TimeformBlog

14:00 - We will know how good an afternoon it is going to be early on, as the first banker is Flambard House in the opener. He made a promising start to his career when second to a horse that has gone in twice since, and the third, fourth and sixth from that race have also tasted success. He seems straightforward and has the benefit of experience, which is a big advantage considering many of his rivals are yet to see a racecourse.

14:30 - Fremen recorded the twenty-first victory of his career last week, and the popular 11-year-old is fancied to make it 22. Paul Quinn has ridden him for both of his wins this season, and is expected to bounce out and make all. Another regular in claimers is Moody Tunes, who is the back-up choice. He is a two-time course and distance winner and is having his first run back in Britain this season after two creditable efforts in French claimers. Expected to be just sitting off the pace, he could give Fremen the most problems.

15:00 - A tough apprentice handicap to crack, as a lot of these have shown little form of late. Star Addition should be suited by today's step back to a mile after racing freely over a mile and a quarter last time and Eric Alston has his older horses in excellent form. We better have a saver in the form of Classic Descent, who has managed to string a couple of creditable efforts together (including a very close third at Newcastle), which is more than can be said for most of his rivals.

15:30 - This one is short and sweet. Walter Swinburn rarely sends any runners this far north, but he may have found a good opportunity for Monicalew to get off the mark. She ran creditably on her handicap debut at Newmarket last time, over an inadequate trip and should take all the beating here.

16:00 - A bad looking race, and surely the toughest leg of the placepot. Alluring Star showed some promise on her handicap debut at Wolverhampton last week, looking as if today's step up from six to seven furlongs will be in her favour, and with trainer Mick Easterby's horses running well, she looks a likely sort. In a race of such low quality it is best to back up our selection with Mick Channon's fully exposed Robber Stone, who looked in need of the run last time, but has the form to be competitive here.

16:30 - The stronger division of the seven-furlong handicap, but not necessarily any easier to solve. Mini's Destination's has been holding her form well enough at a lowly level to think she might be capable of nicking a place. It may also be worth taking a chance on handicap debutant Ryedale Dancer for Tim Easterby, who has the profile of a potential improver. She wasn't knocked about on her reappearance last time in a maiden, doing all her best work at the finish, making the step up in trip to seven furlongs a big positive.

Selections: 16 lines
14:00 - 2
14:30 - 2,7
15:00 - 5,8
15:30 - 4
16:00 - 5,6
16:30 - 5,7

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The middle weeks of May can provide something of a lull in Britain (after The 1000 and 2000 Guineas but before The Derby and The Oaks) but racing is an increasingly international sport and there was no lack of interest elsewhere.

In particular, the early hours of Saturday saw many British racing enthusiasts switching on to watch the Australian sprint sensation Black Caviar extend her unbeaten run to 13 in a Group 1 at Doomben. This she did comfortably by two lengths from her old adversary Hay List, the mare posting a 133 figure (2 lb below her peak) in scoring readily.

The pair were clear, and Hay List managed to advance his Timeform rating from 127 to 128, a figure good enough to make him a clear Champion Sprinter candidate if connections were to tire of playing second fiddle to Black Caviar and decide to have a go at some of the top British races.

Master ratings represent the high-water mark of a horse's performance and are traditionally used to gauge an individual in a historical context. However, it is also interesting to consider the array of performance ratings which go to prompt any master rating, as they can shed more light on an individual's consistency, durability and versatility.

Black Caviar scores highly in this respect also. She has now posted four performances worthy of ratings in excess of 130 on Timeform ratings. This has her behind only Curlin and Montjeu (five apiece) and alongside Sea The Stars, ex-Australian So You Think and Dylan Thomas among horses to have run worldwide this century (ratings allow for ease of victory where possible). And there is no sign of her stopping!

The focus turned the following day to Longchamp and the French version of The Guineas. The impression made by the respective winners were contrasting: Golden Lilac won the fillies' contest in good style with an above-standard 120 Timeform performance, while Tin Horse took what seemed a slightly below-par colts' event with only 118.

