In the 15.25 at Newbury Lady Nouf is going to be hugely popular given last time out she finished 2nd to the winner of the Oaks, Talent. However, for the Oaks, Talent went off at a BSP of 25/1 which tells you all you need to know about what the market thought about Talent’s performance winning the listed race as her preparation. To add weight to this argument Richard Hughes rode the filly in a piece of work just a week or so before the big race & she reportedly worked terribly. So it appears that Talent really came together at the last minute and a fantastic ride from Richard Hughes landed her the Classic. In my book there is enough doubt about the form of Talent when Lady Nouf met her to downgrade the performance of her 2nd place.
In today’s race a fillie who also finished 2nd last time out in a listed event is the Richard Hannon trained Heading North. Starting with her trading record she’s been available to trade on in 5 of her last 6 races including in all of the last 4. When finishing 2nd last time out she nearly made all of the running and was 3 lengths clear of the field through the majority of the race. You could say that she was made too much use of too early and with Hughes back on board today I’d expect him to try & hold on to her for a little longer. That said the top 2 pulled 5 lengths clear of the field in this race and there is every chance that the market could have things totally wrong in it’s judgment of the respective form on offer when comparing Lady Nouf & Heading North.
With her front running style I’m expecting Heading North to trade much shorter in running at some point & I think there is a very good chance that she could provide a not so unexpected surprise for the readers of this blog.
Heading North can be backed now for 2 points at 8.5 at the books (bet365). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 6.2, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 5.4 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.
Best of luck.
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