TimeformBlog

Antara took the Princess Elizabeth Stakes at Epsom for the second successive year on her reappearance, readily beating First City. Another big run looks on the cards.

First City is thriving at present, chasing home Antara in the Princess Elizabeth and then beaten under three lengths into third in the Windsor Forest at Royal Ascot. These conditions hold no fears, but she's likely to come up short on her first crack at a Group 1.

I'm A Dreamer was a progressive miler throughout 2010 and has continued her improvement this year, winning the nine-furlong Dahlia Stakes at the Guineas meeting. Things didn't really go her way when only fifth in the Windsor Forest, and she needs to bounce back now.

Lily of The Valley made up into one of the top fillies in 2010, rounding off her unbeaten campaign with success in the Group 1 Prix de l'Opera over a mile and a quarter. She possibly needed the run when below form on her reappearance, but this drop in trip looks a big stumbling block.

River Jetez is one of the top performers in South Africa and she has been in good form in 2011, winning a nine-furlong Group 3 at Meydan in February. She ran well in defeat in the mile-and-a-quarter Singapore Cup last time and the drop back to a mile against her own sex is unlikely to be a problem.

Sahpresa won the Sun Chariot Stakes in 2009 and 2010 and she made a fine return to action when winning a seven-furlong Group 3 at Longchamp last month. She is reliable and versatile as regards ground, and looks sure to take close order.

Timepiece can look ungainly under pressure but is smart on her day, as when winning and eleven-furlong listed race at Warwick last month. She is just as effective at this trip but is likely to find a few too good in this grade.

Joviality improved out of all recognition when getting on top close home in the Musidora Stakes at York in May. She looked one-paced back at this trip in the Coronation Stakes last time and needs to take a big step forward to figure in this.

Maqaasid hasn't won since landing the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot last year, but has generally acquitted herself well in top company, including when a strong-travelling third in the 1000 Guineas. She was unsuited by the run of the race in the French equivalent and may have more to give.

Masaya won a valuable sales race over seven furlongs last year, but she has been found wanting in listed races this year and looks set to struggle.

Memory was one of the best two-year-old fillies last season, her wins including the Cherry Hinton at this meeting. She virtually refused to race when second favourite for the 1000 Guineas, but took a step back in the right direction at Royal Ascot last time, and might not have peaked yet.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Sahpresa
2. Antara
3. Memory

Timeform View: Three-year-olds have enjoyed a good recent record in this, winning four of the last fove runnings, but the older brigade may hold sway this year, with dual Sun Chariot winner Sahpresa fancied to gain her third success at the highest level. Godolphin's Antara is another with sound claims, while Memory may prove the pick of the younger generation.

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The mile-and-three-quarter handicap at York (15:10) has one of the day's biggest fields, but of the 19 declared to run there are just two three-year-olds, and Defence of Duress and State Opera are both among the more interesting runners, particularly the former, who has run well in three competitive handicaps this year, all the while suggesting that we haven't quite seen the best of him yet. Most recently, Defence of Duress finished second in a 12-furlong handicap at Ripon and although that effort represented improvement in form terms, he left the impression that neither track nor run of the race played to his strengths, seeming to pay for pressing on a long way out in a truly-run race. The wide expanse of the Knavesmire should be much more to Defence of Duress' liking, while the step up to a mile and three quarters is unlikely to be a problem (by Motivator from the family of Suave Dancer), so today he can prove an unchanged mark of 81 underestimates his ability.

Frankie Dettori returns from an enforced absence at Newmarket today where his best chance of a winner is arguably My Freedom in the mile handicap that concludes the card (17:20). My Freedom announced himself a useful prospect when bolting up in a maiden at Nottingham on his debut in 2010 and it's probably fair to say that things haven't really gone his way in two outings since. My Freedom returned to action in a handicap over a mile at Newcastle late last month where he finished second, beaten three quarters of a length, though he plainly shaped best on the day, the fact he was forced to switch when chasing the all-the-way winner probably the difference between victory and defeat. He has been raised just 1 lb for that effort, which is almost certainly lenient and My Freedom can prove that the case today.

