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Tennis Talk 2018: vol 3 (Australian Open)
Tennis Talk 2018: vol 3 (Australian Open)
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I don't know how odds compilers really come to certain things.
Like CSN is best priced 50/1, why would you have her shorter than Garcia exactly. Like certain players I can see it's on name (Vika a super horrible price for one), and a lot of these already inflated from regular eg. Konta 50/1, Keys 50/1, but some are just plain weird. |
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When is Kuzzy back - she has bucket loads of talent still albeit no brain
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Odds are not worth analysing till the draw is made. Unless you see someone ridiculously overprice who you know will come in big.
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Kerber's movement ends up inhibited on clay which is bad for her and her shots don't benefit from the surface. Not enough pace to blast through the surface, no spin to be a forceful shot pinning someone back.
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Don't know when Kuznetsova is exactly back but it should defo be before clay season.
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Garcia is an example of that though Mes, she'd have to regress pretty bad to go off at 70/1.
Especially as a lot of the top players probs under priced, though it's hard to know how market will react to certain things. Eg. I couldn't have Serena as favourite tbh, not before we've seen much of anything, just too much of a gamble on her worst surface. But then the market will collapse on her if she looks good at IW/Miami. Pliskova/Vika/Kvitova prices are plain awful. Kerber's price doesn't feel amazing, but the thing is I expect her to do well coming up, therefore it can easily end up getting backed in even if I don't think it's particularly relevant. |
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oh right , hopefully she plays the whole clay court season
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There's more bad prices than good ones at this stage, normally always the case as bookies play it safe obviously.
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Kuznetsova was on the Indian Wells entry list released this week, doesn't mean she will defo be back of course (I don't really know), but I assume it's possible.
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Clay is her least successful surface esp in terms of slams but she's hardly been terrible on it, she's won something like 65 of her last 70 matches on clay, that is unrivalled.
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I stand correct, won her last 76 of 81 matches on clay
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Sharapova another key one at the top of the market. Unless she shows something the price is awful, but doesn't mean market will necessarily agree. It made her about 5th fav for the AO which I didn't agree with remotely off the back of very, very little (so basically name). Given Sharapova is perceived to be even better on clay these days, she probably won't have to show much for the market to go in on her.
Really though with Sharapova you should be looking for how she does against good players, you aren't going to win a slam playing no-one good. But tbh the AO market must have been watching something different to me full stop, Sharapova had looked bang average in build up yet the market was still pricing her up as one of the prime favs. To me she's currently playing like someone ranked around 15-20 range. |
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The French Open she won against Safarova in 15 was a joke, she was unwell, stuttering and flailing all over the place in every match, even crying during one them because she was so ill, almost every match was 3 sets when she normally drops 2 or 3 in a tournament at most
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Serena is incredible on all surfaces when she gets going, but she's had to work to get that good on clay the most. On top of this a big part of that number is the rest of the field getting much weaker on clay over that time frame of those 70 matches. On hard courts everyone can play well pretty much, at least at the top of the game, so Serena on an off day much more vulnerable on a hard court as the opposition is better.
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If you look at eg. how Muguruza beat her in FO 2016. Muguruza was just outplaying Serena in that, Muguruza being one of the few players at the time who was good on clay. There's been a real lack of good clay courters in recent times, with a lot of the top players being clay mugs.
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The better clay players today are not dramatically better or worse than they were 4/5 years ago, obv what counts against Serena now is age and post pregnancy doubts. She was at about 70% the whole tournament in 2015 at most and somehow still won.
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Well yer, but it's a pure gamble to just expect Serena to come back and dominate, she's got to come back and be the best player immediately to justify her current price, which is far from guaranteed.
It was same with this AO, Serena's price was a joke as I'd been saying for months in off season, it was priced up like Serena was just going to come back and be the best player in the field. |
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It actually inflated everyone elses price her in AO was my point, that Serena was somehow her usual price to win AO of recent times despite no match play in a year and giving birth 4 months ago, the idea that she would be at full strength was absolute madness.
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https://twitter.com/Mike_Dickson_DM/status/957216577950232577
British press  |
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Still laugh at Muguruza doing that Post World Number 1 ranking video in her silk gown, gushing at she always dreamed and worked towards it, thanking her fan, team and family for all their help and support.
Lasted a month. |
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Was it by WTA? WTA went so overboard with their #1 hype stuff last year it was laughable, in sense of you could see it was going to be a merry go round from how close it was yet they acted like it was a new era, which comes a tough sell when you were selling someone else as a new era 6 weeks ago.
Media is most desperate for Muguruza to be #1 too though in her case. |
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think it was her own posted to twitter or wherever straight after
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About the long speaches at the Aussie Open prize ceremony, I had either forgotten about this from 2012 or not noticed it in the first place. But funny stuff:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HhCzXwdUs_U |
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I love the part where they finally bring in some chairs for Rafa and Novak, and the crowd applauds, but the guy who is talking thinks the applause are for him and says thank you.
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classic break in 1st game
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that somes up maid marion cilic ... right there
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so there we have it...well done Fed, game over boring. Time to go outside and hit the real courts
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what's Marion gonna cry about terday .... that rash around his anus or on his balls ...
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Federer is dialed into this match early.
still waiting for the Cilic Bang... |
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tof has taken his stupid pills this morning I see.
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mugmerised has same said rashes ...
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i'd be surprised if Feds levels dont start to drop at some point, even if he goes 2-up
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he hasn't been given 1 proper test all tournament, straight sets wins against followed by an early retirement fro Chung, without the top 3 players it's too easy for him, another easy slam.
Points are not long enough in the game Cilic plays to really test Federer physically even if he does go behind. Only chance for him is to win the next 3 on tie breaks. |
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straight sets wins against nobodies*
and that includes Berdych and Gasquet are no where near the top 4 |
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morning degens!
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wow big marian believes
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