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Tennis Talk 2026: Vol 3 (Australian Open)

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By:
TheCarambaExperience
When: 26 Jan 26 00:42
Holger Rune back in training.
https://x.com/holgerrune2003/status/2015580635444711574
By:
TheCarambaExperience
When: 26 Jan 26 00:51
Sabalenka's odds the same as against Mboko. I thought they would be a few ticks higher after Jovic's demolition job and herself having looked a bit wobbly in two matches now.
By:
Journeyman
When: 26 Jan 26 01:14
Keys breaks, instantly broken back, and that's probably the beginning of the end
By:
TheCarambaExperience
When: 26 Jan 26 01:17
Looking up older players and came across Pam Shriver.

She had a very funky French Open doubles resume from 1978-1992.

Must have hated red clay.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pam_Shriver_career_statistics
By:
mesmerised
When: 26 Jan 26 01:32
good luck JM, tennis accas always look easy but they're hard to land. I had 2/4 from my last go. Keys looking like she's going to bust mine straight away.

Bartunkova was actually the only match I've seen of Mertens


mesmerised24 Jan 26 02:49
gonner have to go out of my way to watch Mertens-Bartunkova later as I've haven't seen the Czech play before yet, need to know if  she's another Czech cab off the rank that will always be present and correct at a slam but doesn't really trouble the top players.


I don't think conditions had much to do with this one it was played under the roof into early evening, Mertens just hit through her and tbf played as well as she's ever played, had more aces than Nikola had winners, but Bartunkova's game style played into Elise's hands for the whole match, all the drop shots and lobs werent working and it ended up tiring her out rather then Mertens. She is very quick with nimble movement though but 'variety' tennis is only workable in today's power game if you're as good as maybe what Aga Rad was, that was the 3rd match in a row in which she was bageled.

Re Mensik, said at Wimbledon last year didn't really think he was good enough to dine at the top table
mesmerised03 Jul 25 20:46
don't know about Mensik being apart of a slam winning group tbh, don't think he's a good enough all round player, his biggest weapon is his serve, and that's heavily reliant on his first serve, don't think he has enough without it, he has this huge speed differential in 1st and 2nd serves compared to the other players in the top 20 or 30. Yet he upped it against Novak in Miami final knowing against the G.O.A.T returner that wouldn't be good enough, so at least there's potential for adaption, but seems an Average returner himself, for a big guy his forehand shots are not big enough, I'd even say weak, incidentally always thought there was an optimal height range for slam winning players on the men's tour, 6ft-6ft3, you're tall enough to have a decent serve, short enough to be a good mover on court, barely anyone outside of that range has won a slam the last 20 odd years, Delpo one of them but his money shot forehand was HUGE. It also feels like the longer a rally goes on, the less chance Mensik has of winning it. Kind Regards.
By:
mesmerised
When: 26 Jan 26 01:36
Keys putting up a pretty feeble defence of her title here, gonner lose 1700+pts and crash outside the top 10.
By:
TheCarambaExperience
When: 26 Jan 26 01:43
back to a more accurate ranking now. Still amazing that all the stars aligned for her last year and that she won that Slam that most of us thought was never gonna happen for her.
By:
mesmerised
When: 26 Jan 26 01:48
Most didn't include me as she was one of my 3 Future slam winner picks back in 2014 or 15Cool

Let's just pretend I didn't pick Mlandenovic thoughPlain, even though she reached the dizzy heights of 10th in rankings and seemed to stay there forever despite losing Round 1 in every tournament for weeks on end.
By:
TheCarambaExperience
When: 26 Jan 26 01:51
She should have won that French Open in 2017 when the crowds were so behind her and the WTA was in a pretty muggy state with Serena, Masha and Vika out and pre Barty, Naomi, Iga, Sabalenka.
By:
TheCarambaExperience
When: 26 Jan 26 01:54
lost to Timea Bacsinszky of all people in the QF. Osty in the semis with that crowd could have been fun. Then Simona in the final would probably have been too much, but every chance of nerves and the crowds getting to her as well. Did all the hard work before the tournament too, telling the French tennis federation not to give Sharapova a wild card.
By:
mesmerised
When: 26 Jan 26 01:58
literally only just seen she lost in Round 1 qualies here in Australia, honestly thought she'd retiredLaugh
By:
mesmerised
When: 26 Jan 26 02:03
Well, there goes my mug acca and Key's title defence with it, I don't think Pegula will win the tournament though, don't think she has the minerals.
By:
mesmerised
When: 26 Jan 26 02:07
next up Wimbledon double bagelled finalists, Amanda.

liquidity in some of these match markets is so bad compared to yesteryear. I used to like the set betting market, they might as well discontinue them now, only ever chump change available.
By:
Journeyman
When: 26 Jan 26 03:05
I made a post about the Amanda match but it has got lost in space so I presume it will appear on the predictions thread at some point tomorrow. I was just really saying how odd it is Amanda is flying under the radar again despite going for her third slam final in a row
By:
TheCarambaExperience
When: 26 Jan 26 03:09
There's not much talk about her, but market respects here. On par with Iga and Rybakina, and favored over Gauff.
By:
TheCarambaExperience
When: 26 Jan 26 03:10
*her
By:
mesmerised
When: 26 Jan 26 03:19
It's a mistake btw for the Australian Open to put Inglis - Iga on last, not that it will make much difference to the result, but putting her on peak time in Australia with all day long to think about that, and the match, wont help pre-match nerves or confidence. Reminds me of the brainwave the LTA had putting on Emma at Wimbledon just before she won the US Open, at that point she was an unknown quietly going about her business under the radar, then they have the bright idea to shove her on the show court against Tomljanovic at peak time and she cramped up with nerves and retired in the second set. Hopefully Maddison at least doesn't appear like a rabbit caught in the headlights, though she's 28 so probably not.
By:
Journeyman
When: 26 Jan 26 03:23
Reminds me of the brainwave the LTA had putting on Emma at Wimbledon just before she won the US Open, at that point she was an unknown quietly going about her business under the radar, then they have the bright idea to shove her on the show court against Tomljanovic at peak time and she cramped up with nerves and retired in the second set

