TheSnapper

Current Bank: $1608,34 (+ 712,29% profit)
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $510,65 (+ 2453,25 % profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00

(I withdrew $54,00 from Betfair and sent it to the reserve bank, which now totals $804,58)
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What a weekend for Mr. Kelly and I! No drinking champagne is allowed in the hospital, so we took it outside to the park. Mr. Kelly fired off a few celebratory rounds from his .357 magnum handgun. Luckily, nobody was injured in the ensuing mayhem and panic!

Staggering profits were made by THE PERFECT GAMBLER, Mr.Kelly. He racked up 12/14 wins for a profit of $219,20. I also hit 9/9 winners for $269,50 in profits.

Nothing but guns, bullets, booze and piles of cash for us this weeend! You can start to imagine what the party will be like in Florida,...man!


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THE THIRD DOUBLING

$198-$396-$792-$1584.... the 4th doubling will be $3168. Probably in June, but the way Mr.Kelly is going, he might make it before me!

TheSnapper's statistics since 08.03 (using half-Kelly stakes)

Bets 353
Wins 246
Losses 107
Win % 69.6%
Units of profit (if using a level stake) +85,80

Total stake $6,519,91
Total Profit $1,132,84
Edge 17,3%

So, I've doubled my bank 3 times (Mr.Kelly has already doubled his 4 times) in 5 months, although we can say that most of this has been since March, so let's say 3 months, or 353 bets. It should be clear to everyone that Kelly Staking is the fastest way to grow your bank, as I have demonstrated. If you have been having trouble increasing your bank, you need to go back through this blog to the articles I wrote about Kelly Staking and compounding your profits. It only takes patience and math. Nothing else. I don't know  a damn thing about the horses I'm laying....couldn't care less, in fact.

Anyway, Mr. Kelly and I are off to finish the three bottles of champagne and fire off a few more blasts from the .357...Take care everyone...

Current Bank: $1483,28 (+ 649,13% profit)
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $344,77 (+ 1623,70 % profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00
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A new all-time high for the bank of $1483,28 was hit yesteday. Mr. Kelly also stormed back with a profit of $53,29.
His bets were:
Runner    Stake    Odds    Liability    Result
Sharp Bullet    $22,03    2,72    $37,89    $22,03
Tenhoo    $31,67    1,99    $31,35    -$31,35
Loukaja    $22,88    2,48    $33,86    $22,88
Naledi    $19,20    2,7    $32,64    $19,20
Tro Nesa    $20,53    4    $61,59    $20,53
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The reserve bank, invested in stocks and bonds, is worth $750,58 as of Friday.

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Thanks to Mr.Kelly for writing the blog yesterday. Unfortunately, I was in hospital following a disagreement with Trader Phil. We have ended our cooperation on "mutual agreement"...



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A few words today on the Trader Phil situation.

Not all of our searches for edges will be successful. Sometimes you will find something, but most times you won't. That is why it is crucial to build up a small bank using an edge...by starting small it tests the validity of your edge without risking your bank. As Mr. Kelly always says, "A GOOD EDGE PAYS IT'S OWN WAY". Don't forget it.

How much did I start with? Look at the top of this blog. That's right, $198. And some people wrote me saying it was crazy to start off with such a small bank, and that it was unrealistic to think you can grow $198 into $100,000+.

They are wrong, and Mr.Kelly and I are proving it. Together, we have now doubled our starting capital 3 times.

Stay tuned!

Current Bank: $1383,17(+ 598,57% profit)
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $236,96 (+ 1,084,80 % profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00

Trader Phil's Bank: $84,72 (- 15,38% profit)
Trader Phil's Start Bank: $100,00



Howdy y'all!

This is John-Boy Kelly writin' fo' TheSnapper today fo' yo' all, ah reckon. Ah's so'ry t'repo't thet TheSnapper is unable t'update th' blog today on account o' he is currently in horspital follerin' a fight wif Trader Phil, ah reckon. TheSnapper fired Trader Phil af'er he lost mo'e moeny, which prompped Trader Phil t'throw a chair at TheSnapper. Th' Snapper responded wif a box of fishin' tackle on over Phil's haid. They they began rasslin' an' crashed down a flight of stairs, off th' dock an' into th' water...ennyway...to make a long sto'y sho't, Trader Phil is gone an' TheSnapper will probably return agin t'morry.




