TimeformBlog

Timeform have identified three hurdlers who should more than pay their way this season, including a promising sort from the Nicholls yard who won at Exeter on Tuesday...


There were plenty of eye-catchers on the Saturday of Cheltenham's Showcase meeting, but one that has hopefully slipped under the radar was that of Tom George's Secret Tune, who finished eighth behind Russian War in the two-and-a-half mile handicap hurdle. A strong-travelling sort, Secret Tune has run over a trip beyond his optimum the last twice and appeals very much as one to back when getting another chance over shorter. Sent off at 14/1 (Betfair SP 20.0) under Paddy Brennan at Cheltenham, Secret Tune was still holding a narrow lead and going as well as anything when jumping right two out but ran out of steam up the hill, having every chance at the last before weakening markedly. Secret Tune went winless in 2009/10 but is handicapped to put that record right..

Emma Lavelle's Heez A Cracker won't have escaped the attention of many at Kempton on Sunday, looking promising when winning the extended two-and-a-half mile novice hurdle by a length and a half from the gambled-on Jay J, but he'll pay his was this season nevertheless. Heez A Cracker was gaining in experience in three runs that didn't come close to getting to the bottom of him last season, but he's all set to show the benefit now, as for all he didn't need to improve to make a winning return in what was admittedly a weak race, he did it with plenty to spare, travelling strongly and merely nudged out to assert. A close relation to the same stable's high-class hurdler Crack Away Jack, Heez A Cracker has the potential to win plenty of races this season.

All eyes at Exeter on Tuesday were on Paul Nicholls' high-class hurdler Celestial Halo (runner-up in the 2008/9 Champion), who was making his long-awaited debut over fences. Whilst that didn't go according to plan, Celestial Halo (now available to back at 17.0 for the Arkle) largely jumping well and travelling best until reaching for the fourth last and coming down, the champion trainer's Garton King had got the day off to a flyer as he defeated stablemate Royal Collonges by four lengths in the opening amateurs novice hurdle. Unbeaten in three starts in points, Garton King was easy to back but created a big impression nonetheless, racing a bit freely without cover yet having more than enough in reserve to master a couple of more established types in the straight, his jumping proving an asset. He's sure to do better over fences in the long run, a brother to useful chaser Toby Jug, but there are more races to be won with him over hurdles first.

So You Think became the youngest horse in the history to win back to back in Australia's premier weight for age classic and give legendary trainer Bart ****s, now 82 his fifth win in the race.

So You Think joins an elite group of Australian equine stars to have won two Cox Plates and is Bart's first to achieve the feat. In fact he could stay in training to emulate the mighty Kingston Town's three consecutive Cox Plate victories (1980-1982) - the only horse to do so.

However as impressive as So You Think was, it is important to keep all the factors in perspective.

In Australia, we have very few horses that can reach a Timeform rating of 130 or above, and then reproduce it afterwards. In the past 25 years we have had many reach a 129 ceiling such as Makybe Diva, Northerly and Sunline to name a few but just the very best performers will produce performances above that level.

Weekend Hussler was the most recent case in point when as a three-year-old he demolished a good field in the 2008 Group 1 George Ryder Stakes at Rosehill. Unfortunately injury and other factors intervened and he did not reproduce the merit of that effort again. Other recent past greats such as Better Loosen Up and Might And Power could perform at 130 and above multiple times during their respective careers.

And that is just what So You Think is doing that captures the imagination of the racing fraternity - a good horse backing up, winning at each start with each performance better than the last. Of course horses are not machines and this trend cannot be continued, you can only go to the well so many times.

Even the great Sea The Stars' Timeform rating bounced around during his illustrious, but short career, clearly showing just how hard it is to perform every time at the elite level.

Clearly the other factor that comes into play is the dynamics of each race. Not all races are the same contest. Varying metrics such as opposition, distance, pace, course, race tactics, state of track are just a few variables that influence the performance of racehorses.

Australia's latest track sensation So You Think has a few of these variables covered off before he steps out in any race because of his adaptability in the way he races - a trait not uncommon to champion racehorses.The very best can and do overcome adversities in races that prove giant obstacles for lesser performed animals.