Among all the excellent racing on offer, it might be overlooked that there's a pretty decent race at Chepstow this evening in the shape of the mile handicap (20:05). Six of the seven runners are fairly useful or better older horses, but the one that stands out a mile is the sole three-year-old, Belgian Bill. Belgian Bill won a hot handicap at Doncaster on his reappearance this year and put up and even better effort in defeat in the Britannia at Royal Ascot last time, finishing fourth, but looking unlucky not to push the winner Sagramor very close indeed bearing in mind that he met trouble in his run through the race. Belgian Bill has gone up 3 lb for Ascot which means he is giving weight away to all bar one of his more battle-hardened rivals, but put simply, if he matches the form he showed last time, he'll take all the beating today.

Recommendations
Back Defence of Duress @ 7.0 15:10 York
Back My Freedom @ 7.0 17:20 Newmarket
Back Belgian Bill @ 2.58 20:05 Chepstow

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The July Stakes looks an excellent renewal, with plenty of progressive types who ran well at Royal Ascot and an exciting unknown quantity in Church Music. However, Jeremy Noseda's stable is in fine form of late and his Roman Soldier is fancied to improve on his excellent neck second to Power in the Coventry. Roman Soldier travelled strongly at Royal Ascot and showed a good attitude to battle on after quickening to lead entering the final furlong. He sets the standard on form today and It would be a surprise if he isn't in contention on the climb to the winning post today.

The lightly raced Mijhaar was very impressive when winning a mile-and-a-quarter maiden at Haydock by a wide margin on just his second start, and the form has worked out very well (the second and third went in next time). His stamina was possibly stretched when fading into fourth behind Nathaniel in the King Edward VII last time, but he shaped much better than the distance beaten implies, looking the biggest danger to the winner turning in. This race represents a drop in class and Mijhaar sets a clear standard on form. Roger Varian's colt ought to take this and before heading back into pattern company.

Away from Newmarket, our final selection is Submission for Luca Cumani and Kieren Fallon in the fillies' handicap at Doncaster this evening. She has the profile of a typical progressive type from the Cumani stable, and she was still green (pulling hard and awkward round bends) when winning a similar event at Nottingham last time over today's distance of a mile. Submission went up 4 lb for that short-head success, but she clearly has a lot more to give and should defy that against largely exposed rivals.

Recommendations
Back Roman Soldier @ 2.86 Newmarket 13.50
Back Mijhaar @ 3.55 Newmarket 14.25
Back Submission @ 2.34 Doncaster 20:10

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Afsare landed listed Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot last year, but suffered minor setback afterwards. Back to best when equal second in listed Fred Archer Stakes over C&D last time, and may do better.

Campanologist won brace of Group 1 events in Germany last year, and back to best when chasing home So You Think at the Curragh in May. No excuses when only fifth in Hardwicke Stakes last time, and overlooked now.

Laaheb won in listed company over C&D last June, and later successful twice in Group 3 company. Bounced back from a modest effort when fourth in Hardwicke Stakes last time, and not ruled out here.

Redwood fulfilled all his potential in 2010, globetrotting with great success. As good as ever when runner-up in Dubai Sheema Classic when last seen, and that form boosted by Rewilding at Royal Ascot.

Ted Spread landed the Chester Vase in May 2010 and highly tried after, including in Derby and St Leger. Career best when runner-up in listed contest at Pontefract on return, but that looks his limit at this trip.

Crystal Capella beat Myplacelater 4½ lengths to gain second win in Pride Stakes in October, but below form since, in Hong Kong Vase and listed contest at Haydock on return. Not knocked about last time, however.

Myplacelater was successful 5 times at up to 1½m last year and signed off with excellent second to Crystal Capella here. Didn't take the eye before poor effort at York in May, but wouldn't want the ground to be fast.

Butheleziis is a talented but quirky colt, successful in 1¼m handicap here on return and placed in listed company over same C&D despite hanging violently left. May well improve again, but this looks too competitive.