Th' docko's say TheSnapper is doin' fine an' shoud be able t'walk agin soon, as enny fool kin plainly see. He axed me t'write th' blog today fo' him an' say a few wo'ds about tradin'...



It is mighty clear t'me thet th' main principle which all gamblers sh'd foller is th' concepp of compundin' bank growth. Thar is a mathematically proven oppimum solushun fo' stake sizes. Th' problem wif Trader Phil is thet he is still makin' menny bets which is not oppimum, dawgone it....in fack they is nearly ran'om, dawgone it. Ran'om bettin' on Betfair will kill yer bank rather quickly. Y'all usually kin expoeck t'lose 3-5% per bet.

nnyway, thass whut ah have been tryin' t'tell TheSnapper an' ah reckon he now unnerstan's me.

ah's glad thet Trader Phil is gone, an' let me tell yo' all whuffo' thet is.

So, remember, tradin' is tradin' an' bettin' is bettin'. Don't mix them togither unless yo' kin improve th' results of one of them as a gamblin' system, dawgone it. ah recommend jest stickin' t'1 bet per event, when yo' knows th' edge an' yer bank. Shet mah mouth! Let th' math does th' ress fo' yo'.

Current Bank: $1408,71 (+ 611,47% profit)
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $166,27 (+ 731,35% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00

Trader Phil's Bank: $92,09 (- 7,91% profit)
Trader Phil's Start Bank: $100,00
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Well, after hitting a high of $1484, I hit a few losers and sank into the red, ending up losing -3,7% of my bank. Mr. Kelly took it on the chin yesterday, losing 3/7 lays for a loss of -$50,54 (-23% of his bank).

Trader Phil still couldn't manage to turn a profit. He hit a high of $116, then left a steamer to run and got hit for a -$24,40 loss. (We had words after that race, again, unfortunately... Mr. Kelly wants him fired, but I'll let him have one more day.) Trader Phil has greened up 7/18 races for a total of $3,62. The other 11/18 races produced a loss of -$11,53. So, you can see why Trader Phil could be packing his bags very soon...

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Current Bank: $1463,06 (+ 638,92% profit)
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $216,81 (+ 984,05% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00

Trader Phil's Bank: $98,11 (- 1,89% profit)
Trader Phil's Start Bank: $100,00

(I transferred $45 to the reserve bank this morning. The reserve bank now has $717,54, including $68 in cash, which is great because the minimum investment I can make is $30, so I will invest the cash today  and update "The Demon" and check on my crack(-smoking)investment team.
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Well, yesterday was a fine day all-around. I made only three bets and hit a new all-time high of $1463,06. Mr. Kelly has been rallying...he won 6/8 lays for a total of $57,97 ...a bank increase of 36%.
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But now Trader Phil is causing me some trouble. I called him into the office and we had a table-pounding argument that still has not been resolved. To tell you the truth, I'm thinking of firing the guy...

The discussion went like this:

Snapper: Well, Phil, I'm wondering why you have only greened up 6/23 bets you made. By random selection, you should be able to hit 12/23.

Phil: Boss, it ain't that easy. There's not so much volatility in the Place Market as the Win market. The prices don't move so much.

Snapper: Well, look..if you only get the market direction right 6/23 times, that means that you are making 17/23 bets at full Kelly stakes without a profitable edge. The amount you have greened up on the 6 trades you made is only $3,58...it's not enough to cover the losses. Mr. Kelly and I were talking about it and he says you are doomed unless you can improve your trading...You need to green-up OVER 50% of your trades or you are screwed...

Phil: Picking the drifters ain't as easy as it looks, boss...

Snapper: Listen, if you can't find more drifters ,I'm going to cut you back to a fixed stake...and if you still can't find more drifters, you're fired...and the boys in Holland want their $100 back. We need to get to Florida, and we don't want you to hold us back.

Phil: But you only gave me $100..how am I supposed to trade with such a small amount?

Snapper: Well, if you can't double a small bank, you can't double a big bank. Now get out of here...and put out that damned cigarette!