Being trackside on Saturday to watch So You Think was a wonderful experience. Anyone who says good horses don't make racing obviously have not been to such an event. As soon as So You Think came onto the track, the public of 31,000 plus applauded and of course the cheering started as soon as he kicked away in the home straight and grew even louder when he returned to scale.

So You Think was again dominant last Saturday. All fears about how the race would play against him were out the door after 100m when Nash Rawiller took More Joyous straight to the lead in what was clearly a well thought out pre-race plan, with So You Think settling just behind her.

The early pace was leisurely, but as is often the case with this horse, he started to apply the pressure at the 800m. More Joyous was immediately struggling to keep up and at the same point the entire field came off the bit chasing.

Rounding the home turn, So You Think was off and gone by three lengths and although runner-up Zipping and third placed Whobegotyou took ground off him in the closing stages, the race was well and truly in his keeping, eased down to win by over a length.

Like so many victories by class horses, the winning margin is not always the measure of a dominant performance. It is more the way these horses execute the victory by applying pressure and simply grinding their opponents into submission.

In that regard So You Think reminds me a lot of Might And Power and to a lesser extent Sunline. Their opponents were always under enormous pressure to pull ground off them once in the straight because a lot of the damage had been done before that point.

Saturday's Cox Plate field comprised eight individual Group 1 winners who collectively had nineteen wins at the elite level between them.

The analysis of the Cox Plate has revealed a Timeform rating of 132 for So You Think, a figure backed up primarily by the merit of the contributing horses plus historical race standardisation techniques.

The only horse in that block to race above merit was Zipping who increased his rating from 126 to 129?

Occasionally horses put in a "one off" extraordinary performance at all levels of racing eg from maidens to Group 1, that rates above their normal level and while this certainly appears the case with Zipping, the run rating will be questioned until the horse races again. A study of Zipping's last twelve months racing and in particular his ratings profile at 2000m and beyond reveals a steady rise in his ratings profile. This is most unusual for a nine-year-old but at the same time something that cannot be ignored.

The overall race time of 2.07:45 was not fast, in fact it is at the higher end of the slowest Cox Plate race times, however So You Think's closing sectionals were outstanding.

So You Think has covered the last 600m in an amazing 34.92 seconds compared to the last 600m by crack sprinting mare Black Caviar of 35.26 seconds in winning the 1200m Group 2 Schweppes Stakes by a comfortable 5.5 lengths earlier in the afternoon.

It was interesting to hear trainer Bart ****s' comment he felt So You Think did not like the whip, that probably explained why he tended to come back to the field in the closing stages.

Comparisons still abound as to where So You Think ranks in Bart's long line of many champions he has prepared in a training career spanning close to sixty years.

As we pointed out in an article last week, our calculations reveal his great stayer Gailiee with a Timeform rating of 134 as the best horse Bart has prepared - a fact Bart himself recognised with the quote; "They (So You Think and Galilee) are getting closer, maybe they will dead heat shortly."

At this stage, So You Think will race next Saturday in the Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes (2000m) at Flemington then step out in the 150th Melbourne Cup next Tuesday over 3200m.

Those two assignments, if completed in the affirmative, may well result in the dead heat Bart suggested!

By Gary Crispe

The weekend's racing offered the best of both the Flat and NH games, with Casamento stating his classic case with a win in the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy on the Flat at Doncaster, while over jumps there were wins at Aintree for Monet's Garden as well as a pair of promising novices who took their first steps on the road to Cheltenham...


Saturday's best NH race was the Old Roan Chase at Aintree, won for the third time in its seven-year history by Monet's Garden, who confirmed himself at least as good as ever, even at twelve years old, in beating Poquelin by half a length in typically game fashion. One of the more interesting subplots at Aintree on Saturday was the chasing debut of the current Arkle favourite Medermit. In a three-runner affair, Medermit hit a couple of fences, but impressed with the accuracy of his jumping on the whole, given that the Aintree fences can be a demanding test for a novice. The form of the race is only fairly useful in the grand scheme of things, but Medermit is plainly open to stacks of improvement over fences judged on what he was capable of over timber and it's easy to see why he is currently available to back at 12.5 for the Arkle.