Golden Lilac is now rated 2 ahead of the Newmarket 1000 Guineas winner Blue Bunting, each filly having a "p" on her rating indicating likely further improvement.

The main event of the week in Britain was the Dante Meeting at York. A surprising number of the races were messy affairs, resulting in poor timefigures. That comment applies to the Dante Stakes itself, but Carlton House did win the race authoritatively to go to the head of the ante-post Derby market.

Both race standards and prior-rating standards point to a performance figure for Carlton House of 117 (timefigure of only 58), but, on 122, he has been kept 3 lb ahead of the runner-up Seville. Pisco Sour, in third, has been raised from 105 to 109.

The Derby has enjoyed something of a renaissance in recent times and the 10-year average rating by the race winner stands at 127.8. It is highly likely that Carlton House will have to improve further to prevail at Epsom in June: he and Seville still have a "p" symbol on their ratings.

Delegator (125), Duncan (124) and Midday (126) all won good races at York, but only the last-named had to run to her best in so doing.

The Group 1 Lockinge Stakes was the highlight of Newbury's Saturday card. The odds-on Canford Cliffs was made to work a bit to beat the Italian-trained Worthadd by a length and a quarter, though the pair were comfortably clear. Race standards point to a maximum rating of 127, prior ratings to a bit higher, while the timefigure was a pretty healthy 123.

In the end, our handicapper has rated Canford Cliffs as running to 128 (Worthadd 125) and has left the colt's master rating at 131. It was his first run of the campaign, and only ninth in all, and it is possible he will leave this figure behind in the coming months.

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Bated Breath impressively won his first three starts in 2010, looking a sprinter to follow, and made up for a luckless run on his reappearance when cosily winning at Haydock last time. He can take this return to listed class in his stride.

Elnawin posted a career-best effort to take a five-furlong minor event at Ascot last time with Monsieur Joe close behind in third. Richard Hughes prefers Monsieur Chevalier, but he's dangerous to dismiss even so.

Evens And Odds landed the Stewards' Cup at Goodwood in July and showed similar form when taking a minor event at Thirsk last month. He wasn't discredited over an inadequate five furlongs in the Palace House Stakes last time, but more is needed here.

Horseradish is a progressive performer who hasn't been discredited in competitive handicaps on his last two outings, only finding Hoof It too good at York last time. He's well worth a try at this level.

Monsieur Chevalier was a smart two-year-old, winning six of his first seven starts, and wasn't discredited in the Prix de l'Abbaye on his final start in 2009. Richard Hughes takes the ride for this belated return, but it's asking a lot for him to bounce back to his very best.

Monsieur Joe is a speedy sort who ran a career-best when an unlucky second in a first-time visor at Meydan in March. He was just over half a length behind Elnawin at Ascot last time, but is 3 lb worse off now and the longer trip isn't ideal.

Son of The Cat has been lightly raced in the last couple of season, returning to winning ways in a seven-furlong match at Lingfield last month. He has had valid excuses the last twice, but is biting off more than he can chew at listed level.

Triple Aspect landed this contest on his reappearance in 2010, but ended the season out of sort. He ran a better race when fifth in the Duke of York Stakes last time and is respected for all he needs to raise his game again.

Tropical Treat comfortably landed a listed event at Ayr in June and improved when a neck second to Rose Blossom in the Summer Stakes at York next tie. She has claims on that effort but ran poorly on her final couple of outings.

Libranno is a front runner who won a pair of Group 2 events over six furlongs last year. He was stretched by a mile when runner-up in the Craven Stakes on his return and wasn't disgraced at this level at Ascot last time. He has place claims here.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1.    Bated Breath
2.    Horseradish
3.    Elnawin

Timeform View: Bated Breath is capable of winning Group races over six furlongs and can prove it by outclassing his field here. Horseradish might be the biggest threat despite being raised in class, while Elnawin might do best of a trio of Hannon runners, despite stable jockey Richard Hughes looking elsewhere.