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Current Bank: $1371,63 (+592,61% profit)
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $158,84 (+694,20% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00

Trader Phil's Bank: $103,50 (+3,50% profit)
Trader Phil's Start Bank: $100,00

(I withdrew $11,50 from Betfair today and sent it to the reserve bank ("The Demon"). The reserve bank now totals $685,72)
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Trader Phil is back in profit after a few days under water. I'm puzzled that he has only greened up 2/12 trades. Even by random guessing he should hit around 6/12. So far, he has only greened up $0,70 worth of profit, so it is rather likely that his $3,50 profit to date is just random luck...but it is too early to say anything, the guy has only had 12 bets. However, I recall that there were several green ups available before the off that, in retrospect, should have been taken. I think Trader Phil will have to have a policy of taking any trading profits above, say,  10% profit of stake...I'll have a word with him on the subject...( maybe hanging around with Mr.Kelly has made him too aggressive in his trading!)

Meanwhile, I hit another all-time high of $1371,63. The last high was back on 31.04, so you can see it has been 9 days and 45 bets since I hit a new high. That's how it goes, sometimes it takes a few days, sometimes a week or more, but really it depends on how many bets and the stakes you are using. Keep track of your highs and lows...they tell you a lot about your betting system.
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NO SUCH THING AS GOOD OR BAD LUCK


And that's exactly what separates the pros from the amateurs. Amateur punters don't understand that they are dealing with randomness in most cases. They think when they win it is because of their "great insight" or "special talent" at gambling, or the "inside knowledge" of some tout in a cheap suit. They don't for a minute consider it to be just random chance. However, when they lose it is always just "bad luck", or a "fixed race" or a "dumb jockey" or whatever...

So when they go on a winning streak, they think they have uncovered a "great system" and pour more and more money into it. Inevitably the winning streak comes to a screeching end, and they then make their second big mistake - they assume that their "bad luck" will end and things will return to normal. They think that if they just stick to their "talent" and "insight" they can overcome their "bad luck" and return to profitability. They refuse to accept that their "talent" is only just dumb luck.

I've got some shocking news for you...pros know there is no such thing as "good" or "bad" luck...there are only probabilities. You must simply treat gambling like a coin flip. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. And lose you shall, my friends... guaranteed. However,you only need to win a few more times than you lose to succeed.

To win at this game, you need to accept that IT IS NOT UP TO YOU and THERE IS NOTHING SPECIAL ABOUT YOU.

Current Bank: $1349,34 (+581,48% profit)
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $148,13 (+640,65% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00

Trader Phil's Bank: $89,34 (-10,66% profit)
Trader Phil's Start Bank: $100,00
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Hi Everyone, I'd like to welcome my old friend, Trader Phil, to join this blog and help me on my quest to reach Florida.



Phil has a unique hybrid approach to betting and trading. He likes to lay horses early in the betting at a price he likes. If the horse drifts in price, he greens it up for a profit before the race and walks away to the next race. If the price drops below what he laid it at, he leaves it to run.

As Phil explains it, the actual value between early prices and steamers is very little. Steamers win only slightly more than drifters. So, Phil greens up and profits whenever he can and leaves the steamers to run. The green-up trading profits build up over time while the runners that are left to run rather "even out" between winners and losers over time. Hmmn...I'm only going to give the guy $100 and we'll see if he can do anything with that. Let's see if this strategy can keep Phil dressed in the sharp style he enjoys so much.

So, I have lent Phil a start bank of $100 from my reserve bank of $684. He uses full-Kelly staking for his lay liability and he will green-up all drifters before the race. So, he's not exactly a trader, but he is not a pure gamber , either. He's rather a hybrid better.

Good luck, Phil, welcome aboard!
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Too bad, Phil hit a loser on his last play of the day and took him from a 20% profit down to a 10% loss. I am  a few bucks short of my all-time high, and am still closing in on the third doubling ($1600).

