TheSnapper

TheSnapper's Bank: $1755,74(+ 786,74% profit)
TheSnapper's Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $2 617,29 (+ 12986,45% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00

Shannon's Demon Value: $1 016,91 ($967,04 start capital)
Demonic Profits:  $49,87
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Mr. Kelly hit an all-time high of $2 707,25 yesterday before falling back to $2617,29. He went 3/4 and was a bit lucky that his loser was only a partial match, costing him only $89,96. He ended up the day with a profit of $197,56.

I went 4/4 yesterday for a bank increase of 8,4% ($136,44).

So, together Mr. Kelly and I have piled up $4373,03, plus $49,87 in evil profits from my demonic investments chugging away in the background. (In truth, they are still too small to really call them a Shannon system, the difference between the stock and bond fund is still only about $1.00. I will keep adding more funds as I win them and we'll get it going later..maybe this summer. I will show everyone how Shannon's Demon works amd how to make compounding profits from it.)

This is from a starting capital of $218 in December. If we can keep banging away and rolling over this bank just a few more times we will be all done. I am confident we can, after all, we have done it 4 times already in less than 6 months. (Mr.Kelly has doubled his own bank a staggering 7 times!)
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KEEP RECORDS!

One thing both Mr.Kelly and I agree on is the importance of keeping records of your betting. Why? To calculate the statistics. Why do that? To calculate your edge. Why do I need that? To judge the correct stake you should be using. Why is this important? You will go broke if you are betting too much and you will lose money by betting too little.

In short, you need records to check your progress. How else can you tell if you are going the right way? How else can you judge your edge? How else can you decide to make changes?

If you don't keep records you are costing yourself profits. It's that simple.

OK. What records should I keep? Simply: Wins, Losses, Profits, Stakes, Liability and Betfair commission . These stats will tell you everything you need to know about your edge over time. You don't need anything else. Keep your stats in Excel if you have it, or even on paper if you have to. But do it.

Current Bank: $$1 619,30 (+ 717,83% profit)
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $2 419,73 (+ 11998,65%% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00
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Mr. Kelly broke even and I made a 5,9% bank increase($79,86) on 5 runners each. Mr.Kelly suffered a record $405 loss on one runner. (I hid the .357 magnum, just to be safe ...)
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Current Bank: $1539,44 (+ 677,49%% profit)
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $2 417,97 (+ 11 989,85% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00
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Solid profits again yesterday for both of us: Mr. Kelly went 3/4 for a bank gain of 9,3% ($205,24). I went 4/5 for a gain of 6,8% ($99,92)
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Current Bank: $$1 439,62 (+ 627,08% profit)
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $$2 138,69 (+ 10593,45% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00
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Yesterday was a solid day for both Mr.Kelly and me. I went 4/5 for +9,3% increase in my bank ($108). Mr. Kelly hit 4/6 for an increase of 7,5% ($151,15).
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So, for June I have adjusted my Kelly stakes. This is a good idea, and I recommend that everyone should always adjust your stakes according to you calculated edge. The idea here is to prevent overstaking, which is toxic to your bankroll and fatal to your betting career. But don't adjust your stake too often or by too much. Evolution, not revolution! The reason you should be careful about this is that you will have ups and downs and you don't want to risk overstaking while you are in a hot period, or understaking while you are in a downswing. So occasionally check your stats and make adjustements.

My calculated layers edge is a solid 9,3%. I have readjusted my stakes to 5% layers edge although this might be a bit too conservative. I might move it up to 7% if it holds for June. I will try to keep my stakes based on my layers edge minus 2%, so I will try to keep it around 7%. The point is that it can never be more than 9% (anything under this is fine).

Mr.Kelly's full-Kelly stake (maximum liability) ranges, based on a 5% edge, are now as follows:

1.01-1.10 0,50%   
1.11-1,25 1,25%
1.26-1,50 2,50%
1,51-1,76 3,75%
1,76-2,00 5,00%
2,01-2,20 6,00%
2,21-2,50 7,50%
2,51-2,74 8,75%
2,75-3,00 10,00%   
3,01--3,5 12,50%   
3,51-4,00 15,00%

Notice that Mr.Kelly is not interested in risking much of his bank laying heavy favourites at 1.10. He is much more eager to lay outsiders. Why? Well, he wants to grow his bank quickly, and when laying 4.00 shots he has a 75% chance of winning. He knows that his bank will grow faster with many small wins than with occasional big upsets.
                                       
My half-Kelly stakes are exactly half of these. Adjust, adapt, modify and survive long enough to reproduce in large numbers. As in biology, as in gambling...Mr. Darwin would agree.