Dordogne has been successful on 3 of 5 starts, resuming progression when making all to beat stable companion Hurricane Higgins in Lingfield Derby Trial in May. Much more needed if he's to follow up here, though.

Timeform 1-2-3
1. Redwood
2. Afsare
3. Crystal Capella

Timeform's View: Crystal Capella is the pick on her impressive Pride Stakes win, but she hasn't been in the same form since and the ultra-consistent Redwood is preferred, with his second to Rewilding at Meydan boosted since. Afsare looks best of the rest.

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14:30 - When a big field of relatively unexposed three-year-olds, only two of which have ever won a race is the most attractive first-leg on offer today, you can see we're going to need a bit of luck as well as judgement. Judgement says that Ishikawa, who has a solid chance of reaching the frame if converting his win on the all-weather in May to turf, and Mystic Edge, third in the same race and now ridden for the first time by Jamie Spencer, are the two to have on side. However, luck has whispered Pearl Opera, who could just be allowed an easy lead in a race with a significant lack of front-runners and is included just in case.

15:00 - As we've taken three in the first, we're going to have to find a banker in the seller (yes, I know that sounds like an oxymoron). With chief dangers Country Road (likes to hang) and Fly By White (last on both her outings this year) having big question marks over their heads, we have to turn to Viewing, who has 'personality traits' of her own but has at least been runner-up twice in similar company this year.

15:30 - Four-runner races are never ideal for 'Placepotting' as it's very precarious to bank on finding the winner, and the fillies' handicap looks no exception. Undulant Way undoubtedly has more to offer, highlighted by the way she slammed 11 rivals over today's trip at Windsor last time, and has to be involved, but Amistress is a tough little filly that has ran creditably on her last two starts and has often shaped as though she would benefit for the step up from ten furlongs.

16:00 - There's the temptation to bank on Piranha in what is just the second nursery of the year after she impressed when readily brushing aside Banksy on this surface at Kempton a little over two weeks ago. However, that horse was comfortably held at Southwell last night, leaving a slight doubt regards the strength of the form and Dark Ages, runner-up to subsequent listed winner Pyman's Theory on her second start and well ahead of next-time-out winner Lady Nickandy when winning at Nottingham last time, could well be underestimated by an official rating of 70.

16:30 - It wouldn't take much for a newcomer to win the six-furlong juvenile maiden such is the form of those that have already run, but Flosse has at least showed ability and is readily excused her effort last time when failing to stay seven furlongs. Back at a more suitable trip and getting weight from all bar one her rivals, it would be a surprise if she wasn't good enough to finish in the first three.

17:00 - If one wide-open sprint maiden wasn't enough, we end with another. Now, normally you'd expect a Sir Mark Prescott horse having had three runs on the all-weather and having acquired an official rating in the low 70's to be lining up in a handicap, but with Arabian Heights this isn't so. This suggests that the trainer feels a race of this nature is his for the taking and with Arabian Nights top on Timeform ratings and open to improvement, he'll do for me.

Selections: 12 lines
14:30     2, 4, 6
15:00     4
15:30     1, 2
16:00     2, 5
14:30     11
17:00     1

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Beauchamp Yorker belied odds of 20/1 to win a seven-furlong maiden at Newbury on his debut in 2009. He hasn't built on that in just three runs since (two this year) and has left Henry Candy. His new trainer is still looking for a first winner in Britain.

Nahab is a physically imposing filly who is lightly raced and has been much improved this year, winning a couple of handicaps on the all-weather. She was better than the bare result here last time and is worth considering.

Mr Hichens was formerly ungenuine but looked revived in 2010 when scoring in three handicaps. He hasn't been at his best on either start this year, but should be sharper now and has won over course and distance.

McConnell's best form has come at Southwell (five of six career wins there) and he is yet to score on polytrack. He was in good form when last seen in the winter and remains on a handy-looking mark, but the surface is a doubt.

