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30 May 19 19:14
Date Joined: 29 Jun 09
| Topic/replies: 302 | Blogger: newmugpunter's blog
would like to ask for genuine advice on a bet , I have an acca that will pay £4k if Madison Keys win the final set tomorrow
She started at 1/10 and looked like winnings in straight sets. I have been offered £2700 !!!

Who thinks I should cash out , seems stingy to me  she is 3/10 to win now
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Report GRANTCKING May 30, 2019 9:35 PM BST
depends how much the money means to you
Report GRANTCKING May 30, 2019 9:36 PM BST
a fresh madison keys tho should win the final set
Report GRANTCKING May 30, 2019 9:42 PM BST
if ur asking purely from a mathematical standpoint then yeh its not good value to cashout
Report GRANTCKING May 30, 2019 9:45 PM BST
what was your initial stake for the acca?
Report newmugpunter May 30, 2019 10:07 PM BST
£500 stake , 3 horses, 10 tennis, would hate to come away with nothing , but annoying to lose £1300 for a 1-10 shot, but she should win,
Report wisewords May 31, 2019 12:34 AM BST
right. firstly, I think Keys will win the 3rd tomorrow pretty comfortably.

However, this isn't guaranteed. So let's do a little stake preservation plus a little bit on top. Keys is currently 1.31 to lay on the exchange. Lay Keys for £1,000, £310 liability.

If Keys wins tomorrow, you win your 4k acca minus £310 = £3,690

If Keys loses tomorrow, you win your lay so will have 1k minus commission profit from that. That covers your initial £500 stake and on top of that it's still about £450 profit.

good luck whatever you decide to do.
Report wisewords May 31, 2019 12:37 AM BST
Another option of course is to lay Keys for 3k at 1.31, £930 liability. If Keys wins, you return 4k mins £930 = £3,070. If Keys loses, your lay wins and returns 3k minus comms so around £2,850
Report GRANTCKING May 31, 2019 11:56 AM BST
just saw keys won, nice
Report wisewords May 31, 2019 4:26 PM BST
hope things worked out well for you here. Keys won as expected
Report newmugpunter June 2, 2019 3:34 PM BST
I'm old fashioned , a bet is a bet and havent really used CASH OUT, so happy days got the full £4k, but thanks for advice and well wishes
Report wisewords June 2, 2019 4:02 PM BST
well yes, I would have just let a bet like that run. but you were asking for advice!! glad it all turned out well
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