TimeformBlog

The Christmas Hurdle has been dominated in recent years by the Irish, who have sent over Harchibald (2004 & 2008), Feathard Lady (2005), Jazz Messenger (2006) and Go Native (2009) in the last six years. The Irish monopoly has been broken in that time only by Nick Gifford's Straw Bear in 2007, though even that could be seen as an Irish success, with Straw Bear carrying the colours of legendary owner J. P McManus.

McManus also owns Champion Hurdler Binocular, who currently trades at 5.5 to defend his Cheltenham crown. Nicky Henderson's stable star could manage only third behind Go Native when sent off favourite for the Christmas Hurdle last season, having had a similar preparation as he has this time (on both occasions not at his best in the Fighting Fifth), and is 2.92 to win at Kempton on Saturday.

Binocular didn't look fully wound up before the rearranged Fighting Fifth at Newbury (moved from Newcastle) last time and shaped accordingly, travelling strongly but having no more to give after getting upsides at the last, beaten over 7 lengths in to third behind Peddlers Cross. Seven weeks will have passed between Newbury and Kempton, and whilst Binocular is the best horse in the race on Saturday, he isn't necessarily the best bet at the odds.

Starluck finished second in last season's Christmas Hurdle, beaten just a short head by Go Native, and is 3.6 to go one better on Saturday. Although the feeling at Kempton was that Starluck was flattered by his defeat of Binocular and he duly failed to confirm placings in the Champion at Cheltenham, the uphill finish was against Starluck at the Festival and a Flat track does seem to suit him much better. With that in mind, his price looks fair, having again finished in front of Binocular when second to Peddlers Cross in the Fighting Fifth at Newbury last time.

That pair are likely to be held up, as will Nigel Twiston-Davies' Khyber Kim, who staged a revival last season. Having lost his way for Nicky Henderson, Khyber Kim bounced back in 2009/10 to win the Greatwood and the International at Cheltenham prior to going down by 3½ lengths to Binocular in the Champion there in March. Khyber Kim showed there was no fluke about that form when winning at Aintree the following month, and he's got a good record when fresh, so the fact that he will be making his reappearance is no negative.

Donald McCain's Overturn should get the run of the race in front, but he's still got to prove he's got what it takes at the top table. Admittedly, Overturn has done nothing but progress, winning the Galway Hurdle in the summer on the back of his second in a strong Swinton at Haydock (and a win in the Northumberland Plate back on the Flat), but Grade 1s are very different to handicaps.

In summary, there's no doubt that Binocular is the best horse in the race, but there are enough doubts about him to take him on at the price and the one who fits the bill is Khyber Kim.

Recommendation

Back Khyber Kim @ 4.2 in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton

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It doesn't take a great racing mind to work out that any King George discussion must centre around Kauto Star. Even the majority of the lads in Timeform House have solved that one.

In short, Kauto Star has made the King George his own this century. In 2009, he became the first horse in history to win the race for the fourth year in succession, matching Desert Orchid as the only quadruple winner of the Christmas showpiece. A year on, and the seemingly ageless Kauto Star seeks to eclipse racing's most famous front-running grey.

Current odds imply it's almost a 50-50 call, but it's hard to suggest the likelihood of another success for 'Kauto' isn't more like 65-35. It's certainly difficult to imagine Kauto Star not starting closer to 1.6 than 2.0.

Kauto's detractors might well point to the frailties in the form of his winning return, but it's doubtful there's any validity in such analysis. Granted, a four-length defeat of Sizing Europe wasn't Kauto at his peak, but he still did all that was required and even that form gives him an edge on most of his likely rivals. In addition, Kauto Star hasn't been able (or required) to run to his outstanding best first time back since, probably, 2006.

It's hard to comprehend, but Kauto Star's latest King George success, which staggeringly saw him pull a distance clear of a good field, was better than anything he'd done before and, to give it historical context, represented the best performance ratings-wise by any horse on Timeform figures since all-time National Hunt greats Arkle and Mill House.

One is therefore left wondering if there's any point trying to get him beaten, and I would certainly far rather back than lay him, but the punter within also craves a more exotic approach, which brings us the way of the 'without Kauto' market currently available on Betfair.

