TheSnapper

Current Bank: $1331,05 (+ 572,25%% profit)
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $1987,54 (+ 9837,70% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00

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Ouch! Both Mr. Kelly and I got slammed yesterday, both by a bit of bad luck and by some good horses. Although Mr. Kelly won 5/8 races, 4 of his wins were only partial matches, so he ended up losing 19,2% of his bank. (The winners couldn't make up for the losers)

I also went down yesterday, down -13,9%. I lost 5/8 races. So, some bad luck all around, but it can't be helped. Mr. Kelly certainly isn't worried. He points out that he has had far worse days before, and he knows that both the odds and time are on his side.

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Adjustments to the Kelly laying stakes

Thanks to a dedicated follower of this blog, tier, who helped to point out a few corrections to the Kelly stakes being used. Basically, my calculations were off for low priced runners and higher priced runners. In effect, I was over-staking the favourites and actually under-staking outsiders. It didn't have much effect on profits yet because I rarely laid heavy favourites...but still, I am paranoid about overstaking, espcecially after the beating we received yesterday!

I recalculated the Kelly stakes for lay bets based on a 5% edge, which is lower than my stats show (9%), because I want to be a bit on the conservative side of the Kelly limit.

I have adjusted the Kelly ranges, so that now they go from 0,5% to 15% for Mr. Kelly and 0,25% to 7,5
% for myself.

Thanks to everyone for your help and contributions. My philosophy is that it is good to be open, flexible and thoughtful. I accept advice and criticism, and I change and adjust as necessary.

My motto is, "Evolution, not revolution"