They were lucky she spared their blushes and won something quite good a few weeks later. The narrative now is that the US Open made her a star but there was so much interest in her right from the start.
By:
TheCarambaExperience
When: 26 Jan 26 03:24
Iga prefers the sunny day conditions, so if I was Maddison I'd be happy with this being on at night. It's unlikely to make a difference though.
By:
mesmerised
When: 26 Jan 26 03:26

Jan 26, 2026 -- 3:05AM, Journeyman wrote:


I made a post about the Amanda match but it has got lost in space so I presume it will appear on the predictions thread at some point tomorrow. I was just really saying how odd it is Amanda is flying under the radar again despite going for her third slam final in a row


reminds me of a quiz question I posed at the US Open 2024


mesmerised31 Aug 24 17:45Joined: 10 Nov 10 | Topic/replies: 38,132 | Blogger: mesmerised's blog
Quiz question

if Paolini reached and lost the US Open final, it'd be her third straight slam final loss
Who was the last player in women's tennis to lose 3 or more straight slam finals in a row, bonus point for naming the only other 3 players in the open era who've also lost 3 or more straight slam finals.
Extra bonus point for the only man in the open era to lose 3 straight slam finals.

By:
Journeyman
When: 26 Jan 26 03:27
Sabitini?
By:
mesmerised
When: 26 Jan 26 03:29
Venus was the last at that point, guessed by edy at the time
Wisewords got the rest, Evert/Sanchez Vicario, Goolagong. Nadal for the mens.
By:
mesmerised
When: 26 Jan 26 03:29
Wang holding her own here
By:
mesmerised
When: 26 Jan 26 03:30
my post just disappeared as well

test "Wang holding her own here"
By:
TheCarambaExperience
When: 26 Jan 26 03:31
phorum not only deleting members but also posts Sad
By:
mesmerised
When: 26 Jan 26 03:31
think somethings' up with the thread, my posts not all showing now either.
By:
Journeyman
When: 26 Jan 26 03:36
I hope my post about Svitolina being the best player never to reach a slam final disppears before Dani sees it
By:
TheCarambaExperience
When: 26 Jan 26 03:38
Daniela has won two Slams.
By:
Journeyman
When: 26 Jan 26 03:39
Happy
By:
Journeyman
When: 26 Jan 26 03:41
Amanda has said she doesn't fancy a three setter at any point over the fortnight so I'm expecting a big effort to break right here
By:
Journeyman
When: 26 Jan 26 03:44
Got to deuce but Wang clearly means business
By:
TheCarambaExperience
When: 26 Jan 26 03:45
If Fritz crashes out here at least he'll get ten days of rest for his tendonitis before playing his next mug event in the US.
By:
TheCarambaExperience
When: 26 Jan 26 04:22
https://x.com/jessica4stein/status/2015629223147516406

classic Osty! stay for the entire clip.
By:
TheCarambaExperience
When: 26 Jan 26 04:24
Tennisform
@Tennisform
Kyrgios on his current motivation: "My only motivation now is to earn as much as possible. Until tournaments offer me 6-figure sums, there's no point in going to play a 250..."


so only exhibitions for Nick going forward then :)
By:
TheCarambaExperience
When: 26 Jan 26 04:27
https://x.com/WTA/status/2015617450415620575

woah, I wish I knew. No way Jessica Pegula was gonna lose and wear a Chiefs jersey after all the beatings they have handed out to her beloved Bills.
By:
TheCarambaExperience
When: 26 Jan 26 09:19
Darderi had Sinner on the rope a bit (2-0 up in the 3rd TB), then went into clown mode over a crying baby. 2-2 now.
By:
TheCarambaExperience
When: 26 Jan 26 09:21
He was out hitting Sinner. At 2-0 a baby crying in the stand interrupted his service twice. He then decided to be funny and looked up a third time, hoping for laughs from the crowd. Sinner wasn't engaging in this comedy at all and has won the following 5 points.
By:
TheCarambaExperience
When: 26 Jan 26 09:24
1.06 two sets up (prematch was 1.03) to 1.01 in 5 mins. Sinner won all seven points after the baby drama. It was mostly Sinner going in beast mode, but some of that was helped by Darderi clowning imo. Great 3rd set from Darderi though.
By:
TheCarambaExperience
When: 26 Jan 26 09:29
Sinner's got to be the least charismatic top player since Björn Borg. At least Björn had nice hair.
By:
TheCarambaExperience
When: 26 Jan 26 09:32
Dokic looks better this year. Hope she doesn't have the fluctuations in weight that Marion had for a while as that wasn't healthy at all.
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