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Babycakes won handicaps at Wolverhampton and Sandown last year. She found this sort of mark beyond her on her final two starts last year but the booking of Frankie Dettori suggests a big run is expected on her return.

Nahab is a physically imposing filly who swept past the whole field at Lingfield last time to make it two from two for the year in handicaps on the polytrack. She has form on turf and should go well in her hat-trick bid.

Wallis is a lightly raced filly who ended 2010 on the up, winning a six-furlong Kempton maiden before producing an improved effort to follow up in a handicap over the same trip at Lingfield. She is clearly speedy but should stay a mile judged on her pedigree.

Mazamorra won a Goodwood maiden and a Wolverhampton handicap in 2010. The assessor looked in charge when she was last seen, however, and the same story is expected on her return here.

Night Lily won four handicaps in 2010 and went in again at Lingfield in February. She was better than the bare result in the Spring Cup last time and is definitely capable of making her presence felt off a lower mark.

Ela Gorrie Mou improved again in 2010, winning a handicap at Windsor in June. She is entitled to come on for her recent return over a mile and a quarter here, but is vulnerable to less exposed types.

Rosedale ended 2010 in fine form, winning two of her last four starts, the first of them here off a much lower mark. She is versatile as regards ground, but will need to improve to take this on her reappearance.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Nahab
2. Wallis
3. Night Lily

Timeform View: Nahab and Wallis are both progressive and possibly the pair to concentrate on, the former just preferred, though Night Lily is potentially well handicapped on turf and shouldn't be underestimated.

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14:30 - We start this afternoon with a competitive three-year-old handicap and as such we will take two to see us through. First off we will go with Man Of God who looked a useful prospect when winning his maiden at Yarmouth last year. Parlour Games was second that day and has subsequently won a handicap off a higher mark than Man of God races off this afternoon, so he must have a great chance of making the three today. We will also take Grumeti, who travelled well for a long way when third to Four Nations at Goodwood on his reappearance and should strip fitter this afternoon.

15:00 - Two-year-old maidens can be notoriously tricky, but Represent shaped very well when narrowly beaten by Guru Girl at Ascot on debut, and with experience often coming to the fore in these races she rates good bet to be placed. Richard Hannon's juveniles are always respected and out of his two runners here we will go for Dare To Doubt who is bred to be useful and is the choice of Richards Hughes.

15:30 - Tim Easterby won this last year and looks to have good claims this time around with No Poppy, who is taken to improve on her reappearance at Chester earlier this month. That effort is best excused given that she was drawn wide and missed the break and it is worth remembering her performances towards the end of last season when running well in competitive handicaps at Newmarket and Doncaster. On the face of it Bassett Road's win in a four-runner maiden at Wolverhampton last year would not set many pulses racing. However, Basset Road did land a bit of a gamble that day and the runner-up, Cloud Illusions, has won both her subsequent starts, giving the form a solid look.

16:00 - Another tricky handicap here and Manaaber is taken to make it two wins from two runs on her seasonal debut. The Barry Hills-trained filly had several winners in behind when winning her maiden over six furlongs at Doncaster. That run is all the more promising when you take into account that she is bred to much better over today's trip and she should at the very least hit the three. Given that it is Manaaber's reappearance we will also select Sergeant Troy who stepped up markedly on his previous efforts when easily accounting for Imaginary World at Warwick last time (form has worked out well) and could still have more to offer.

16:30 - Banker time now, and it's She's Got The Luck who we're taking to propel us into the final leg. She ended her juvenile campaign for George Moore by finishing runner-up to Mahab El Shamaal in a maiden over this distance at Pontrefract. Now with Richard Fahey, She's Got The Luck is expected to have progressed over the winter and with her new stable bang in form, she is a confident selection to make a winning reappearance, let alone make the three.

17:00 - We end with division two of the maiden and hardly any of these can be ruled out, but in order to keep the lines down we will take two against the field. Cobbs Quay was an expensive purchase and should be suited by the drop back in trip after being stretched over an extended mile and a half at Musselburgh last time. With his trainer John Gosden having his string in fine form at the moment, he is entitled to be thereabouts. We will also take Roger Varian's Mijhaar who was an encouraging runner-up to Fulgur in a maiden at Newbury on his only juvenile outing. He looks certain to improve for the step up in trip and a Royal Ascot entry seems to suggest he is well regarded.