Long Run currently heads the betting, but quite why he's around half the price of everything else is hard to fathom. Yes, he was impressive when winning the Feltham here as a novice, but his third in the Paddy Power first time out still leaves him with work to do against some of these and he's no value whatsoever on form. It'd be easy to become tired with the hitherto unjustified hype surrounding Long Run if it wasn't for the fact he's making the market for others yet again.

Nicky Henderson's second possible representative, Riverside Theatre, hasn't done enough to justify his current price, either, while Forpadydeplasterer has question marks hanging over his resolution and is unproven at the trip, so better cases on value grounds can be made for Nacarat and Albertas Run.

Nacarat is no Kauto Star, but his own Kempton record is hard to fault; he's been first and second in the last two runnings of the Racing Post Chase, while he shaped second best prior to fading into fourth in last season's King George. Granted less competition for the lead, he's sure to be thereabouts, as is Albertas Run if he can put his latest Ascot fall behind him and handle conditions. Albertas Run confirmed himself a top-class chaser in winning the Ryanair and the Maghull on his last two starts in 2009/10, and his current price is simply too big considering as well he was runner-up to Kauto Star in the race in 2008.

Let's hope it's worth the wait. It really should be.

Recommendations

Back Kauto Star @ 1.8
Back Nacarat in the 'W/O Kauto' market @ 7.2
Back Albertas Run in the 'W/O Kauto' market @ 20.0

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What's that old adage about London buses? Having waited nine years since Dubai Millennium (and fourteen before that since Dancing Brave in 1986) for another horse to be rated 140, Sea The Stars in 2009 was quickly followed by record-margin King George winner Harbinger.

Both Sea The Stars and Harbinger were unbeaten throughout their triumphant season. Sea The Stars was successful at the top level in each month between May and October, starting out in the 2000 Guineas and completing his epic campaign with a breathtaking victory in the Arc. Harbinger, who was four when going through his admittedly prematurely curtailed season, benefited from the renowned patient approach adopted by Sir Michael Stoute and improved with each outing. Harbinger hinted at what he may be capable of when stringing out his Hardwicke field on this third outing in 2010, but that proved just a taster for what was to come in the King George.

Starting second favourite to his Derby winning stablemate Workforce (we'll come back to him in a minute), Harbinger produced a flawless display at Ascot, everything coming easily to him as he cruised to the front before drawing clear to win by a record margin of 11 lengths, an effort backed up by the clock (produced a timefigure of 135). Sadly, that was the last we got to see of Harbinger, as he fractured a cannon bone on the gallops when being prepared for a tilt at the Juddmonte International. Although Harbinger failed to capture the imagination of the racing press or the general public as Sea The Stars had before him, at Timeform we have no doubt that Harbinger was a truly outstanding racehorse in 2010. It's a real shame we didn't get to see more of him.

Like Sea The Stars in 2009, Harbinger stands tall above his contemporaries. Harbinger is rated 7 lb ahead of his stablemate Workforce, who himself had an excellent year.

Viewing Workforce in the context of when the pair met in the King George is a gross misrepresentation. The real Workforce was the one we saw win the Derby at Epsom by 7 lengths (smashed the course record) and the one that bounced back from his horror showing at Ascot to provide Sir Michael Stoute with a first Arc win. Workforce's victory at Longchamp was gained in very different style to that of his Derby success, sweeping through and then having to battle to hold off Nakayama Festa, who emulated fellow Japanese raider El Condor Pasa who finished second in Montjeu's Arc in 1999 and went a place better than subsequently-disqualified Deep Impact in 2006. Workforce is to be kept in training and will surely be given the chance to atone for his King George flop -we anticipate him making into a top-notch 4-y-o.

Cape Blanco's form ties in with Harbinger and Workforce. He beat Workforce to win the Dante and, after flopping in the French Derby, bounced back to win the Irish Derby before his good second in the King George. However it was in the Irish Champion Stakes that he put up his top-class effort, soon clear but setting a searching pace and in no way flattered as Rip Van Winkle and Twice Over failed to challenge him. He gave the impression that hard race had left a mark when disappointing back in France in the Arc.

Rip Van Winkle and Fame And Glory might have been expected to have an easier time of things in 2010 without Sea The Stars around. However, after a delayed reappearance, Rip Van Winkle didn't seem to recapture the best of his 3-y-o form and gained just a Juddmonte International victory from five outings at the top level. Fame And Glory managed to put up top-class performances in the Tattersalls Gold Cup and Coronation Cup but, after a mid-season break his campaign ended on bit of a low note, when just fifth having been hampered in the Arc. Fame And Glory will stay in training in a bid to give Aidan O'Brien his first success in that race.

