TheSnapper

Current Bank: $1371,63 (+592,61% profit)
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $158,84 (+694,20% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00

Trader Phil's Bank: $103,50 (+3,50% profit)
Trader Phil's Start Bank: $100,00

(I withdrew $11,50 from Betfair today and sent it to the reserve bank ("The Demon"). The reserve bank now totals $685,72)
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Trader Phil is back in profit after a few days under water. I'm puzzled that he has only greened up 2/12 trades. Even by random guessing he should hit around 6/12. So far, he has only greened up $0,70 worth of profit, so it is rather likely that his $3,50 profit to date is just random luck...but it is too early to say anything, the guy has only had 12 bets. However, I recall that there were several green ups available before the off that, in retrospect, should have been taken. I think Trader Phil will have to have a policy of taking any trading profits above, say,  10% profit of stake...I'll have a word with him on the subject...( maybe hanging around with Mr.Kelly has made him too aggressive in his trading!)

Meanwhile, I hit another all-time high of $1371,63. The last high was back on 31.04, so you can see it has been 9 days and 45 bets since I hit a new high. That's how it goes, sometimes it takes a few days, sometimes a week or more, but really it depends on how many bets and the stakes you are using. Keep track of your highs and lows...they tell you a lot about your betting system.
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NO SUCH THING AS GOOD OR BAD LUCK


And that's exactly what separates the pros from the amateurs. Amateur punters don't understand that they are dealing with randomness in most cases. They think when they win it is because of their "great insight" or "special talent" at gambling, or the "inside knowledge" of some tout in a cheap suit. They don't for a minute consider it to be just random chance. However, when they lose it is always just "bad luck", or a "fixed race" or a "dumb jockey" or whatever...

So when they go on a winning streak, they think they have uncovered a "great system" and pour more and more money into it. Inevitably the winning streak comes to a screeching end, and they then make their second big mistake - they assume that their "bad luck" will end and things will return to normal. They think that if they just stick to their "talent" and "insight" they can overcome their "bad luck" and return to profitability. They refuse to accept that their "talent" is only just dumb luck.

I've got some shocking news for you...pros know there is no such thing as "good" or "bad" luck...there are only probabilities. You must simply treat gambling like a coin flip. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. And lose you shall, my friends... guaranteed. However,you only need to win a few more times than you lose to succeed.

To win at this game, you need to accept that IT IS NOT UP TO YOU and THERE IS NOTHING SPECIAL ABOUT YOU.