Sharky

Seems your personal jibes and inability to respect anyone elses opinion is being found out. Some of us are able to have a sensible debate and acknowledge the fact that there could actually be more than one result!! I have admitted that I may well get things wrong!

The fact is that you are still renting and have not bought a home. The fact that you say house prices are at 2005 levels despite massive inflation suggests that homes may not be in for such a big fall after all.Banks in the UK have 8% cash reserves and the Basel treaty frio Sundat expects just 4% withg 3% reserve. All British banks have a healthy balance sheet , suggesting that they may well be about to start lending again. Barclays has 13%!!

I (me) (myself) am simply defending my self against your constant personal attacks. Not all Financial Advisers are the same, just liek all policeman arent the same, and all teachers are not the same, and of course all Internet gamblers are not the same.   Good luck to you! You had the balls to put your money where your mouth is and actually sell your home a few year back. I repect you for that. I also respect your opinion but shall we just agree to disagree and stop getting personal! Hopw many times UTI posts on any forum has nothing to do with you or anyone else has it?
I notice that UTI suggests you are a little out of order and You attack him also.. Why do you feel that you have to do that?

I'm not so sure that lending will resume "normal service" anytime soon.  Bond yields spreads on Greek and Irish sovereign debt -over German- are back up to peak levels and Spanish debt isn't far behind.  With even the slight risk that the world is about to see a sovereign debt crisis the banks are unlikely to take the brakes off even with interest rates as low as they are.

Chisel is of course right we do normal talk nominally when we take off the 14% or so CPI inflation that has occurred in the last 5 years that house in those prices Sharky gives they should read

Sep 05 £168,299

Jul 10 £146,864

So in real terms house prices are 13% down on where they were five years ago and massively down on peak.  Big regional differences though.

I still think there is froth in the market that will unwind over the next few years but with inflation ticking along at 3% and rpi at 5% maybe the falls will be more real than nominal.  I actually believe this is a deliberate policy of the BoE.  Inflation is good for indebted countries as long as it doesn't get out of control.

all the housing experts on tv today say the reason for the fall in house prices was due to oversupply and underdemand,a 4 yr old could have told us this

Who knows Potlis.. Did I really write that I respect his opinion?  It actually appears I did. Just shows how you can get carried away posting on these forums!! 

It is good to be humble sometimes right?

The most recent quarterly fall in house prices in northen ireland would even have been worse. But an auction sale of 300 houses were not included in statistics of the 800 properties sold during this period from which figures were calculated.

These 300 houses were sold for approx £30,000 each. They were all houses on a development which was previously used by to house British soldiers. Three years ago mugs were buying similar ex council style 1970's houses for £140,000.

potlis Joined: 21 Jul 02
Replies: 591 06 Sep 10 09:15   
chisel Joined: 19 Sep 08
Replies: 1525 05 Mar 10 08:52   


3 month sincluding the one just passed. Pesonally I do not think we will see two consecutive falls but just covering my arse. If pices fall 3 months in a row with record low interest rates then we are in more trouble than I imagined

Just one month to go then!

Oh dear Potlis, looks like house prices actually increased again by 0.1% ..It doesnt look like I am going to be made to eat my words just yet!!  House prices are stabilising. As predicted, we are not going to see much in teh way of increases and more importantly falls.. Maybe this is why mortgage deals are becoming cheaper by the day!  Are the banks starting to wonder what they are going to do with their money??

JML
Did you used to post on this forum under another user name [;)]

The mortgage drought which is crippling homebuyers could get even worse, one of Britain’s most powerful bankers warned yesterday.

Funding, the money which banks need to lend money, ‘will be more scarce and probably more expensive’, predicts Barclays president Bob Diamond


The president of Barclays sees things differently to
the office junior from Bognor.

What do people think that house prices will be, relative to right now, by the end of 2011?

I reckon down 5%.  I hope to buy a place in the next 6 months, would be surprised if they went down 10% from what they arenow.