Twice Over very much lived up to his name with a Group 1 double courtesy of a sub-standard Eclipse and a repeat win in the Champion Stakes, and he's likely to have a hat-trick bid for the latter as his big end-of-season target in 2011 at the revamped meeting that has been switched to Ascot.

If there is a lurker amongst the top middle-distance horses of 2011 that remains with potential, then that horse is surely Rewilding. On a couple of occasions in 2010 he promised so much, only to subsequently disappoint. So impressive on his British debut in a listed race at Goodwood, he was sent off second favourite for the Derby (behind Jan Vermeer - remember him?) but failed to handle Tattenham Corner. Rewilding looked much more like the horse he had at Goodwood when putting up his best effort in the Voltigeur at York, merely nudged clear to beat Midas Touch by 4 lengths but again showed his darker side when beaten before stamina was an issue when favourite for the St Leger. Whilst Doncaster was clearly a low point, what Rewilding achieved and promised at York is the fuel to fire a 2011 campaign in which he'll get the Group 1 honours he deserves.

The accolade of top filly over middle distances is shared by Midday and Sarafina. Despite developing a tendency to idle, Midday showed herself to be an improved performer in 2010, the pick of her efforts coming when winning the Yorkshire Oaks. Much of the aftermath of that race centred on Sariska's refusal to race, but Midday was most impressive as she readily left dual-Oaks winner Snow Fairy behind. That form was looking even stronger by the end of the year given the runner-up's exploits abroad.

Sarafina failed to add to her win in the Prix de Diane in the autumn but still enhanced her reputation in defeat, putting up a career-best effort when third in the Arc, which was all the more meritorious considering she was badly hampered. Midday held the upper hand when the pair met in the Prix Vermeille, but a rematch in 2011 will be something to savour.

Timeform top middle-distance performers in Racehorses of 2010

140    Harbinger
133    Workforce
132    Nakayama Festa
130    Cape Blanco, Fame And Glory
129    Rip Van Winkle
128    Twice Over
126    Midday, Rewilding, Sarafina, Byword

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Timeform's Harry Bowles picks out the best ante-post bets for the Baring Bingham Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival...

Any fears that the inaugauration of the Spa Hurdle in 2005 would detract from the quality of the Baring Bingham haven't come to pass; Mikael d'Haguenet and Peddlers Cross are recent proof enough of that (the latter even had a future Ascot Gold Cup winner back in third twelve months ago).

Year-in year-out the race looks more than deserving of its Grade 1 status (something which can't generally be said of the Spa) and, whilst at present open-looking, this season's renewal is sure to be no different. That said, there are a couple from either side of the Irish Sea who make no little appeal at current prices.

It would be reasonable to imagine that the Challow Hurdle would have a significant bearing on the Baring Bingham and, whilst no winner of that race has gone on to win at Cheltenham in March (Reve de Sivola went close last season), Backspin looks the obvious starting-off point.

The winner of a bumper for Mags Mullins last spring, Jonjo O'Neill's gelding has shot to prominence in no time since coming to Britain, winning the Grade 1 at Newbury just a fortnight after a successful hurdling debut at Bangor. Admittedly, it's impossible to make hard-and-fast conclusions about the Newbury race given the 'pea-souper' that had enveloped the course that day, but what is clear is that Backspin deserves plenty of credit for getting the better of more streetwise rivals at this nascent stage of his career.

It was eight lengths back to Court In Motion, who improved his form to the extent he looked capable of doing when a facile winner at Exeter on his reappearance. During the brief glimpses of the field at Newbury, it was clear that Court In Motion had been dropped out whereas Backspin was ridden closer to the pace, It's difficult to know how far tactics played a role but, either way, it's something of a surprise that the disparity in their relative prices for Cheltenham is as great as it is, as Lavelle's Court In Motion still remains a very exciting prospect in his own right, both for the short and long-term.

What of third-placed Al Ferof? Runner-up to Cue Card in the Champion Bumper last season, he might have been thought the most likely of the Challow field to be considered a leading contender for the Baring Bingham even though he'd fallen at Cheltenham on his hurdling debut. He'd made the running then but was ridden with much more restraint at Newbury, and his potential for Graded races remains intact; he can't fail to win an ordinary novice, anyway.

