TimeformBlog

The mile-and-three-quarter handicap at York (15:10) has one of the day's biggest fields, but of the 19 declared to run there are just two three-year-olds, and Defence of Duress and State Opera are both among the more interesting runners, particularly the former, who has run well in three competitive handicaps this year, all the while suggesting that we haven't quite seen the best of him yet. Most recently, Defence of Duress finished second in a 12-furlong handicap at Ripon and although that effort represented improvement in form terms, he left the impression that neither track nor run of the race played to his strengths, seeming to pay for pressing on a long way out in a truly-run race. The wide expanse of the Knavesmire should be much more to Defence of Duress' liking, while the step up to a mile and three quarters is unlikely to be a problem (by Motivator from the family of Suave Dancer), so today he can prove an unchanged mark of 81 underestimates his ability.

Frankie Dettori returns from an enforced absence at Newmarket today where his best chance of a winner is arguably My Freedom in the mile handicap that concludes the card (17:20). My Freedom announced himself a useful prospect when bolting up in a maiden at Nottingham on his debut in 2010 and it's probably fair to say that things haven't really gone his way in two outings since. My Freedom returned to action in a handicap over a mile at Newcastle late last month where he finished second, beaten three quarters of a length, though he plainly shaped best on the day, the fact he was forced to switch when chasing the all-the-way winner probably the difference between victory and defeat. He has been raised just 1 lb for that effort, which is almost certainly lenient and My Freedom can prove that the case today.

Among all the excellent racing on offer, it might be overlooked that there's a pretty decent race at Chepstow this evening in the shape of the mile handicap (20:05). Six of the seven runners are fairly useful or better older horses, but the one that stands out a mile is the sole three-year-old, Belgian Bill. Belgian Bill won a hot handicap at Doncaster on his reappearance this year and put up and even better effort in defeat in the Britannia at Royal Ascot last time, finishing fourth, but looking unlucky not to push the winner Sagramor very close indeed bearing in mind that he met trouble in his run through the race. Belgian Bill has gone up 3 lb for Ascot which means he is giving weight away to all bar one of his more battle-hardened rivals, but put simply, if he matches the form he showed last time, he'll take all the beating today.

Recommendations
Back Defence of Duress @ 7.0 15:10 York
Back My Freedom @ 7.0 17:20 Newmarket
Back Belgian Bill @ 2.58 20:05 Chepstow

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