Current Bank: $1331,05 (+ 572,25%% profit)
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $1987,54 (+ 9837,70% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00

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Ouch! Both Mr. Kelly and I got slammed yesterday, both by a bit of bad luck and by some good horses. Although Mr. Kelly won 5/8 races, 4 of his wins were only partial matches, so he ended up losing 19,2% of his bank. (The winners couldn't make up for the losers)

I also went down yesterday, down -13,9%. I lost 5/8 races. So, some bad luck all around, but it can't be helped. Mr. Kelly certainly isn't worried. He points out that he has had far worse days before, and he knows that both the odds and time are on his side.

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Adjustments to the Kelly laying stakes

Thanks to a dedicated follower of this blog, tier, who helped to point out a few corrections to the Kelly stakes being used. Basically, my calculations were off for low priced runners and higher priced runners. In effect, I was over-staking the favourites and actually under-staking outsiders. It didn't have much effect on profits yet because I rarely laid heavy favourites...but still, I am paranoid about overstaking, espcecially after the beating we received yesterday!

I recalculated the Kelly stakes for lay bets based on a 5% edge, which is lower than my stats show (9%), because I want to be a bit on the conservative side of the Kelly limit.

I have adjusted the Kelly ranges, so that now they go from 0,5% to 15% for Mr. Kelly and 0,25% to 7,5
% for myself.

Thanks to everyone for your help and contributions. My philosophy is that it is good to be open, flexible and thoughtful. I accept advice and criticism, and I change and adjust as necessary.

My motto is, "Evolution, not revolution"

Current Bank: $$1 531,74 (+ 666,24%% profit)
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $2 461,84 (+ 12 209,20% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00
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Well, Mr. Kelly has blown past me for a $900 lead in the race. It was a quiet day yesterday. He went 2/2 for a gain of 10,8% of his bank ($267,90)

I only had 2 bets and was 1/2 with a loss of 1% of my bank (-$14,59)
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The Total Florida Home Bank - as of June 1, 2011

TheSnapper: $1531,74
Mr.Kelly: $2461,83
The Demon: +$91,35
Total: $4084,93

So, June is here! Thanks to all my followers for all your interest and comments. This blog is now getting interesting as we get into 4+ figures and start pushing on to 5 and 6 figure sums!

I am very happy with the totals so far. 7 more months to go and I'm going to try and double this bank 6 more times before I'm done. A daunting task! Mr. Kelly will now be entering a period of staggering wins and devastating losses...it's going to be hard to stay balanced psychologically. I will have to force myself to treat it like "play" money (after all, only $218 of it is originally "mine")and focus on the percentages, not the dollars. Mr. Kelly will, of course, focus on the guns and the cigarettes...
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May was an extraordinary month for Mr. Kelly. He started the month with $141,69 and ended with $2461,84.

His stats were as follows:
Bets 197
Win 142
Losses 55
Win% 72%
Stake $9535.03
Profit $2320,15
Profit on Stake: 24,3%

Longest losing streak: 5 (-$90,65)
Longest winning streak: 11 (twice) (+$98,38, +$252,09)
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Current Bank: $1531,74 (+ 673,61% profit)
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $2193,92 (+ 10869,60% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00

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Mr. Kelly stormed back with a 25% bank increase and pushed his total to an all-time high of $2193,92.
Combined, we are now over $3700, so I can have a look around Florida and see what is available in the sub-$5,000 market! Probably a rental for a month-long binge party...Mr.Kelly wants an indoor shooting range included...might be a bit tricky.

Here are his bets from yesterday. Mr. Kelly and I alternate markets to keep things even. We use the same strategy, except that his staking is more aggressive (using the full-Kelly stakes, adjusted after each runner, I only use half-Kelly stakes for half of my bank).

Runner    Stake    Odds    Liability    Result
Peace Corps    $133,53    2,7    $227,00    $133,53
First Fast Now    $136,08    2,94    $264,00    $136,08
Roman Strait    $160,80    2,34    $215,47    -$215,47
Bradbury    $132,38    3,1    $278,00    $132,38
Hill Forts Gloria    $144,64    2,62    $234,32    $144,64
Bussell Along    $109,59    2,4    $153,43    $109,59
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I've got to go and check on my reserve bank investments and see how things are going...
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QUICK UPDATE!

