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Stoozbet's Trading Blog

Building A Defensive Trade

09 Aug 13 08:15
In the 20.20 at Newmarket one horse that regularly features on this blog, Elusive Flame runs, now whilst she does love to blaze a trail up front and is still a valid trading proposition however her key weakness is seeing out her races & the in running players are becoming wise to her running style.

The one I’m interested in today is the Micky Hammond trained Dark Castle. Last time out he finished 4th in a really hot Saturday handicap at York & traded at even money in running. He runs today from a 1 lb lower mark in a race of a lower grade so given we know he’s in fine fettle I’m expecting another big run.

He is likely to be covered up through the early part of the race before being delivered with his challenge around the 1f pole at which point he should at the very least trade shorter in running.

Dark Castle can be backed now for 2 points at 8.0 at the books (victor). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 5.9, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 5.1 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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