Seems you all missing the current news
Interest only mortgages are going to be extinct from now on

Only repayment mortgages gonna be granted
The end of the housing boom is nigh ,for a very long TIME

ROBIN:

I'm thinking of buying a flat for 80k, with perhaps 15k deposit and 65k mortgage.  I'm hoping to do it in 10 years which means 700 per month approx.  After one year i've probably paid for 5k of that mortgage outright, which means I have 20k equity (presuming the price stays the same) a 5k profit, which has to be better than renting where I just lose £6k/year (currently paying £500.month)

It already happens. Housing benefit is paid to claimant who can then go and renta  property from the landlord. Many landlords do not accept people that receive housing benefit for that very reason


If your buying to live in I would hold off. much better to be a renter at the moment.whats the point paying interest on a loan for an asset thats not going to go up. For example the house I live in is worth 240k. with a 25% deposit its going to cost me say 1800 a month, at the moment im paying 800 in rent. doesnt take much working out to see Im better off. tho I do own a property I rent out.

What a ridiculous statement! Interest on a mortgage of £180k is only going to cost you£525 per month. any extra you pay comes off the balance in Capital. And that is at a rate of 3.5% . You can get a lot cheaper than that. Please at least do some homework before making outrageous claims. As the interest is just £525 and teh rent £850, I would suggest that buying is better, as long as you buy a property at the right price.. This is a buyers market, which is why prices are unlikley to be any higher in 12 months time than now.

I did predict that rates would stay low for this long, I now predict that they will probably be the same level as now this time next year... In fact , I will predict that they will be the same level in 2014.

Yep, I really think that rates should actually have increased by now, and that the longer they leave it, the more difficult it will prove to be. Japan has cut rates again, and injected tillions of yen into the economy. US is likely to do the same,soon in a desperate attempt to stop the recovery faltering. THe Eurozone is in absolute turmoil, Germany is singlehandedlyensuring growth againt a background of economies with low populations and enormous debt.

The UK is doing Ok at the moment, but BOE is staggered that people are not spending their cash, and are instead paying off loans, crtedit cards and mortgages. The governemnt is about to grab the spare cash from us in tax rises, VAT , Child Benefit grabs etc, and this time next year we wil lprobably be seeing the economy falter. If rates have not increased by this time we may have a another 2 years of Interest rates at this level, as I believe even if rates increase they will need to be quickly reduced again. This economy is very delicately balanced, and despite a very good August and September, I am finding that things are starting to go VERY quiet again. My estate agents are finding it very difficult at the moment
Banks are making fortunes, but are very unlikely to lend the money they have out at hogher loan to values. Unles s the governemnt finds a way of penalising the banks they will keep hold of their cash. Finally, everything that is going on at the moment is deflationary. Peopel are continuing to stash their cash, in an attempt to reduce teh future risk of job losses, higher interest rates etc

the idea that government pays housing benefit at all is ridiculous imo.

Interest on a mortgage of £180k is only going to cost you£525 per month. any extra you pay comes off the balance in Capital. And that is at a rate of 3.5%

please explain your maths here chisel.

Charlatan

The Interest paid is what you need to compare to renting, as any money you pay off teh mortgage effectively becomes equity . Obviously if prices are falling this is not a good thing, however , if prices stay the same. Interest Only on a mortgage of 180000 at 3.5% (and you can get better) will cost you just £525.

In ten year time renting will inevitably cost more than it does now.. Will house prices be lower in 10 years than they are today?

More importantly though as RT points out the Halifax index is down 3.6% in September.

Chisel's maths might be correct but he doesn't take into account
the £60K spent.

He also fails to take into account the extra expenses involved
in bying.

Also the 3.5% intrest rates will only apply for a short time.

Didn't they revise last months down as well?, BOE may need to slash rates today, to steady the ship!!, oops already done that.

otoh this isn't

In ten year time renting will inevitably cost more than it does now.. Will house prices be lower in 10 years than they are today?

it might well not do so. they might not be. see japan. compare US prices with five years ago. will they have recovered in five years time?