stoozbet

This afternoon in the 15.35 at Lingfield Groove On sits at the head of the market due to some simple collateral form. Groove On beat Sewn Up last time out and Sewn Up has subsequently come out & beat Midnight Dream (who re-opposes today).

All very straightforward. However I'm of the opinion that when Sewn Up beat Midnight Dream that the latter was seriously inconvenienced by the way the race was run. The leaders slowed the pace through the middle part making the overall time a slow one. This didn't suit Midnight Dream who wants a strongly run 6f to come through with his strong finish. Midnight Dream still traveled through the race & was matched at 1.12 in running but was just out speeded in the final furlong. If the race was ran at a true gallop then Midnight Dream would have won.

This would suggest that Groove On & Midnight dream's odds should be much closer together than they are currently. The spanner in the works is Lager Time who is a badly behaved character, he blew the bend last time being almost un-steerable before getting up to contest a photo finish. He could do anything but is drawn wide so has every chance of blowing the bend again.

Midnight Dream is well drawn in stall 2 to hopefully get a tow into the race, he has been available at trading prices in 5 of his last 6 outings and has been placed or better in 4 of his last 5 races. He's bang in form & should get a good trip today, if he's still on the leaders heals with around 2f to go then his price should shorten up accordingly to give us a trade.

Midnight Dream can be backed now for 2 points at 8.0 at the books (Betfred, Coral) & on Betfair. If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 5.9, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 5.1 to give you a 1 point profit in every outcome.

Best of luck.

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