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Stoozbet's Trading Blog

A Crowning Trade

04 Jul 13 08:44
About this time every year the Mark Johnston stable seems to hit form, I distinctly remember last year about 30% of my selections all coming from this stable as they went through a purple patch in the run up to Glorious Goodwood. In the last 2 days Johnston has sent out 6 runners, 4 of which have been winners (one of those 6 also refused to race). So I’m keen to be one of the 1st to jump on this bandwagon if it has indeed just started rolling.

In the 17.50 at Haydock I think he has a very good chance with the Dr Marwan Koukash owned Kingscroft. This horse has now dropped to below his last winning mark of 82. Since he rose through the weights initially as a 3 year old Kingscroft has only twice dipped below a mark of 83 and both times he gained a victory at his 1st attempt of a weight of either 82 or 83. This is the 3rd time that Kingscroft has dropped to this weight & last time out he was very unlucky to be be beaten by a neck after trading at 1.01 in running.

Today everything should come together to give Kingscroft his winning chance. He is off a winning mark, Haycock is a track which favors hold up horses and Kingscroft’s consistency tells us that if he can repeat what he nearly always delivers then he has every chance of getting up to land all the money.

Kingscroft has also been available to trade on in each of his last 5 outings.

Kingscroft can be backed now at 5.5 at the books and 6.4 on Betfair. I would expect one of the books to go at least 6.0 (5/1) at some point during the morning. If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 4.4, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 3.85 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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