In the 15.10 at Ascot I think the value lies with the Mark Johnston runner Broxbourne. She fits the mold of a tough Johnston filly and she’s highly unexposed over the longer distances of 2m+. This is crucial because in my opinion from watching her races she seems to improve more the further she goes. Today is just her 3rd try at 2m+ & last time out she finished 2nd to another long distance horse that I’ve been following this season, Lieutenant Miller. After beating Broxbourne into 2nd place Lieutenant Miller went on to finish 3rd at Royal Ascot in the Ascot Stakes thus giving Broxbourne’s form a nice boost.
The Johnston yard is now firmly in top gear so any amount of improvement could be expected from his runners. Given this is her best trip she has a very good chance of making the step up and as she improves further towards the business end of the race she should at the very least trade shorter in running.
Broxbourne can be backed now for 2 points at 7.5 at the books (coral). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 5.5, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 4.8 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.
Best of luck.
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