I just got off the phone with my crack(-smoking)investment advisor in Amsterdam who assures me that my investments are as safe as always, and that they have grown in value by $91.35.Well done, lads!




Capital invested: $967,04       
Current Value:$1 058,39       
Profit:    $91,35

So, that's $91,35 profit I would have if I sold everything off today. That's also $91,35 more than I would have if I had left it in Betfair, earning that mighty 0% interest they offer at the Royal Bank(rupt) of Scotland.

Current Bank: $1533,36 (+ 674,42% profit)
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $1753,17 (+ 8665,85% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00
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Mr. Kelly cooled off after hitting an all-time high of $2175 on Sunday. He lost 4 straight after that and ended the day 3/7 wins for a loss of -15,8% of his bank.

I had another poor day yesterday, winning only 3/7 for a loss of -5,7% of my bank.


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The chart shows the Mr.Kelly's line seems very ragged (big swings up and down). Actually, it always has been this volatile, but now he has a larger bank you can see this more clearly. He will retreat again for awhile and await the next logarithmic frenzy.

Current Bank: $1616,16 (+ 716,24% profit)
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $2082,22 (+ 10 311,10% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00
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A brutal day yesteday for me, I lost  a horrific 6 straight, which took me down to $1616,16. Snakes and ladders,up and down...Suddenly, I find myself $400 behind Mr.Kelly in the race to Florida!

Mr. Kelly, however, my wild-eyed, heavily-armed Texan friend, has achieved now something quite extraordinary. He started with just $20, and has now compounded it into more than $2,000. This is a 100-fold increase in his bank, representing a 10,000% increase. It is an impressive achievement by any standard, but even more staggering because he did it in just 386 bets, and needed less than 2 months to do it. The Perfect Gambler, my friends...I can see the e-book title already, "How to make 100 times your money in 2 months!"

His stats to date are as follows:
Bets: 386
Wins: 276
Losses: 110
Win%= 71.5%

Units of profit (at levels stakes)= +99.84 units
% profit per unit= 25.8%

Total Stakes: $8,928.18
Profit: $2,056,26
Profit% on Stakes= 23.0%

Total Liability = $15,400.50
Total Profit: $2056,26
Profit% on liability: +13,3%

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Just as Einstien's famous formula e=mc2 shows that the smallest speck of matter has enough energy to power a city. John Kelly showed that the smallest speck of an edge for a gambler can produce profits beyond his wildest dreams....
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Some followers wanted to see a screen shot of this wild day! The wins are Mr.Kelly's, the losses are mine!

Current Bank: $1944,68 (+ 882,68% profit)
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $1354,22 (+ 6671,10% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00

(I withdrew $50 and sent it to the reserve bank for investments. The Dutchmen now have $982,02 under their control in "The Demon". They currently have $15,51 in profits, which is exactly $15,51 more than leaving it in Betfair.)
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Well, another all-time high for me, I went 4/6, but got a bit lucky because a partial match went on to win, so it didn't cost me much, really we could say I was 4/5.

My bank increased 6,1% ($111,08). No complaints from me!

Mr. Kelly had an up-and-down day. He ended up breaking even, going 4/6, but having a staggering -$240 loss on a nag called Father Mutagh. Tough one, but that's the way it goes...




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Some followers have implored me not to discuss my methods until I have the keys to the house in Florida firmly in my hand. They are cooncerned that others copying my method will erode, or destroy, my edge.

Initially, I thought it wouldn't be a problem. The reason is simple. I could write down the entire system, point by point, and publish it in a newspaper, and still people wouldn't be able to profit from it. Why? Because it takes discipline. Day in and day out. Winning streaks and losing streaks. Day after day, week after week, month after month. I am sure that 90% of followers would try it for a few days, maybe lose a few in a row and then drop it and start a different system.

Anyway, be that as it may, I have agreed with the concerns of others and that I will heed the requests to put off discussion of method, selections and the system in general until I have the key to my Florida dream house firmly in my hand. I hope viewers will understand and be patient. Once I am finished, maybe I will write an e-book or just post it all somewhere for everyone who is intersted.

I will still, however,  answer individual messages and I will discuss gambling and staking in general terms. As always, I will try and help anyone out as best I can, but I won't discuss my own selection or system methods any more until I am done.