Three-time winner Rock On Ruby wasn't far removed from stablemate Al Ferof when it came to bumpers and, unlike that one he made a successful transition to hurdles on that same fog-enshrouded card at Newbury. He did go from the front, we know that, though whether or not he was able to establish a soft lead is difficult to determine, as is what precisely he achieved in beating impressive Ascot winner Megastar and warm favourite Kid Cassidy by six lengths and twelve lengths respectively.

Another high-end recruit from bumpers who needs considering after a faultless start to his hurdling career is Dare Me. After suffering a setback he got his career back on track in no uncertain manner last term, culminating in his close second to the aforementioned Megastar at Aintree. He's made short work of inferior rivals in a couple of Exeter novices thus far this season and remains an excellent prospect, though he needs to be tested more thoroughly before his potential for the top level can be assessed.

The biggest impression made on either side of the Irish Sea this season was arguably that created by Zaidpour in winning the Grade 1 Royal Bond at Fairyhouse. A half-brother to the high-class Zaynar, Willie Mullins' five-year-old trotted up on his hurdling debut at Punchestown a month before sauntering to success over Pineau de Re and looking for all the world a champion novice in the making. Little surprise, then, he was sent off at long odds-on to follow up in another Grade 1 event at Leopardstown over Christmas. He was arguably ridden with a shade too much confidence and just failed to get to First Lieutenant, though at the same time he still shaped like the best horse in the race with the way he travelled and is well worth another chance to confirm himself as one on the way to the top. Zaidpour is the type of horse it might be worth having in the Cheltenham book for both potential targets (also prominent in the Supreme betting), as he will likely be shorter on the day wherever he turns up, thus giving the chance to lay off for your stake on the other race.

As ever, Mullins will doubtless hold a strong hand when it comes to most of the novice races at the Festival, and this one isn't going to be any exception. So Young won a trio of bumpers in France and could barely have been more impressive in making a winning start over hurdles in a maiden at Leopardstown the day before Zaidpour's reverse there. He still has a long way to go in form terms, but the manner in which he dismissed twenty-three rivals suggests he's destined for the top. That said, he's priced up much more on style than substance.

Recommendation

Back Zaidpour @ 11.0 and Court In Motion @ 40.0 for the Baring Bingham Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham

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The betting for the David Nicholson Mares Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival is currently dominated by runners from across the Irish Sea, with Willie Mullins' Quevega predictably a short-priced favourite to land her third consecutive win in the 2½m contest, but Timeform's Stuart Jones has found another to back against the defending champion...

It pretty much goes without saying that Quevega is the one they all have to beat. A standout in the mares division since joining Mullins, she stamped herself a very smart performer when winning this race in 2009 and then belied an absence of nearly ten months to see off Carole's Legacy by an easy 4½ lengths in last year's renewal.

Quevega had little trouble making her mark in open company next time, either, taking the step up to 3m in her stride when winning what has proved to be a strong renewal of the World Series Hurdle at Punchestown. She hasn't been seen since, however, and it's her fragile nature that offers a glimmer of light to ante-post punters looking for a bit of value elsewhere.

Voler La Vedette provides the most viable opposition to the current jolly and, unlike that rival, she has already proved that she retains all of her ability this season, winning a listed event at Punchestown before very good placed efforts in Grade 1s behind Solwhit and Hurricane Fly. However, Colm Murphy's mare was firmly put in her place when over five lengths back in third last year and it's difficult to see how she can reverse that form if the pair were to meet again.

Last year's runner-up Carole's Legacy has also returned in top form and, like last season, she's already mixing hurdling and chasing to good effect, winning a listed race over timber at Kempton before chasing home Tartak in a Grade 3 handicap back over fences at Cheltenham on New Year's Day. That said, she has plenty to find with Quevega and Voler La Vedette on Timeform ratings, for all she had the latter behind last year, and she would also be better suited by 3m.

Nigel Twiston-Davies has a good record at the Festival and the unbeaten L'Accordioniste is a very interesting contender. Far less exposed than the majority, L'Accordioniste created a big impression when winning a competitive handicap at Cheltenham in December, finishing very strongly to beat Praxiteles by 1¾ lengths going away. L'Accordioniste does have plenty to find with the principals, but she looks sure to benefit from the step up to 2½m and can't be ruled out.

