Start Bank: $198,00
Mr. Kelly's Bank: $$2 138,69 (+ 10593,45% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00
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Yesterday was a solid day for both Mr.Kelly and me. I went 4/5 for +9,3% increase in my bank ($108). Mr. Kelly hit 4/6 for an increase of 7,5% ($151,15).
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So, for June I have adjusted my Kelly stakes. This is a good idea, and I recommend that everyone should always adjust your stakes according to you calculated edge. The idea here is to prevent overstaking, which is toxic to your bankroll and fatal to your betting career. But don't adjust your stake too often or by too much. Evolution, not revolution! The reason you should be careful about this is that you will have ups and downs and you don't want to risk overstaking while you are in a hot period, or understaking while you are in a downswing. So occasionally check your stats and make adjustements.
My calculated layers edge is a solid 9,3%. I have readjusted my stakes to 5% layers edge although this might be a bit too conservative. I might move it up to 7% if it holds for June. I will try to keep my stakes based on my layers edge minus 2%, so I will try to keep it around 7%. The point is that it can never be more than 9% (anything under this is fine).
Mr.Kelly's full-Kelly stake (maximum liability) ranges, based on a 5% edge, are now as follows:
1.01-1.10 0,50%
1.11-1,25 1,25%
1.26-1,50 2,50%
1,51-1,76 3,75%
1,76-2,00 5,00%
2,01-2,20 6,00%
2,21-2,50 7,50%
2,51-2,74 8,75%
2,75-3,00 10,00%
3,01--3,5 12,50%
3,51-4,00 15,00%
Notice that Mr.Kelly is not interested in risking much of his bank laying heavy favourites at 1.10. He is much more eager to lay outsiders. Why? Well, he wants to grow his bank quickly, and when laying 4.00 shots he has a 75% chance of winning. He knows that his bank will grow faster with many small wins than with occasional big upsets.
My half-Kelly stakes are exactly half of these. Adjust, adapt, modify and survive long enough to reproduce in large numbers. As in biology, as in gambling...Mr. Darwin would agree.