Medermit wasn't the only ante-post favourite for a championship novice event on show at Aintree over the weekend, as on Sunday the 2009 Champion Bumper winner Cue Card made a tremendously impressive hurdling debut. Racing against seven others, Cue Card failed to settle for much of what was a steadily-run affair, but it made no difference as he didn't have to come off the bridle to win by thirteen lengths. Cue Card will reportedly step up in grade now, either around two and a half miles or back at the minimum trip, while looking further ahead, connections have the choice of either the Supreme or the Baring Bingham at the Cheltenham Festival. Cue Card is the ante-post favourite for both races, currently available to back at 6.6 for the former and 12.5 for the latter.

The feature on the Flat at Doncaster on Saturday was the Racing Post Trophy, which went the way of the favourite Casamento, who provided his trainer Michael Halford with the first Group 1 win of his career. Casamento didn't need to improve much, if at all, on the form he had already shown in Ireland, but all the same he got the job done in workmanlike fashion and cemented his classic claims for 2011. Casamento, who now joins Godolphin, is currently second favourite to Frankel for both the 2000 Guineas, for which he is a 15.5 shot, and the Derby, for which he can currently be backed at 12.0, though his pedigree and racing style offer slightly conflicting views as to what might be his optimum distance as a three-year-old. One for whom there is little doubt as to his optimum trip next year is the runner-up Seville, who confirmed himself a good middle-distance prospect for 2011, off the bridle sooner than most but responding all the while and briefly looking like getting past Casamento. He can now be backed at 15.0 for the Derby, third favourite behind Frankel and Casamento.

There was also pattern racing at Newbury on Saturday, where Jane Chapple-Hyam's Hong Kong-bound two-year-old colt Klammer won the Group 3 Horris Hill Stakes on what was reportedly his final British start. Klammer's victory provided a boost to the form of Frankel, who had beaten him by ten lengths in the Royal Lodge at Ascot in September. The other Group 3 on the card at Newbury was the mile-and-a-half St Simon Stakes, in which Clowance defied a six-month absence to provide Richard Hughes with one of his two winners on a day on which title-rival Paul Hanagan drew a blank.

The highest profile event next week takes place over jumps at Wetherby, but there is plenty of other good racing, including Newmarket's final Flat meeting of 2010 as well of the return of NH action to Ascot...


Sunday October 24

There are five NH meetings set to take place in Britain and Ireland on Sunday, the best of which is at Aintree, where Champion Bumper winner Cue Card is reportedly set to make his hurdling debut in the two-and-a-half mile novice at 16:30.

Monday October 25

There is Group 3 action for juveniles at Leopardstown in the shape of the Killavullan Stakes (14:25) over seven furlongs, which threw up successive classic winners in 2003 and 2004 courtesy of Grey Swallow and Footstepsinthesand.


Thursday October 28

Lingfield stages one of its better midweek cards of the year on the Thursday, with two listed events for fillies set to take place, namely the Fleur de Lys Stakes (15:40) over a mile and the River Eden Stakes (16:10) over a mile and five furlongs.


Friday October 29

Newmarket's penultimate raceday of the year kicks off on Friday with the six-furlong Bosra Sham Fillies' Stakes (15:00) for two-year-olds, while the card also features a couple of maidens which are normally full of potential winners for the next season.

There is also a good jumps card at Wetherby, where both the handicap chase at 15:20 and the juvenile hurdle at 15:55 hold listed status


Saturday October 30

Newmarket shuts down for the year with a card that features three listed events, the most notable of which is perhaps the Montrose Stakes (15:10) over a mile for juvenile fillies, which has thrown up the odds Oaks contender over the years, both Passage of Time and Timepiece featuring prominently in the betting for that race after their wins in the Montrose.

It is over jumps that the day's most interesting fare takes place however, with the highlight being the Grade 2 Charlie Hall Chase (15:25) at Wetherby. Nigel Twiston-Davies' veteran Ollie Magern is bidding for his third success in the race, having run in it five times, though he will face stiff competition from the younger guard, which is likely to include last season's smart novices Knockara Beau and China Rock. The other Grade 2 event on the card is the West Yorkshire Hurdle (14:50) over an extended three miles, in which Philip Hobbs's Fair Along is set to line up in an attempt to win the race for the second year running.

Competitive handicaps are the order of the day over jumps at Ascot, a trio of such events set to take place, the most valuable of which is the three-mile United House Gold Cup (15:40).