The biggest threat to Quevega could well come from Prunella Dobbs's Our Girl Salley. A useful bumper winner, Our Girl Salley has created a big impression when winning both starts over hurdles, proving her effectiveness at the trip when barely off the bridle to win a listed event at Leopardstown.

Her jumping already looks an asset, something that should negate too many concerns about her inexperience, and whilst most of her wins have been on testing ground, she ran right up to the pick of her bumper form on her only start on good to soft going last season.

All in all, for those wanting a play in the David Nicholson Mares Hurdle, the recommendation is to back Our Girl Salley. Quevega is sure to be shorter than her current odds of 2.34 should she arrive in one piece, but that's a big if at this early stage and current odds of 17.0 look to underestimate the chances of Prunella Dobbs's most progressive novice.

Recommendation

Back Our Girl Salley @ 17.0 for the David Nicholson Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham

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Timeform look back at the weekend's action at Cheltenham...


Chetenham's New Year's Day meeting was the undoubted highlight this weekend and the best performance there in terms of form, as well as the one with the most significant implications for the Festival in just over three months time, was that of Oscar Whisky in the two-and-a-half mile minor hurdle.

Oscar Whisky enjoyed a good novice campaign last season, finishing fourth in the Supreme on his final outing, but he was much improved on Saturday, producing a performance not far off high-class in barely coming off the bridle to beat Any Given Day by seven lengths. Oscar Whisky's performance puts him firmly in the discussion for the Champion Hurdle, and he is now a 17.0 shot for that race, having already been matched for plenty of money at three-figure odds. He reportedly heads next to Ffos Las for the Welsh Champion Hurdle.

The day's most valuable event at Cheltenham was the two-mile-five-furlong handicap chase which went the way of Tartak, who showed a good attitude to reel in the reliable mare Carole's Legacy. Tartak had hinted at temperament on his reappearance at Aintree, but there has been no evidence of that whatsoever since a tongue tie has been applied on his two most recent starts, and he should continue to run well, either in handicaps or returned to graded company.

There were a couple of other notable handicap performances at Cheltenham, notably the ones produced by Ashkazar, who led home a David Pipe 1-2-3 in the three-mile handicap hurdle, and one-time high-class hurdler Blazing Bailey, who produced easily his best performance over fences when winning the staying chase on the card.

The Grade 2 Dipper Novices' Chase looked likely to be one of the more informative such events run so far this season, and it went the way of Hell's Bay, who has proved a real credit to Colin Tizzard so far this season. Hell's Bay has a variety of Festival options, namely the RSA Chase, the novices' handicap formerly known as the Jewson, or the race now known as the Jewson. Hell's Bay's performance paid a major compliment to two of the horses that have beaten him this season, namely Finian's Rainbow (8.8 second-favourite for the Arkle) and Time For Rupert (4.0 favourite for the RSA Chase).

The only novice hurdle on the card was won by the Nicky Henderson-trained Bobs Worth, who enters Festival calculations (25.0 shot for the Baring Bingham), while the concluding bumper went the way of Roger Charlton's Keys, who is now just 15.0 for the Champion Bumper in March.



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Timeform look ahead to the next week's racing...


Monday January 3

There are jumps fixtures at Ayr, Cork, Hereford and Lingfield on a bumper Monday that also includes all-weather action at both Southwell and Wolverhampton.


Tuesday January 4

The card at Leicester is it so far as jumping is concerned on Tuesday, but there are also all-weather fixtures to look forward to at Southwell and Kempton.


Wednesday January 5

It's one NH card to two on the all-weather again on Wednesday. The day's jumping takes place at Southwell, while the Flat action is at Kempton and Lingfield.


Thursday January 6

Both Huntingdon and Ludlow stage seven-race NH meetings on Thursday, while the action also resumes in Ireland at Thurles. There are also two further all-weather fixtures at Southwell and Wolverhampton.


Friday January 7

Four meetings are set to take place on Friday, two over jumps (Bangor and Fontwell) and two on the all-weather (Lingfield and Wolverhampton).


Saturday January 8

It may be later that intended, but the Welsh National finally goes ahead at Chepstow on Saturday, where the card also includes the Grade 1 Finale Juvenile Hurdle. There is also Grade 1 jumping action at Sandown in the shape of the Tolworth Hurdle over two miles for novices. Wincanton stages the day's other jumps card, while Lingfield is the venue for seven races on the all-weather.

