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...but is he a 1.50 chance ?
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No 8/11 seems about right .
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no should be 1.36
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You can get 4.1 for a straight sets Murray victory - that's fantastic value
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you cant eat value when its got 2 hands round its throat
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5-5 head to head, Ferrer 4-0 on clay and 1-0 in round robin match at ATP Finals.
Murray 5-0 in knockout matches not played on clay. |
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rommel as cryptic as ever
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should be 2.5
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is he a 1.50 chance ?
He'd win this match twice if it was played thrice, so yeah I think so. I'd have him a bit shorter, but he's sometimes a bit sluggish out of the blocks. Then again, so was Ferru against Roddick, so... |
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1.5 is huge
biggest price of the year for me |
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Monaco Chardy Monaco was 1.65.... just one of better bets than thise one during the current year.......
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he was trading 1.4+ at a point in the 4th set. It wasn't that good.
Ferrer isn't a new player all of a sudden. Hear the same old sh1t time and time again, 'ferrer is so under-rated'. People keep saying it and then all of a sudden he becomes massively overrated. Reminds me of a footballer such as Parker. Murray is levels above him. As long as he doesn't behave like a junior and gets his aggression level right, it'll be a comfortable 4 sets at worst. |
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Jsimpson not at all.... Monaco won easily with Chardy... my top up bet was at 2.22 and din't get matched....Monaco never went over Starting point probably...
Ferrer is neither underrated neither overrated.... a player can be over/under rated if he plays a great or a bad tournament... not if he plays a big or lower level career during 10 years.... Ferrer can truoble Murray.... I doubt Andy will win easily today... I do doubt it.... I'm not saying David will surely win... but Murray is surely not a great bet at 1.5.... and to conclude I have to add that Murray is not in the same class as Fed, Rafa and Nole... he is between those 3 level and the Ferrer level.... Tsonga, Berdych and Del Potro are just under Ferrer imo.... another plus is that in 9 years following tennis I saw only one gave up from Ferrer, recently ( can't remember when ), and this can drive Murray crazy.... we'll see.... Good Luck all |
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Didn't you also say monaco was great value at 1.48 vs troicki? He won against Chardy but I wouldn't get carried away, he wasn't 3.3 or anything.
You leave unmatched bets up randomly? So what happens if you're playing is trading 2.12 bp down and it's a huge bp. You're bet is unmatched. Your player loses that bp and all of a sudden he is 2.72. You're bet's been swallowed by a courtsider at 2.22 . Murray is slightly behind those 3, more on mentality than ability. And he is above Ferrer as you say. In terms of shot for shot on a grass court quite a distance above and as long as he gets his mentality right (which you'd hope and assume he'd do in a wimbledon qf) he has more than enough to take care of Ferrer. In that French Open qf you could see he dominated the matchup but he played like an idiot there. |
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Tsonga is a much better grass court player than Ferrer and is indeed a real danger to all at Wimbledon.
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murray needs to avoid hitting his backhand cross court all the time to the ferrer backhand, as he did at the french to his peril. del potro was also guilty of that yesterday. ferrer has had eight losses all year, six of which came against the "big three". perhaps not a "new player", but certainly an improved one, particularly on grass. murray himself has pointed out the improvement in ferrer's movement in his presser yesterday
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Tsonga is much better grasscourter than Ferrer? Last year surely, this year maybe Better is probably better than much better....
Tsonga is dangerous to anyone on grass and here at wimbers? Surely, and Ferrer is too imo.... |
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A lot of people championing Ferrer to win this, but he is really up against it playing Murray on grass. I cant see Ferrer making any real impact on Murray's game on this surface. Straight sets Murray victory for me.
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Murray wins but straight sets is pushing it.
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@jsimpson: I don't leave anycent anywhere random... never... everybet of mine is studied and every "keep-in-play" bet is there cause of a reason of maths and probability and ROI increasing....
Not to be unkind with them or anyone but I honestly don't care about what courtsiders do.. I have more important things to be done in my life than travelling around the world or spending whole days watching tennis.... Murray will have trouble playing Ferrer cause he can't play short anytime... Ferrer is fast and can push both forehand and backhand with almost no difference... that's why I see a close match.... Yes Jsimpson I was on Monaco over Troicki too, have you ever failed a bet? I did, sorry....  |
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i think 1.5 is just about right
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@jsimpson: to be fair no I didn't talk about great value talking about Monaco cause I never talk about value; I talk about winners and ROI, I asked the bank but I'm not allowed to pay the bills with value...
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i give up
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I never talk about value; I talk about winners and ROI, I asked the bank but I'm not allowed to pay the bills with value...
That's why you'll lose. |
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If you're basing your betting solely on picking winners with no regard to price, I'd get me on speed dial.
Good luck. |
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paddy's facebook offer of 2/1 Murray only £10 each though
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ferrer in 4 sets..he's a class above the declining brit
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When it's gone it's gone and it's gone
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Gone 3-0 to Murray
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rickysomas1 04 Jul 12 14:47
@jsimpson: to be fair no I didn't talk about great value talking about Monaco cause I never talk about value rickysomas1 04 Jul 12 14:27 Ferrer can truoble Murray.... I doubt Andy will win easily today... I do doubt it.... I'm not saying David will surely win... but Murray is surely not a great bet at 1.5.... There you go then, you obviously do think about value, you just don't realise it. |
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obviously Biscuit I think about prices too... but there are matches that I just void... without even watching odds....
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@Biscuit: can you give the definition of "value" please?
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Guys the moment has come. Players are almost ready to stage war.
Place your last bets and good luck to all of you  |
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here we go..
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Ricky, I have no doubt that you're telling the truth about your figures etc, but if you're backing with value as your secondary consideration, you'll lose. Unless you're subconsciously taking it. This isn't me being a díck for the sake of it, it's fact.
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Rob I don't know... I honestly never understood perfectly what value is... is it like: "I think this fact is more likely to happen than its price suggests?" This concept if wrong at the early base of it cause anyone that thinks he can price something better the whole rest of the betitng world is just crazy.... if Value is something else maybe yes, I take value into account...
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