on credit cards or personal loans in order to maintain their mortgage payments. |
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Just spoke to my [selling] estate agent on the phone. He was surprisingly frank & said that activity is basically non-existent.
Good news is that there aren't many properties flooding onto the market, but bad news is that the buyer registrations are lower for this period that he can ever remember. Still plenty of viewings, but no offers. Last comment was that if things have not improved by mid-April, then it could be a horrible year to be an agent. |
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So...THE AVERAGE HOUSE PRICE WILL FALL FROM 196,000 to 165,000 by December 2010...
This is the average, if you believe they will not fall this much, then why not make a fortune buying the spreads as they predict this... I have just bought a house and am seriously worried, considering I did not choose to buy at this time, it was just bad timing & I you can be pretty sure it wont be worth any more in 5 years time & will probably be a lot less (& inflation will make that even worse)... |
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http://www.fairinvestment.co.uk/mortgages-news-Unrealistic-house-prices-fuel-slump-in-housing-market-1294.html
Latest RightMove report. |