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ATP Monte Carlo 16/04
ATP Monte Carlo 16/04
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Replies: 1,060
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fcp10, your calculation is wrong as well though
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I think Janowicz will win if it goes to a 3rd set. Anderson played a lot of tennis at the back end of last week.
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why is that?
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How desperate is the market to make Janowicz fav? He was outsider pre-match and is nearly fav up 3-1 in the tiebreak.
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fcp, the calculation is more complex than you posted
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Jerzy is future No.1
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Janovic is king of tb
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only one of 2 things can happen W or L the point. chance of winnig the point W = 0,5. 4 in a 4 row is exactly as stated.
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chance of winnig the point W = 0,5
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;[p with the jinx.
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FfsChoke
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As soon as Melzer went 2-0 up in the 2nd it was free money... Anyone else back him ?
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Mugowicz double fault on set point.
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DF on set point
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if the server has probability (for example) 60% to win a point, and the receiver 40%, from 0-0 the server wins the game with 73.57% prob, and from 30-30 with 69.23%
the 30-30 gives a slight advantage to the reciever, as many people correctly posted here earlier |
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FCK what a mugger
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Manchester United can either beat QPR or not beat them
50% chance of either happening I guess  |
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maybe Janowicz fixing
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What a mug Janowicz.
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what do they drink there during changeover ffs?
martini? |
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They are just strange branded water bottles. They have a new sponsor for them in Monte Carlo this year.
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if receiver has to win 2 points against serve as opposed to 4 then of course he is more likely than at 0-0
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Klizan v Monaco, what do you think?
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care to say how do you compute that? are you considering all the scenarios of getting there?
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@mousetrap.
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reverse is prob true for some wta players
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what you are still ignoring in your probability suggestions is that the odds already include the probability of each player winning the point, and so at 0-0 they should be the same as at 30-30.
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guess who's back? back again? clown's back. till next choke
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That probability is there, in the odds at 0-0.
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Vs some opponents yes the opposite is probably true in some WTA matches. For example someone like Azarenka is winning over 50% of return points.
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sure
here are the probabilities to win from 0-0: 0.1296 to love 0.20736 to 15 0.20736 to 30 0.191409231 to 40 0.735729231 total 73.57% to win from 30-30, one of these players has to win two points in a row (same from deuce) server 0.6*0.6=0.36 receiver 0.4*0.4 =0.16 server is 2.25 more likely to win than receiver, thus 69.23 : 30.77 |
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few more martinis for monfils please
he deserved this |
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take it kevin
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The best way to put it in non-mathematical terms is when you have a shorter format, the less likely outcome becomes more likely. So at 0-0 you have a longer format than you do from 30-30.
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they dont have to win two points in a row, though.
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