In the 1st race at Redcar the two I've looked at for trading purposes are Economic Crisis & Pivotal Prospect. Both are coming back from a break so fitness is hard to gauge however Pivotal Prospect gained a win in her last race of the season over 7f when she stepped up in trop & appeared to improve for it. She's been put up 4lb for that win and while she can overcome it I'm interpreting the return to 5f on her 1st outing as a negative. It's very possible that she's not quite ready to go so the shorter distance has been chosen to give her a prep run for further targets later in the season.
Economic Crisis has also been off the track since October and you have to start to make the case for this fillie by drawing a line through her last performance of the season. That was in a grade above that which she races in today, it was also on very very heavy ground and came at the end of a long season (she'd been campaigned since March). So she had lots of excuses.
Today the ground is on the soft side but she has a fantastic trading record excluding that last race, being available to trade in each of her last 8 races prior. She acts in heavy ground and has a smooth traveling style where she likes to sit on the heels of the leaders. If she is ready to go today she has a great chance of landing the prize for win purposes but can also get her trading record back on track to begin another progressive season on turf.
Economic Crisis can be backed now for 2 points at 8.0 widely at the books. If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 5.9, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 5.1 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.
Best of luck.
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