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It might have got off to a delayed start, but the Leopardstown December Festival was well worth the wait. Timeform look back over the highlights, with an eye to finding clues for the Cheltenham Festival in March...


Tuesday

The meeting finally got underway on Tuesday, and started with a bang for the trainer and jockey combination of Willie Mullins and Paul Townend as ex-French Flat winner So Young made a successful debut over hurdles.

Tuesday's first Grade 1 was the Fort Leney Novice Chase, a race won by the likes of Notre Pere and Pandorama in recent seasons, but it looked just an average renewal and went the way of the relatively unfancied Bostons Angel, who will now be hard to place under a penalty.

The Christmas Hurdle came next, in which Willie Mullins' Mourad ran out a two-length winner, in the process staking a claim for the World Hurdle, though in truth he'll be playing for a place at best behind Big Buck's, as his current price of 19.0 suggests.

The favourite also obliged in the Lexus Chase, this time for Noel Meade and Paul Carberry, the aforementioned Pandorama landing a gamble to become the first Irish-trained winner of the race since Beef or Salmon in 2005. Former winner The Listener set a sound pace, but Pandorama took over on the bridle approaching the last and asserted in good style. Pandorama is now the one to beat in the Irish Hennessy, and though he was understandably backed in the Gold Cup market (now 20.0), Meade has stated that Cheltenham will come under consideration only if the ground comes up soft.


Wednesday

It was a case of déjà vu on Wednesday as Mullins and Townend teamed up to land the opener, this time with Cottrelsbooley, and they also tasted success when Hurricane Fly took the score between him and Solwhit to 3-1 in the December Festival Hurdle. It wasn't all positive on the day for the County Carlow trainer, however, as Zaidpour was turned over at long odds on (Betfair SP 1.26) in the Future Champions Novice Hurdle.

Zaidpour shaped like the best horse, however, still travelling comfortably under a confident ride turning for home but never quite getting there once finally asked for his effort, and he is still worth his place towards the head of the betting for the novice events at Cheltenham. Zaidpour is now 10.0 for the Supreme Novice, which looks a good price given that he arguably should have kept his unbeaten record intact.

Hurricane Fly didn't tell us anything new with another defeat of Solwhit, but he was subsequently backed into favouritism for the Champion Hurdle, now trading at 5.2. Although visually impressive, in form terms it wasn't an advance on what Hurricane Fly has done before and whether he deserved to shorten up in the betting is a moot point.

Last season's Queen Mother winner, Big Zeb, landed the other Grade 1 on the card, the Dial-A-Bet Chase. Big Zeb led going well after two out, but had to come under strong pressure to hold on by 1¾ lengths from Golden Silver. Big Zeb will reportedly go for the Tied Cottage at Punchestown before putting his Cheltenham crown on the line and with so few chinks in his armour nowadays, he still looks to represent the value ahead of Masterminded at his current price of 5.0.

Although there were three Grade 1s on the card, the most valuable event of the day was the Paddy Power Handicap Chase. Dermot Weld plundered the €100,000+ prize with Majestic Concorde, who may now become the trainer's first runner in the Grand National at Aintree in the last 25 years.


Thursday

The highlight of the day was supposed to be Mikael d'Haguenet winning the Bord na Mona With Nature Novice Chase, but last season's Ballymore Hurdle winner clearly wasn't himself turned out quickly, jumping right and hanging before finding little. Noel Meade's Realt Dubh was the one to take advantage, winning by five lengths from Noble Prince, but it will be a big surprise if Mikael d'Haguenet doesn't turn out the best chaser among them in the long-term.

Other Cheltenham clues came from Sailors Warn, who came on to the radar for the Triumph Hurdle after his 3½- length win in the juvenile event. The well-touted Bold Optimist got the job done for Gordon Elliott in the NH Flat race and now trades as favourite (11.0) for Cheltenham's Champion Bumper, in what is admittedly a market still taking shape.



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The World Hurdle at Cheltenham revolves around one horse - Big Buck's - who is attempting to complete a hat-trick of wins in the race, but Timeform reckon they have found a good ante-post play against the odds-on favourite...


Make no mistake; Big Buck's is by far and away the most likely winner. He was sent off at 1.96 when landing his second World Hurdle for Paul Nicholls in March and will be an even shorter price this time around (currently 1.81), assuming everything also goes to plan in his next reported assignment, the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham.

