Tennis
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26 May 12
23:19
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12 Jan 09
Wouldn't be a slam if I couldn't get in amongst the outright action:
Novak Djokovic @ 4.4
Understand why Nadal is favourite, but 1.7 ? If he wins every match pretty comfotably leading up to the final and has to play Djokovic, he wouldn't be far off that price in the final. Djokovic has the right draw to make the final without expanding too much, Tsonga is the best QF seed he could have got. Federer in the semis obviously brings back memories of last year but that was a bit of a freak performance from Federer against a Djokovic running a little on empty, this is where Djokovic's slightly less impressive 2012 may actually help him going into RG. He's never made the final here but doesn't mean he never will, although the pressure on him this fortnight could be a tricky burden to carry. But if we're looking for players that can stop Nadal on clay at the moment, there really is only one man and that's Djokovic.
John Isner @ 390
Immediate instinct in this draw was to look for the weakest quarter, which of course is Murray's. Players in this quarter that you'd imagine will be contenders to make semis include Murray, Ferrer, Dolgopolov, Gasquet and my pick Isner. His European clay form hasn't been too impressive, but i'm not going to read too much into that. One thing i've learnt about Isner over the last year or two is that he's become one of the genuine big-game players on the tour that's not afraid to step up against the big boys. He's beaten Djokovic and Federer, the latter on clay, and took Nadal to 5 last year. Ironically it's Murray that he's generally struggled against most of the top-4 and he's in his section, but too many doubts about Murray at the moment, I think in such a big summer this tournament comes quite low on his priority-list. Ferrer as usual has been a good BO3 claycourter this Spring, but as usual he'll flatter to deceive in the big one. Was tempted by Dolgopolov but don't quite trust his consistency at the moment to come through that tough section. Goes without saying that if Isner's making the semis then i'd green out against Nadal, but I think this price is big enough to have a play with.
Had a brief look through some of the 1000 shots but really nothing stands out, though i'm sure one or two will make R4 at least.
If anyone has any good WTA picks they'd be appreciated ? GL.
Novak Djokovic @ 4.4
Understand why Nadal is favourite, but 1.7 ? If he wins every match pretty comfotably leading up to the final and has to play Djokovic, he wouldn't be far off that price in the final. Djokovic has the right draw to make the final without expanding too much, Tsonga is the best QF seed he could have got. Federer in the semis obviously brings back memories of last year but that was a bit of a freak performance from Federer against a Djokovic running a little on empty, this is where Djokovic's slightly less impressive 2012 may actually help him going into RG. He's never made the final here but doesn't mean he never will, although the pressure on him this fortnight could be a tricky burden to carry. But if we're looking for players that can stop Nadal on clay at the moment, there really is only one man and that's Djokovic.
John Isner @ 390
Immediate instinct in this draw was to look for the weakest quarter, which of course is Murray's. Players in this quarter that you'd imagine will be contenders to make semis include Murray, Ferrer, Dolgopolov, Gasquet and my pick Isner. His European clay form hasn't been too impressive, but i'm not going to read too much into that. One thing i've learnt about Isner over the last year or two is that he's become one of the genuine big-game players on the tour that's not afraid to step up against the big boys. He's beaten Djokovic and Federer, the latter on clay, and took Nadal to 5 last year. Ironically it's Murray that he's generally struggled against most of the top-4 and he's in his section, but too many doubts about Murray at the moment, I think in such a big summer this tournament comes quite low on his priority-list. Ferrer as usual has been a good BO3 claycourter this Spring, but as usual he'll flatter to deceive in the big one. Was tempted by Dolgopolov but don't quite trust his consistency at the moment to come through that tough section. Goes without saying that if Isner's making the semis then i'd green out against Nadal, but I think this price is big enough to have a play with.
Had a brief look through some of the 1000 shots but really nothing stands out, though i'm sure one or two will make R4 at least.
If anyone has any good WTA picks they'd be appreciated ? GL.
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Think Nadal could be anywhere between 1.35 and 1.65 in a final vs Djoko. Suppose bang in the middle at 1.5 is the most likely SP.