Selections: 32 lines
14:30 - 3,11
15:00 - 5,3
15:30 - 1,5
16:00 - 8,10
16:30 - 14
17:00 - 4,8

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17:50 - Nayarra showed plenty amidst greenness when runner-up to Vocational (subsequently runner-up in listed race) on her debut at Warwick and rates as banker material, especially considering Mick Channon's current good run with his juveniles. The fact only Huma Bird of the remainder makes much appeal on paper a further reason to bank.

18:20 - Veloce is the only one in this to have tried the 14-furlong trip before, running well when second at Nottingham, and proven stamina allied with a progressive profile makes him the first selection. With Achalas a possible non-runner (needs rain), and big doubts over Musawama over this trip, the second selection has to be Eternal Heart, a half-brother to Yavana's Pace who looked to have inherited plenty of the family's stamina when scoring in a 12-furlong maiden at Musselburgh last month.

18:55 - Imaginary World is officially 5 lb well in after his unlucky second at Newmarket and is the obvious starting point with Dettori booked. Ree's Rascal is also officially well in after scoring by a wide margin at Windsor, though that form looks a bit suspect in truth, and Islesman appeals as a more solid selection, his latest second in what looked a good race at the same track earlier in the month probably strong form. Sir Michael Stoute's Levitate is also worth including, well bred and starting out from a mark of just 70.

19:30 - Haylaman will likely be popular for this with Dettori booked, but his second at Lingfield doesn't appeal as strong form, nor does Ivan Vaslievich's win at Yarmouth, and preference is for Little Black Book, who is unexposed after just three outings and ran well to finish third over this trip in what looked a good race at Windsor earlier in the month. Aldwick Bay is bred to stay this far and is also worth including, having signed off last year with two good efforts in nurseries.

20:05 - Another maiden, and another banker in the form of Tanfeeth, who sets a high standard having run to a near-useful level when second over this trip to Colombian at Chester (10 lengths clear of the third). It's hard to see him finishing out the frame, even if one or two of the newcomers prove to be any good.

20:35 - Three-year-olds have won all five runnings of this handicap and they look the ones to concentrate on again. Dragonera is first in, having impressed when winning over an extended mile at Wolverhampton. Foxley's maiden win at Warwick isn't looking all that strong, so she is passed over in favour of Regal Kiss, who made the frame on four of her six starts last year and could well have some improvement in her returning at a longer trip.

Selections: 24 lines
17:50 - 5
18:20 - 1,7
18:55 - 1,11,12
19:30 - 7,8
20:05 - 10
20:35 - 8,9

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Hacienda is a solid and straightforward handicapper at seven furlongs and a mile. He ran below expectations last time when sent off favourite for the Thirsk Hunt Cup but had started the season in good form in stronger races than this.

South Cape is a hold-u[p handicapper who usually gives his running and he won twice over this trip in 2010. He should be all the better for last month's reappearance at Newbury and also has cheekpieces back on now.

Douze Points is an ex-Irish handicapper with above-average ability but a poor strike rate. He made a promising start in Britain when fourth at Ripon in a race that has worked out, but took a step backwards at Ascot last time.

Our Joe Mac improved then held his form well through 2010 (won over C&D), but has looked a shadow of his former self so far this season. Cheekpieces are now tried and he is well handicapped if able to bounce back.

Charlie Cool is hitting the veteran stage, but remains a force when in the groove, winning three handicaps at a mile or nine furlongs in 2010. There were definite signs that he is on the way back last time.

Layla's Hero was a listed sprint winner as two-year-old but found it tough in 2010 and hasn't offered much so far this season. A mile is perhaps not his ideal trip, either.

Venutius is a front runner who was impressive when winning over C&D last summer and was better still when second at the July Meeting. His form tailed off towards the end of the year but he is well handicapped again as a result.