A dominant force in the staying hurdle division for the last couple of years, Big Buck's extended his winning sequence over hurdles to ten when easily landing the rearranged Long Walk at Newbury in December and has an excellent chance of emulating Inglis Drever, who was a three-time winner of the World Hurdle. Big Buck's has nearly a stone in hand of anything else in the division according to Timeform ratings, but would you want to back him at odds on with another two and a half months to go? I think not.

So where are the alternatives? Karabak ((22.0]) is an admirable sort who enhanced his reputation when taking the Relkeel at Cheltenham (Celestial Halo (22.0) and Zaynar (21.0) third and fourth respectively) in December, but he twice had to play second fiddle to Big Buck's last season and there's no reason to think he will get the better of him in March. So is it worth backing Karabak for a place instead? Probably not, as he's already shown how good he is and there are others who look to have greater potential.

Celestial Halo made a sound return to hurdling in the Relkeel, after an aborted chasing campaign, but he wouldn't be sure to stay the trip and would likely take part only if the same owners' Big Buck's were to miss the race for some reason. Zaynar is another about whom there are doubts. Third in last season's Champion Hurdle, Zaynar hasn't really gone on this term and is yet to try the three-mile trip, and the fact that he pulled too hard given an outing in blinkers in the Relkeel last time suggests stepping up wouldn't necessarily be in his favour.

Willie Mullins' Mourad (18.0) was impressive when landing a Grade 2 at Leopardstown over the Festive period and is still relatively unexposed as a stayer, but he too has his limits, and arguably the biggest threat to Big Buck's is David Pipe's Grands Crus.

Grands Grus has had only five runs over hurdles so far, but he's shown high-class form in winning both his starts this season, at Cheltenham and Haydock. Grands Crus was much improved when stepping up to three miles for the first time at Haydock and was most impressive in cantering ten lengths clear of a subsequent winner. There was an even bigger distance back to the third that day, himself a useful sort, and, if anything, Grands Crus was value for much more than the actual margin of victory, having the race in the bag some way out and coasting late on.

Obviously, the World Hurdle is a big step up from handicaps, but Grands Crus will hopefully get the chance to test the water in graded company before Cheltenham, and the 19.0 currently on offer won't be around for long after that.

So, for those looking to have an ante-post stake in the World Hurdle, the recommendation is to back Grands Crus to win. Big Buck's may well start even shorter than 1.81 on the day, but if we are right about Grands Crus then he too will be shorter than his current odds, and if there is a horse in the field with the potential to make a race of it with Big Buck's then it is David Pipe's grey.


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One of the feature events of Leopardstown's Christmas meeting, which saw the fourth clash between Hurricane Fly and Solwhit. Timeform share their Perspective entries...


A smart renewal of a Grade 1 hurdle which rarely attracts more than a handful of runners, the pair that fought out the finish of the Hatton's Grace at Fairyhouse earlier in the month filling the same positions. The pace was only fair.

HURRICANE FLY didn't tell us anything we didn't already know about him, but this impressive victory was enough to see him promoted to outright favouritism for the Champion Hurdle. He was fitted with earplugs, jumped slightly out to his right, got in close to two out but challenged on the bridle at the last and quickened clear for just a shake of the reins. It is hard to see what is going to beat him in the Irish Champion Hurdle here next month.

SOLWHIT has now finished second to Hurricane Fly on three of his last four starts and, though things didn't pan out ideally for him here, he will probably have to be kept clear of that rival if he is to add to his tally at this level. He was somewhat surprisingly ridden for a turn of foot at this shorter trip, slip-streaming the winner in third for most of the way, and was still travelling comfortably when short of room at the last, staying on well under hands and heels once in the clear to snatch second on the line.

LUSKA LAD ran right up to his very best on a rare try on a left-handed track, jumping slightly out to his right as he was allowed a relatively easy time of things up front, no match for the winner but sticking to his task in typically game fashion. The Irish Champion Hurdle is reportedly on his agenda.

THOUSAND STARS wasn't discredited in a race that wasn't run to suit, still travelling strongly in rear two out and not given a hard time after flicking through the top of the last. He improved out of all recognition after joining this yard last season, winning three handicaps, including the County Hurdle at Cheltenham, prior to finishing third in the Rabobank Champion Hurdle at Punchestown.

WON IN THE DARK isn't up to this level and didn't do himself any favours by refusing to settle in rear.


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