Isner has been beyond awful in his last 2 tournaments with his losses to Seppi and Davydenko. Looks like he's regressed, but that of course would be a naive thought. Still, his execution and tactics have been shocking but as you say he's a big time player so you never know. GL anyway. It's an awful draw if you ask me, am just on magro at 320av. Absolutely superb vs Simon and Baker in Nice and should really make quarters where he'd obviously face Nadal. Ferrer at 70s would appeal, but not 50s. And personally writing off Del Potro, Berdych and Murray for various reasons. Djok vs Fed Ferrer vs Nadal  |
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I watched Almagro today and was impressed, but questions have to be asked as to why he doesn't bring it in Paris ? Last year was the same, and a baffling loss to Kubot followed.
Last few years i've tended to look to Dusseldorf for good form players; Troicki last year, Soderling a coupla years ago, Berdych ... one I liked this week was Tipsarevic, he's hitting the ball as well as i've ever seen him, but landed in the wrong quarter, can't touch Nadal. |
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I'm not so sure about Tips on clay as don't think he moves too well on it really. But Paris will suit him more than Rome of Dusseldorf did. Wawrinka showed up his limitations on the surface, Kohlschreiber should have done but is and played like a tit, and Berdych can't as he hasn't got the variation.
Not sure on Almagro, places too much emphasis on 250 events that's for sure. He's taking his aggression to a new level on this surface, and on his day can trouble anyone I think. Will probably let down though. |
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Where do you think Murray's tournament ends ?
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Anywhere between 4th round - sf. Not exactly a bold prediction but I suppose depends how the draw pans out. God knows how bad his back actually is but assuming it's reasonable he surely can't lose to Nieminen/Andreev or Tomic in the 3rd round.
Gasquet of course could beat him in 4th round, Dolgopolov not so sure. Ferrer would do in quarters I'd think, Isner perhaps. All a guessing game really. It wouldn't surprise me to see him make semis and unless something happened to Nadal I don't see how you make a case for him there. Could be trading at 28s in semis. |
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pretty much at start.
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Do you not fancy the 6/4 ferrer simpson?
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Nah price doesn't interest me there but worthy solid fave for that quarter.
Tsonga at 25s earlier was better value for 1st quarter if you ask me. Pretty much in the 4th round, Wawrinka/Simon followed by Djok 25/1? Prob not quite that big. Anyway, best price is 18s now which is more realistic. |
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I slightly favour Gasquet over Dolgopolov in that section, and maybe against Murray too. Think he's old enough and low enough these days to not have the old expectations of the home crowd which really has affected him here before. Ran into Djokovic in R4 last year of course.
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ferrer has a good record against players in this section and even against murray he should have an edge over him taking form of both into account and the surface.
but also think isner can push there,he is on and off recently but in best of 5 format he is tough to beat as he can suddenly switch on and play hard to opponent game turning match around also his serve will always keep him in the play but he would need to beat ferrer who has good record against him also, i think it can be between those two at the one end,and murray probably against gasquet on other hand, if he came through he would have ferrer i would say .he clearly struggles physically so after couple of 3 setters and tough match against gasko ferrer may grind him out so isner or ferrer for me but probably ferrer |
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^ +1
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as for WTA I've layed Pav, Lisicki, CSN and Wickmayer before the draw, some prices have almost doubled since then, so I've backed back partially but will lay again if they make rds 2,3,or 4
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Isner playing way below his best lately...no chance.
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Oh OK, that convinces me once and for all that Isner won't be winning the title. What was I thinking !!!
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I think you are the only one who took that as isner has no chance of winning the title when it is obvious the discussion was all about the chances of winning this 1/4...i will say it again just for the spaz...NO CHANCE
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Hi there!! Isner can only win an atp250 (In huston he missed the final against monaco),Nadal in 2012 is in a very good shape , as everybody says only djokovic might stop him... The only player out of those two players with little chances to win with a very juicy quote is federer , but i wont back on him either...
