TimeformBlog

It doesn't take a great racing mind to work out that any King George discussion must centre around Kauto Star. Even the majority of the lads in Timeform House have solved that one.

In short, Kauto Star has made the King George his own this century. In 2009, he became the first horse in history to win the race for the fourth year in succession, matching Desert Orchid as the only quadruple winner of the Christmas showpiece. A year on, and the seemingly ageless Kauto Star seeks to eclipse racing's most famous front-running grey.

Current odds imply it's almost a 50-50 call, but it's hard to suggest the likelihood of another success for 'Kauto' isn't more like 65-35. It's certainly difficult to imagine Kauto Star not starting closer to 1.6 than 2.0.

Kauto's detractors might well point to the frailties in the form of his winning return, but it's doubtful there's any validity in such analysis. Granted, a four-length defeat of Sizing Europe wasn't Kauto at his peak, but he still did all that was required and even that form gives him an edge on most of his likely rivals. In addition, Kauto Star hasn't been able (or required) to run to his outstanding best first time back since, probably, 2006.

It's hard to comprehend, but Kauto Star's latest King George success, which staggeringly saw him pull a distance clear of a good field, was better than anything he'd done before and, to give it historical context, represented the best performance ratings-wise by any horse on Timeform figures since all-time National Hunt greats Arkle and Mill House.

One is therefore left wondering if there's any point trying to get him beaten, and I would certainly far rather back than lay him, but the punter within also craves a more exotic approach, which brings us the way of the 'without Kauto' market currently available on Betfair.

Long Run currently heads the betting, but quite why he's around half the price of everything else is hard to fathom. Yes, he was impressive when winning the Feltham here as a novice, but his third in the Paddy Power first time out still leaves him with work to do against some of these and he's no value whatsoever on form. It'd be easy to become tired with the hitherto unjustified hype surrounding Long Run if it wasn't for the fact he's making the market for others yet again.

Nicky Henderson's second possible representative, Riverside Theatre, hasn't done enough to justify his current price, either, while Forpadydeplasterer has question marks hanging over his resolution and is unproven at the trip, so better cases on value grounds can be made for Nacarat and Albertas Run.

Nacarat is no Kauto Star, but his own Kempton record is hard to fault; he's been first and second in the last two runnings of the Racing Post Chase, while he shaped second best prior to fading into fourth in last season's King George. Granted less competition for the lead, he's sure to be thereabouts, as is Albertas Run if he can put his latest Ascot fall behind him and handle conditions. Albertas Run confirmed himself a top-class chaser in winning the Ryanair and the Maghull on his last two starts in 2009/10, and his current price is simply too big considering as well he was runner-up to Kauto Star in the race in 2008.

Let's hope it's worth the wait. It really should be.

Recommendations

Back Kauto Star @ 1.8
Back Nacarat in the 'W/O Kauto' market @ 7.2
Back Albertas Run in the 'W/O Kauto' market @ 20.0

For more great racing betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/