In the 1st race at Lingfield (14.00) I feel we can gain a trade from the Mark Brisbourne trained gelding Crucis Abbey. He's been running at a fairly consistent level in lowly handicaps such as these. He's traded at well over 50% shorter than his BSP on each of his 4 runs back from a short break as his run style is to be put into the race on the bridle for as long as possible.
This smooth traveling style is what seduces the in running players to shorten him up around 1f from home as he can often be going the best while others around him are under serious pressure. The issue for him is that he finds little when the pressure is applied. I'm inclined to think that he's better over the 1m trip he runs over today rather than the 1m1f he didn't quite get home over last time out.
Crucis Abbey can be backed now for 2 points at 6.0 at the books (stan james) and at 6.2 on Betfair. If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 5.1, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 4.4 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.
Best of luck.
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