Trader Phil's Results today (his first day on the job!) a loss of -$10,66

Runner    Stake    Odds    Liability    Green Up    Result
Downward Spiral    $14,55    1,55    $8,00    $0,60    $0,60
Bobby Donald    $8,12    2,7    $13,80        $8,12
Long Journey Home    $12,70    2,4    $17,89    $0,10    $0,10
Captive Audience    $7,37    3,8    $20,68        $7,37
Miss Champagne    $10,65    2,2    $12,78        -$12,78
Sparkling Air    $6,89    3,85    $19,64        $6,89
Across The Rhine    $8,06    3,6    $20,96        -$20,96



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Current Bank: $1179,37 (+495,64% profit)
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $146,98 (+634,90% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00
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So, you can see for yourself the wild roller-coaster Mr. Kelly is riding. Up to 1200% profit one day, and then down to 634% the next! Which goes to show you that with full-Stakes Kelly betting, Mr.Kelly has the same 50-50 chance of either doubling or halving his bank over the same amount of time. That's the mathematics of it. The half-Kelly staker improves this to 75-25%, but has lower profits over the long-run. That's not an opinion, by the way, that's the math of it.
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I'm working on a full stats analysis today if I can find the time. I'll try and post it later. I think it will clearly show how Mr.Kelly and I have nearly the same edge, strike rate and level stake profits, but he has more profits in the long run (in percentage terms) than I have, and we both easily defeat a level-stake better. This is a demonstration of the effect of this mathematics in practice. Every gambler should know this.



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The Race to Florida Stats since 08.03.2011

TheSnapper



Bets: 299
Wins: 205
Losses: 94
Win%: 69,7%
Average Odds Laid: 2,73
Level Stakes Profit: +65,03 pts.
Stake: $5095,16
Liability: $8115,57
Profit: $703,87
Edge: 13,8%

Mr.Kelly



Bets: 248
Wins: 172
Losses: 76
Win%: 69,3%
Average Odds Laid: 3,06
Level Stakes Profit: +45,02 pts
Stake: $1833,50
Liability: $3341,57
Profit: $121,02
Edge: 6,6%

(A point to note: Mr.Kelly has just dropped from a bank of over $250, so his stats are a bit skewed regarding edge which should be in the 10-15% range)

Current Bank: $1175,46 (+493,67% profit)
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $178,64 (+793,20% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00
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Mr. Kelly hit a high of $261,77 (a staggering +1208,85% profit of his original bank)yesterday, before hitting a few losers and falling back. His bets yesterday were as follows:

Runner    Stake    Odds    Liability    Result
Hes So Cool    $17,45    2,28    $22,34    $17,45
Appeal Denied    $12,90    4    $38,70    $12,90
Musharakaat    $13,86    3,5    $34,65    $13,86
Baraathen    $16,97    2,9    $32,24    -$32,24
Ginzan    $15,08    2,39    $20,96    $15,08
Dirar    $20,40    3,65    $34,13    $20,40
Meydan Style    $28,14    1,83    $23,36    $28,14
Jenari    $17,15    3,9    $49,74    -$49,74
Silver Adonis    $13,62    3,45    $33,39    -$33,39

So, you can see that Mr. Kelly enjoys betting using 10-20% of his bank as a maximum liability, but that drops to under 10% if he lays horses with lower odds. Why would that be? Well, remeber that Mr.Kelly doesn't care about a single, particular bet so much as he cares about the long-run...the overall increase in his bank. By laying more of his bank against long shots, he can increase his bank more quickly by re-investing those winnings in the next race...building his bank through compounding his profits and using the winnings to prodice even greater winnings. Ask Warren Buffet if compounding profits works very well!.
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My investment demon has a value of $684,07 this week, which is $22,97 more than I paid in:

    Units    Value USD    Fund %    Model %
               
Stocks    3,782208    $335,18    49,00%    50,00%
Bonds    3,512787    $337,07    49,27%    50,00%
Cash        $11,81       
        $684,07       

When I reach another bank high ($1363) I will add more from Betfair profits.

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Current Bank: $1137,92 (+474,71% profit)
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $186,18 (+830,90% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00
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Mr. Kelly stormed to a new high of $218,12 this weekend, before falling back to $186,18. I have had a poor start to the month, dropping another -$61,18 yesterday. But that's the way it goes...

Here's the chart updated. You can also see the good progress of my reserve bank, invested in a stocks and bonds investment plan known as "Shannon's Demon", under the careful eye of my Dutch financial team. They pushed it up to $683,84, which is a profit of $22,60 this month.


There have been one or two followers who expressed surprise that I would invest Betfair profits in stocks, "That's so risky!". Oh my! What do you think you are doing on Betfair, man? That's right- slapping your money down and rolling the dice, just like my lads in Amsterdam. No difference. The only difference between an investment and a gamble, as John Kelly noted, is a - sign in front of the expected profit.