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Very mature as ever harry, bless you !
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I have invested heavily in Nadal a few weeks back at 1.85/6 and expect him to win but I do feel that Novak's price is far too high considering it's a two horse race (More or less)! He will defo come in from that in the next couple of rounds when people realise his inflated price!
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Think he briefly touched favouritism somewhere in the first week last year when Nadal was struggling against the likes of Isner and Andujar. Not convinced his level has diminished that much of Nadal's improved that much to warrant these prices right now.
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Completely agree Novak is defo the value with the way the market currently lies!
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Isner looked more focused and confident/aggressive from baseline today. Guy couldn't handle his serve at all though. Your 390 looks alright really, PHM next so that should be easy, Granollers in 3rd round will be tricky but should win. All in all should be fresh going into the 2nd week.
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isners "form' in last month is misleading, he took all of those tournaments as a practise routine and even more, he was focusing on his preparations off match practise as i heard on tweeter garbage long time ago.after match with federer and fact he got so close to the finnals event in december london he pushes for reall glory and also taking into account his performances on clay last yr and first round failure in rg its already puts him on good position to score some extra points if he carry on at least to next round but more likely to at least 4th round
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Fully agree that Djokovic is the "value" on the outright market if you are looking for one. Price a tad high purely due to the fact that he's gonna face fed in the semis, someone who beat him here at this stage last year. This time round, I fully expect djoko to progress to the finals. That said, its really hard to see him winning this at the first time of asking. Fed can give him some advice and opinions regarding this. This is assuming he meets nadal in the finals
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What does Serena's loss do to the women's market, who's very backable now ?
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looks like azarenka price didnt changed,all rest fav like lina masha of course ,stosur dropped but azarenka is still same,i know she has shaky start and looks like lost her confidence a bit but still she should be the fav to win this imao
she has an edge over li, over stosur and over masha,sharapova beat her last time but dont think it would be as easy in slam final but yes she may not get to the final as she looks vulnereable a bit but everyone started to underestimating her too much |
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kvitova dropped as well,she is about 15 she looked good today,people forgot about her
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Djokovic price goes up?????????? Now 4.6?
Anyone got it? I didn't. Is that mean that he is not on drugs? Jelena is leaving him with his best friend?????? There must be something, FFS?!!?...somethin that entire market knows and I don't! |
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Federer potential s/f cannot be the reason. Because Djokovic is the favourite there. Nadal yes, but still 4.6???is "c'mon get real" price. Somebody has to take 3 sets from him...He IS the world #1.
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The price is crazy and anyone who managed to get on at 4.7 is in a fantastic trading position. Sadly I lumped on at 3.40 ages ago, so I've got a long wait now till I can get any green.
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;[p
30 May 12 00:30 Joined: 03 Nov 07 | Topic/replies: 13,958 | Blogger: ;[p's blog kvitova dropped as well,she is about 15 she looked good today,people forgot about her 5s a few weeks ago wasnt she  |
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well well well
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kvitova doesn't win a slam on clay, she'll fall tamely to first big player she faces.
Only player left in who can stop Sharapova in current form on dirt is Stosur and she's playing into some fine form. her particular serve is a substantial weapon on clay because of the way it naturally forces the opposition to play the serve game completely dominated from the start of each point Maria owns her completely at any other time but she's the only one that can best the Russian in current form |
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Sharapova its not that strong . There is number of players who can beat her she isnt adaptable and does not have plan b but of course she can win it.bur for me isnt overwhelming fav here.
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Li Na could beat her without doubt..li na looks the only player who can stop her from making the final.
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li is looking well good. altho aint really played anyone yet
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Nobody played anyone yet. You can't win a GS in the early rounds but you can lose it
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Those courts are perfect for li encounter wiht sharapova its 50-50 affair.shevis reigning champ and will have great support. If only can keep her head straight she will trouble masha for sure
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Sharapova is in the form of her life the last 10 days
i'll give you Li being in form at the right time but this is a different maria than last year |
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Lol last 10 days she barely played.have you included rome final in this 10 days?
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