Amazing Star is a strong-travelling sort who has done well in a handful of runs for this yard, being placed on all three starts this year (unlucky loser on the second occasion). He is just as effective on polytrack.

Frances Stuart was most progressive in maidens last year, making all in ready fashion over a mile at Salisbury. She was better than the bare result on her reappearance at Ascot (got tired) and remains with some potential.

Douze Points is an ex-Irish handicapper with a poor strike rate. He hasn't built on a good reappearance in three subsequent outings and isn't as good on all-weather as turf.

Snow Magic was two from three in all-weather handicap up to a mile and a quarter last season. She hasn't been at her best on turf this year and needs to bounce back no returned to polytrack.

Be A Devil is a fair handicapper but is yet to add to his win in a seven-furlong nursery here in 2009. He has been gelded since last seen over a year ago but isn't obviously well treated.

Rock Anthem is a hold-up sort who won a handicap over a mile at Sandown on his penultimate start in 2010. He isn't badly treated and goes well on polytrack, but his record first time out isn't great.

Islesman has a bit of a patchy profile, but improved when demoted from first in a course-and-distance handicap last week (drifted left a furlong out, but looked a bit unlucky) . He can race off the same mark as a result and has strong claims.

Irons On Fire made a promising start for Brian Meehan, confirming his debut promise when landing a maiden at Wolverhampton last October. He was a no show starting out for this yard here on his reappearance having been bought for 55,000 gns.

Protractor is a well-related colt who overcame greenness to land a four-runner maiden on the all-weather at Lingfield in March. He ran well in a handicap over this trip at Newmarket last time but even more is needed here.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1.    Islesman
2.    Nahab
3.    Frances Stuart

Timeform View: A tightly-knit handicap that may go to Islesman who was controversially demoted from first in a similar contest here last week. Nahab and Frances Stuart also hold good claims.

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A close inspection of this year's statistics confirms that Roger Varian has just about the best strike-rate around at present and Dark Promise, who won a handicap over this trip in fine style on her reappearance, could well be adding to the up-and-coming trainer's fine spell in the listed Pipalong Stakes at Pontefract this afternoon. She looks to have the requisite ability to make her mark in listed company and is open to much more improvement than the likes of Off Chance and Folly Bridge this afternoon.

Maxamillion Bounty bumped into a big Mark Johnston improver when runner-up in a maiden at Hamilton last time and should find the switch to handicap company more to his liking, particularly with the slight drop in trip expected to suit judged on the way he tired after making the running over nine furlongs at Hamilton. At the current price of 4.9, he's one to be with against largely more exposed rivals.

Our final selection of the day comes in the third race on Southwell's evening card. Dubai Gem, who is having just her third start for Olivia Maylam, showed she's got enough to get off the mark at last when second at Ayr last month on soft ground. That effort gives hope that she may take to this unique surface and if she does she won't have much to worry about from the rest of the modest opposition, so at 8.2 she's well worth supporting.

Recommendations
Back Dark Promise @ 2.72 Pontefract 16.00
Back Maxamillion Bounty @ 4.9 Pontefract 17.30
Back Dubai Gem @ 8.2 Southwell 19.40

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Dark Promise is a progressive filly who rounded off 2010 with two wins in mile-and-a-quarter handicaps at Lingfield, and took a big step forward when running away with a similar event over a mile at Newmarket last time. She still has more to offer.

Folly Bridge progressed into a useful performer in 2010, winning two handicaps over six and seven furlongs. She struggled in this grade on her reappearance, but has since won a handicap in good style and looks worth another try at this level. Her stamina for the trip is unproven.

Fontley landed a brace over handicaps over a mile at Sandown last summer. She ran well under top weight in a handicap at Ascot on her reappearance but has been below form in two outings since and others here look open to more improvement.

Gobama improved in 2010 when winning handicaps over a mile at Newmarket and Thirsk. She added to her tally at Hamilton last month and didn't run too badly in this grade in Italy last time. Others are more progressive here, however.