Colour Scheme is an unexposed handicapper who got better by the race as a three-year-old. It's easy to put a line through his reappearance run at Newmarket (raced on the 'wrong' side) and this trip may be his optimum.

Cheers For Thea thrived in 2010, winning four handicaps from seven furlongs to an extended mile. She raised her game again when second at Beverley last time, but this is a stronger race.

Celtic Change is a reliable front runner who scored at Beverley around this time last year when trained by Michael Dods. He lacks a recent run and faces competition for the lead, so looks up against it on debut for a new yard.

Tartan Trip is quite lightly raced and has proved generally progressive, doing well when second to a handicap blot at Kempton last time. Everything looks set for another big run.

Sam Sharp never really hit the heights for Henry Cecil and was restricted to just two runs last year. He's impossible to fancy after a long absence over an inadequate trip.

Marjury Daw was tough and progressive in 2010, winning five times at a mile and a mile and a quarter, but she consequently finds herself handicapped to the hilt, and made little impact on her return at Chester.

Satwa Laird has often promised more than he delivers, but hasd some strong handicap form to his name in 2010, notably his second to Start Right at Goodwood. His recent return at Ascot will have put him spot on for this.
High Resolution completed a hat-trick at Hamilton last summer and has come back even better this year, finishing runner-up there last time. This is a better class of handicap than he normally contests, however.

She's A Character has a patchy record, but capitalised on a drop in the weights when winning by four lengths at Doncaster last time in a race looks better now than it did at the time.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1.    Satwa Larid
2.    South Cape
3.    Tartan Trip

Timeform View: With several front runners in the field, this could well be set up for the faster finishers, and chief among them is Satwa Laird, who has never been lower in the weights. South Cape is another who should be in his element given a strong pace, and the upwardly mobile Tartan Trip is sure to be thereabouts.

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While the attention of the racing Press has turned firmly to thoughts of Epsom and the prospect of a Royal Derby winner, one jumper during the last week excited almost as much attention on the Betfair forum as Carlton House himself. That was the David Pipe-trained Togiak, in a maiden hurdle at Fontwell on Wednesday, a race won by Cleaver.

Seemingly ridden with plenty of confidence, Togiak came from off the pace in a steadily-run affair, never nearer than his finishing position of fourth, leaving the strong impression he would have won had his run begun sooner. The form may not be that solid and Togiak will now get a stiffer mark than he might otherwise have done but he should still be well treated on his Flat form and he can't fail to win races if kept on the go this summer.

Togiak wasn't the only one to catch the eye in that race, another ex-Flat performer Jezza made good ground late on his hurdling debut after jumping indifferently while the Gary Moore-trained Deux Etoiles travelled well and has more ability than his runs to date indicate.

The handicap hurdle there went to Font, and another having his first start for Lawney Hill, King Ozzy, won a similar event at Bangor on Saturday. This was one of the most competitive races of the week and the manner of his success suggests King Ozzy will be well up to staying ahead of the assessor for a while yet. Fair Gale tried to match strides with him from three out, and looked to be going the better. However, an absence of two years told and he finished only sixth. His mark looks workable on his Flat form and so he seems likely to go a lot closer next time. The third American Art also made a promising return after a lengthy break and is well up to winning a similar event.

A longer-term project on the Bangor card is Tarn Hows, who was making his debut over hurdles in the maiden won by Dineur. Soon a long way off the pace in a race dominated by the first two home but travelling well, Tarn Hows had moved into third when he made a mistake two out, the effort telling after. He was useful in bumpers and may well reach that level once he's handicapping over hurdles.

At Aintree the previous evening, Laterly and A Bridge Too Far were always first and second in the two-mile handicap hurdle, Laterly showing form well up to his best level on the Flat. The manner in which most of the rest were struggling to keep up four out, suggests the pair deserve full credit for their efforts and are best kept on the right side. Furrows, held up, travelled better than the others that gave chase and wasn't knocked about on his handicap debut. However, his mark is stiff and, like his brother Abey M'Boy, he shows signs of not being straightforward. This effort by Furrows was perhaps not so promising as it seems.

