Tightfisted

Let's say you've been awarded a lump sum of £30,000 (after slipping on a wet floor) and you've decided to invest the money following the top layers in a certain laying competition. You've checked out their form after 3,200 races and can't decide on the best strategy. Should you follow the top layer to win £30 per lay, the top 3 layers to win £10 per lay, the worst performing layers as they're due for a good run or stick to all 15 layers to win £2 per lay? [img]http://images.onesite.com/community.betfair.com/user/tightfisted/17e1680011ded619b0b8684e9d631663.jpg?v=246000[/img] Anyway 'The Comp' finishes after 32,000 races, I've got the data for 25,000 races but I haven't yet done all the calculations because I need some interactive input. I have the next 3,200 races which will restart...

After 10,000 bets, the level staking strategy has more in the bank but may not be in the game when the miracle occurs. [img]http://community.cdnbf.net/community.betfair.com/user/tightfisted/5c6eaced2c53e766203dd1df8fe8c417.jpg?v=243600[/img]

[b] One more reason to quit level staking.[/b] [img]http://community.cdnbf.net/community.betfair.com/user/tightfisted/f24f4099974499960487a99921a09b7e.jpg?v=215400[/img] [b] Note how small level stakes profits are amplified by fractional stakes[/b] [img]http://community.cdnbf.net/community.betfair.com/user/tightfisted/743a852cef93c61f9fea64f239f5d3fd.jpg?v=248400[/img]

[b]It's important to have a bank that will help you get through the lean times and a strategy to increase your profits when you hit the mother-lode instead of hitting the first fence.[/b] [img]http://community.cdnbf.net/community.betfair.com/user/tightfisted/d1cc0193bba14b053ea98332a9367450.jpg?v=223800[/img] [b] Some people say level stakes is the only way, I'm not so sure.[/b] [img]http://community.cdnbf.net/community.betfair.com/user/tightfisted/fbdae346bd2c62bf5c109d23c8546ed3.jpg?v=269100[/img] [b] Level Stakes P/L vs Fraction (1/100) of Bank P/L [/b] [img]http://community.cdnbf.net/community.betfair.com/user/tightfisted/1df317faceb53d0fa69c80be3540ebbc.jpg?v=201000[/img] [i] The full sized graphs can be viewed on my pictures...

"System 3" with further price comparisons. [img]http://community.cdnbf.net/community.betfair.com/user/tightfisted/4702bcbc47031663d2962e185a2bd0f2.jpg?v=236400[/img] [img]http://community.cdnbf.net/community.betfair.com/user/tightfisted/d8ecaee226781208d41aa44029592cdb.jpg?v=235800[/img] [img]http://community.cdnbf.net/community.betfair.com/user/tightfisted/b0b2aa18da63a8db7d480cc831d28de3.jpg?v=235800[/img] [img]http://community.cdnbf.net/community.betfair.com/user/tightfisted/cddf2c1b48c3cf5889dba8beacd49d9c.jpg?v=233400[/img] 2013 Update.... [img]http://images.onesite.com/community.betfair.com/user/tightfisted/b050915fbf3343ae2562e4526e7bf7ac.jpg?v=203400[/img]

System 2 comparison, same price limit over 4 years to a £10 Stake. [img]http://community.cdnbf.net/community.betfair.com/user/tightfisted/6561340a076e74ac7cac899ed81e6318.jpg?v=220200[/img] "System 3" comparison, same price limit over 4 years to a £10 Stake. [img]http://community.cdnbf.net/community.betfair.com/user/tightfisted/a7b8621aa95c666c565122159cebeb90.jpg?v=262800[/img]

The reason I haven't been keeping a close eye on system 1 is that my system 2 has been under performing as well. I just hope it was the unseasonal hot weather in spring that's to blame. [b] From 1st Jan - 30th Sep 2012[/b] [img]http://community.cdnbf.net/community.betfair.com/user/tightfisted/ea6b95f888eec9aa8df5fe0147240f35.jpg?v=234600[/img] Just to confuse matters... "System 3" [img]http://community.cdnbf.net/community.betfair.com/user/tightfisted/1401f960633e7f0c68eb53777796c782.jpg?v=249600[/img] with a further breakdown in prices just in case there are those that still lay drifters and bad last-time runners. [img]http://community.cdnbf.net/community.betfair.com/user/tightfisted/37edc1f44b28f82f561ae505ec8e5f57.jpg?v=227400[/img]...

Did I say this system was a good earner? Well, it seems as though I haven't been keeping a close enough eye on it lately. [:wink:] [img]http://community.cdnbf.net/community.betfair.com/user/tightfisted/cdc8bd55e4ac08bbac458115ca4a4b00.jpg?v=220200[/img] [b] 1st Jan 2009 to 31st Dec 2011[/b] Let's hope I don't have a repeat of last year's Oct-Dec results. [img]http://community.cdnbf.net/community.betfair.com/user/tightfisted/6d98ccb45d84372ff52790d793ae5170.jpg?v=232800[/img]

Back to square one? [img]http://community.cdnbf.net/community.betfair.com/user/tightfisted/5dfb9e7d779334cb06975de0a8d7e2e0.jpg?v=222600[/img] [img]http://community.cdnbf.net/community.betfair.com/user/tightfisted/18f2bc242b64faf40bf23271b6e2be66.jpg?v=225600[/img]