Kinky Afro wasn't disgraced on most of her starts in pattern company in 2010. She generally struggled in Dubai earlier this year and was well held in a handicap at Royal Ascot last time.

Law of The Range rounded off 2010 with a game win in September and has tasted further success this time round, winning handicaps at Ascot and Sandown on her last two starts. She looks well worth a try at this level.

Off Chance made the breakthrough at listed level when winning this race 12 months ago. She has been just as good in defeat in two runs this year and there was nothing wrong with her latest handicap run either. She is best coming off a strong pace.

Snow Dancer is a tough ran reliable performer who was better than ever when leading late for her second win of the year over a mile and a quarter here in April. She has been held off higher marker since and was outclassed at this level last time.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1.    Dark Promise
2.    Off Chance
3.    Law of The Range

Timeform View: Dark Promise is on a sharp upward curve and, despite being upped in class, the way she won at Newmarket last time means she has to be considered very seriously. Last year's winner Off Chance and the progressive Law of The Range could chase her home.

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18:50 - Janet's Pearl is only modest, but there's not much for her to beat in the opener and as a consistent sort with plenty in her favour, she appeals as banker material.

19:20 - You're unlikely to go far wrong if siding with the first two in the betting in the sprint maiden. Imelda Mayhem has a couple of solid efforts to her name and Van der Art is obviously well regarded based on her position in the market on debut and can do more to justify that tonight.

19:50 - Lady Amakhala's success over course and distance last time is a bit iffy and she looks there to be shot at after a rise. King of The Celts and Dragonera, also arrive on the back of wins and are the obvious ones to have against the favourite.

20:20 - Elusive Prince is a dual winner at the track, but the latter of those hasn't worked out particularly well and he's been down the field at York since, so he's another favourite worth being against. Mappin Time, who is dropping in grade, is one to oppose him with along with the reliable Indian Ballad.

20:50 - Plenty have questions to answer in the penultimate leg, so the solid ones really stand out. Petsas Pleasure and Desert Hunter are both at the top of their game and the latter has some solid form at the track, so they strike as ideal types for the pot.

21:20 - Finally, the three-year-old maiden is more open, in my opinion, than the betting suggests and as such I'm going to have the obvious choice Shalloon accompanied by Tom Tate's interesting newcomer Eagle Rock.

Selections:
18:50 - 5
19:20 - 2, 6
19:50 - 2, 3
20:20 - 2, 3
20:50 - 4, 10
21:20 - 3, 6
= 32 lines

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El Viento won twice in blinkers last year and has returned to form with the headgear reapplied this year, finishing in the frame in handicaps at Newmarket and this track. He is going to need a bit more to overcome this mark, though.

Indian Ballad is a consistent sprinter who won four nurseries in 2010 and has found further improvement htis year, finishing just ahead of El Viento over this course and distance last time. This is his best trip and he shouldn't be far away.

Mappin Time is a pretty useful sprinter, but he's had plenty of tries now and it's hard to see him finding the necessary improvement to land this after two modest efforts, unless first-time cheekpieces revive him.

Julius Geezer was a speedy two-year-old, winning the Lily Agnes at Chester and finishing third in a listed race at York. He has been below form in handicaps this term, though the trip was too far the last twice so this will be more suitable.

Elusive Prince was well beaten in a red-hot York handicap last time, but looked a sprinter very much on the up when winning twice over course and distance prior to that and is well worth another chance.

Serena's Pride win a six-furlong maiden at Lingfield in 2010 (when often highly tried) and put several modest efforts behind her when winning at Warwick last time. She is bidding for the follow up in a much tougher race.

Defence Council failed to progress for Howard Johnson after a trailblazing maiden win last year and his form for this yard this year has been very hit and miss. He's well treated on his latest run but expecting a repeat is risky.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1.    Elusive Prince
2.    Indian Ballad
3.    El Viento

Timeform View: Elusive Prince remains a sprinter with a bright future despite a blip at York last time and he can get back on the winning trail back at a venue where he's already scored twice. Indian Ballad and El Viento also have track form and can fill the minor berths.

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