Finally, here are some others who could start shorter than they should next time (or just shouldn't be backed under almost any circumstances). Digital Media ended up winning a shocking handicap chase at Uttoxeter by a wide margin against some weak finishers and will surely go up more than he should in the handicap; the unwilling Phoenix Flight got off the mark over hurdles with a change of tactics, making all at Market Rasen, but that was in a weak contest run in a poor time and chances are he will revert to type when faced with any opposition; Rivaliste shaped as if in form over fences at Stratford but as usual made a significant mistake and jumping may well continue to let him down; and Eastern Supreme was well backed yet again, in a weak race over fences at Market Rasen, but ran a shocker - whether his problem is physical or mental (or both) he looks one to leave well alone.

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Beatrice Aurore is a Newmarket maiden winner who scored impressively in a 1m handicap here 13 days ago, pulling clear of Askaud. She has an Oaks entry and is open to further improvement for yard which won this 5 times in 1990s.

Belle Royale was successful 4 times as a juvenile and looked back on the up when landing a handicap over 7.5f at Beverley last month. However, she lost all chance with slow start at Chester last time, and this is tougher up in trip.

Date With Destiny is the only offspring of George Washington and she made winning debut at Newbury last summer. That said, she hasn't really built on that, merely plugging on when third in Lingfield Oaks Trial last time.

Highest didn't need to improve to land a 1½m Newcastle maiden last month, readily making all. Fair chance she has more to offer but this represents a big step up in class.

Imperial Pippin showed a likeable attitude when making a winning debut in Newbury maiden over this trip last month. She's entered at Royal Ascot and is open to plenty of improvement.

Metropolitan Miss made a successful debut in a 1m AW maiden prior to finishing second in an Ascot minor event. Beaten 9 lengths by Beatrice Aurore here last time, though, and hard to see her reversing the placings.

Poplin won a 1m maiden here in September and signed off with fine effort in strong Newmarket nursery. She shaped as if in need of the race up in trip on her return and remains capable of better.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Beatrice Aurore
2. Poplin
3. Imperial Pippin

Timeform View: Beatrice Aurore created a fine impression when landing a handicap here earlier in the month and can take this step up in class and trip in her stride. The well-bred Poplin could prove the biggest danger ahead of the John Gosden-trained pair Imperial Pippin and Highest.

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14:00 - Bahia Emerald can't be left out of the opener given how well she did to win a maiden at Doncaster last time out, but, it's also worth including Bajan Bear, who's not had a clear run on either start this year.

14:30 - There are plenty of newcomers in the second leg that make appeal, but both Bling King and Caledonian Spring shaped with promise on their debuts and have that vital experience edge over the majority, so they're ideal for a placepot.

15:00 - The race that Bouncy Bouncy finished an encouraging fifth in at Newcastle on her reappearance has thrown up several winners and she remains the type to do better at some stage, so she's the first selection in the third leg. Bossy Kitty is accompanying her having shaped much better than the result (needed the run) at Thirsk on her reappearance.

15:30 - The staying race is trappy and as such it's best to have three of the five runners on side, namely Arab League, Andorn and Not Til Monday, with the last two named coming into the race on the back of a win.

16:00 - Having used plenty of lines elsewhere, I'm going to bank on Elvira Delight in the penultimate leg in the hope that there aren't any withdrawals. She made an impressive winning debut at Lingfield and would have kept her unbeaten record intact had she not met trouble when narrowly beaten by Lexi's Boy in a handicap at Wolverhampton in February. Back from a break, it's hard to see her being kept out of the first two.

16:30 - Mashaaref's position in the market on his debut says plenty about what sort of regard he's held in and he'll do more to justify that support having needed the experience that day. Going in along with him is Maali, who also shaped well on debut and definitely looks the part.


Selections: 48 lines
14:00 - 10, 12
14:30 - 1, 4
15:00 - 4, 6
15:30 - 1, 3, 4
16:00 - 5
16:30 - 6, 7

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